Who’s Going to the Hall?– Hitters

There is only one position player in baseball right now whose statistics are good enough to get him into the Hall of Fame, no questions asked. I won’t even mention his name, but we all know who I am talking about and we all know that his off-field endeavors might eventually cost him his admittance slip, just like it cost Pete Rose. That is an argument for another day, another time, and certainly, another writer.

But for the other 99.9% of baseball there is the potential for some argument one way or the other. With that said, here is the definitive list: Who’s In and Who’s Out amongst the top 9 candidates, according to Garrett Rudolph.Ken Griffey Jr.

There really should be no argument here. Griffey should be the sole member of the “Without a Doubt” club, but unfortunately, some people have forgotten just how awesome Junior was before he got homesick and asked to be traded to Cincy. Griffey has lead the league in HR 4 times, including his monster 1997 season when he also lead the league in RBI and won the MVP. In an 8 season span (that included two strike-shortened seasons), Griffey hit over 40 HR in all but 1 year. In essentially that same stretch he knocked in 100+ RBI in eight out of ten seasons. His 547 career homeruns rank 12th all-time (1 behind Mike Schmidt), but more impressive is what he did before he turned 31. No player in history hit more HR before his 31st birthday than Griffey (438), until Alex Rodriguez hit his 439th earlier this year. And, the icing on the cake is that unlike other power-hitting, one dimensional players, Griffey has the glove to match, winning 10 consecutive gold-gloves.

Verdict: In

When all is said and done and the smoke from the drug-scandals has cleared, Griffey will remain in the conversation as to who was the greatest centerfielder of all-time.

Jeff Bagwell

One of the biggest things about Bagwell is that in the age of high-dollar free agency, he has played his entire career with the Houston Astros, and without a doubt, was one of the most feared hitters in the National League for an 11 year span. He had 3 seasons in which he hit 40+ HR, and 8 seasons in which he knocked in 100+ RBI. He won the MVP award in the strike-shortened ’94 season, when he flirted with the triple crown: leading the league in RBI (116), and second in HR (39) and batting average (.368). However, in 15 major league seasons, Bagwell has never lead the league in HR, and ’94 was the only time he lead the league in RBI. Although his career numbers are great, he plays in an offensive era, in which even the 500-HR plateau no longer guarantees Hall entrance. Needing 51 more longballs, Bagwell’s shoulder leaves him little chance of achieving the fabled career milestone.

Verdict: Out

His all-star appearances sum up his career- Bagwell always put up good numbers and was always well-liked, yet he only appeared in 4 all-star games.

Gary Sheffield

Up until this season, Sheffield’s career numbers were almost identical to Bagwell’s. In 40 more games Sheff had exactly the same amount of HR (449), exactly the same batting average (.297), and 53 RBI less (1476) than Bagwell. Oh, and the fact that Bagwell’s name was never mentioned in association with Balco. So, you already know my conclusion on his Hall of Fame merit. But, for sake of argument, let’s say Sheffield has another couple decent seasons left in him (as opposed to Bagwell, who, it appears, does not). Even if he reached the 500-HR plateau, the fact of the matter remains that he has never lead the league in HR, never lead the league in RBI, never won an MVP or a gold glove.

Verdict: Out

In the end, the one thing that might squeak Sheff into the Hall is the fact that the end of his career was better than the beginning. When his eligibility comes up, the image of the productive Sheffield will be more recent in the voter’s minds than say, a Bagwell or a Griffey. Sheffield topped 100 RBI in 7 of his last 8 seasons, only twice in his first 11.

Frank Thomas

The Big Hurt rounds out the class of three Hall hopefuls within 1 HR of each other. Thomas entered the season 1 HR behind Bagwell and Sheffield, and they are all essentially the same age. They have all amassed great career numbers, but Thomas’ single-season numbers stand out head and shoulders above the other two, although he similarly never lead the league in HR or RBI. Consider Thomas’ single season statistics: He knocked in 100+ RBI ten times (Bagwell, Sheffield, and Griffey each did it eight); he hit 40+ HR five times (Bagwell and Sheffield did it five times, combined); he had a stretch in which he hit over .300 in 9 out of 10 seasons (a feat Bagwell, Sheffield, and Griffey failed to equal); and he won 2 MVPs (Bagwell and Griffey won 1 each). Bagwell and Sheffield might have similar career numbers, but neither represented an entire decade the way Thomas did.

Verdict: In

Thomas might lose a few votes because his career numbers don’t necessarily stand-out, but in terms of individual seasons, Thomas’ career is unparalleled.

Mike Piazza

Piazza is, at best, a mediocre catcher behind the dish, but when considering his Hall of Fame criteria only one number matters: 0. Exactly the number of catchers who have more career HR. Just for fun, though, he also has a career average of .310, has knocked in 100+ RBI six times, and still could have a few productive years left if he’d be willing to move to the AL and DH.

Verdict: In

To put up the numbers Piazza has, while playing the toughest position in baseball and suffering the rigors it causes on the body, warrants a first-ballot induction.

Ivan Rodriguez

The closest possible comparison to Pudge Rodriguez’s career is that of Johnny Bench, which would seem to be a shoe-in recommendation for the Hall of Fame, seeing as how Bench is the greatest catcher of all time. While the two are comparable behind the plate (the greatest and second-greatest of all-time), Pudge can’t compare to Bench at the plate. Bench ranked in the top ten in HR and RBI seven times each, including 2 HR titles and 3 RBI titles. Rodriguez has never ranked in the top ten in either category, but he has hit for a higher average in his career than Bench; Rodriguez had an incredible 11-year stretch in which he hit over .297 every single year. His .304 career average is almost 40 points higher than Bench’s.

Verdict: In

Comparing Rodriguez to Bench is unfair, but the fact that a comparison can even be made, warrants Pudge’s ticket to Cooperstown. And, Rodriguez does have one more gold glove than Bench, not that anybody’s counting.

Omar Vizquel

Similar to the situation with Ivan Rodriguez, Omar Vizquel’s career is best analyzed in comparison to another Hall of Famer, in this case, the Wizard of Oz. There is no argument that the two are incredible defensive players, but only a small handful of players have made it into the Hall based primarily on defensive merits, Smith forefront amongst them. His 13 gold-gloves are unprecedented; Vizquel’s 10 rank second, and actually could even be considered statistically superior to Smith with a fielding percentage 6 points higher and about 110 errors less (in 200 less games). But, today’s game is a different game, an offensive game where defense isn’t as valued as it once was. Just ask the all-star voters. Smith appeared in 15 all-star games in a 16 year stretch. Omar has just 3 under his belt. Today’s shortstops are expected to knock in 100+ RBI and hit over .300, not just look good with the glove. Although 2400 hits is nothing to scoff at, the Hall of Fame induction is largely a popularity contest, and good defense is like being good at math. It’s very important, but usually doesn’t make you all that popular.

Verdict: Out

Like a few others on this list, Vizquel’s ballot will remain incomplete until his career is over. At 39, he’s playing as well as ever, leading the Giants in hitting, runs, and stolen bases, and playing his usual defense. If Little O has a few more good years left, he might change the minds of voters.

Craig Biggio

Biggio’s opportunity for induction relies on the magic number 3,000. While the 500-homerun club is ever being devalued, the 3,000-hit club remains a gimme in Hall of Fame voting. Only 1 eligible player with over 2,800 hits is not in the Hall of Fame (Harold Baines), and Biggio surpassed that mark earlier this season. In fact, entering this season, Biggio was only 205 hits shy of joining the club, or about a year and a half, the way he’s been playing toward the end of his career. Unfortunately, Biggio might need that 3,000th hit in order to get in, despite a fantastic career, that has put him in the top 40 in 5 statistical categories (games, at-bats, hits, runs, 2B), with a .285 average, 4 gold-gloves, and 7 all-star appearances.

Verdict: In

If he gets 3,000, there’s no question. If not, he’ll be left at the mercy of the same people who refuse to induct Jim Rice. Current hit tally: 2,864.

Alex Rodriguez

A-Rod is, by far, the youngest player on this list. The reason he’s even on this list is that if Rodriguez suffered a career ending injury tomorrow, he would still have to be considered one of the great offensive talents in baseball history. No player has ever hit more HR before his 31st birthday than A-Rod (444). Only 3 players (Foxx, Ott, and Gehrig) have knocked in more runs before age 31 (1,275), and only 1 player (Foxx) has hit more extra-base hits (816). Top those numbers off with 2 gold gloves, 2 MVPs, a batting title, and 9 all-star appearances.

Verdict: In

Barring a major injury Rodriguez will give chase to every offensive record. Whether or not he achieves these career records will only be playing add-on to a career that is already lumped in with the greats of the sport.

The next generation of position-playing Hall of Fame candidates, and early predictions:

Manny Ramirez (In); Derek Jeter (In); David Ortiz (Out); Jim Thome (In); Ichiro Suzuki (In); Michael Young (Out); Albert Pujols (In); Chipper Jones (In); Andruw Jones (Out); Nomar Garciaparra (Out); Vladimir Guerrero (In); Todd Helton (In).