Well, looks like the Powerball didn’t pan out for us again. Dog it, anyway. Maybe next time. I don’t know about you, but I don’t have 146 million years to wait for the jackpot, so I’ll take the next sure bet: winning at fantasy baseball.
I get a warm and fuzzy feeling this time of year. Winter will be wrapping up it’s tired-ass act soon, pitchers and catchers report to somewhere warmer than where we’re at, and those beloved fantasy baseball magazines start popping up on newsstands, like pimples on the forehead our sporting culture. Should you buy these magazines? Of course. Are they going to help you win? Of course not. They’re only real purpose is to 1) make sure you spell the names of the players correctly, 2) help you remember which free agents went where (hey football season uses a lot of brain storage space), and 3) overload you with so much misinformation and stats that you”ll end up blurting out “gimme Junior Spivey!” with your first pick.
So, how do you win? Beats me. No, just kidding. A real key to winning in any draft (not just baseball) is to not lose focus (i.e. get too drunk) during those all-important middle and late rounds. That’s were I plucked Brian Roberts, Pat Burrell, and Dontrelle Willis last year. If you don’t remember, those guys had pretty good years. Everybody always hypes the A-Rods and Puljoses of the world going into these things. Well, duh. If you don’t know about them, you shouldn’t be playing (but feel free to still get bombed at the bar). Besides, you won’t get to pick them anyway. (Not to get too far off the topic, but why does it always seem that the guy who picks first in these things has no idea he’s in the league until about 3 hours before the draft?)
That all being said, here are a few players you should be able to swipe from say, round 4 and beyond, after you’ve drafted your first-round stud, Victor Martinez (if you’re smart) and a good starting pitcher, but before the Jaeger bombs. And of course, they’re in no particular order or ranking. (That would me too “magazinish” of me).
1. Nick Swisher OF-1B Oalkand A’s
Many owners are a little reluctant to nab rookies and second year guys for starting spots. Prove it, they say. Shove it, I say. Swisher’s average is way too low for fantsy comfort (.236) and he strikes out more than me at my pr– OH STOP IT! But the power potential (21 HR, 74 RBI in only 131 games) and the two position eligibility are very appetizing. Also, there is an embarrasment of riches at both his positions, so go ahead and nab players at weaker positions earlier and let Swisher fall on your lap. If the injury bug hits, you’ll still have options.
2. Rickie Weeks 2B, Milwaukee Brewers
A lot of similarities to Swisher: young, strikes out a lot, kills the ball when he touches it. In 96 games in 2005, 28 of Weeks’ 86 hits went for extra bases, including 13 HR. He also stole 15 bases in 17 attempts, which has me damn near drooling at this kid’s potential. Let the buzz hit Soriano, Chase Utley and old Jeff Kent while Weeks sneaks onto your squad, under the radar for now. This is the last year you’ll get away with it, though.
3. Jim Thome 1B, Chicago White Sox
Even Terri Schiavo had a better year than Thome in 2005. Don’t be jaded by the fact you stuck with Thome through all of those DL stints last year. When he did play, it was even worse. I’m too embarrased to list his stats, but I honestly feel it was an abberation, not a continuing trend. Look for the former Indian to be happy in his old division and bounce back nicely with a solid season in the deep Sox lineup. A player who has been that good for that long just can’t fall off this much. Or can he? If you’re still nervous, draft him anyway as a backup or spot DH him when he plays the Royals and Devil Rays. And quit being a big baby.
4. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Seattle Mariners
Another monumental flop in 2005, look for Beltre to have a much better showing during the second ride around the AL merry go round. He should also be healthier, as he was nursing and playing through a hamstring injury. Another player at a talent rich position who will stick around a few rounds later, waiting to find a roster spot on your soon-to-be-kicking-ass team.
5. Jack Wilson, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
I know, a huuuuuge reach. But maybe not. Face it, Micheal Young, Derek Jeter and Jimmy Rollins will be so long gone, as many other owners will be sobriety wise, by the time it comes to this pick. Wilson, like Thome and Beltre, was never completely healthy in 2005, having had an emergency appendectomy in the offseason. In 2004, though, he was a pleasant surprise, hitting .308 and collecting 201 hits. Little power to speak of, but (I swear I didn’t make this up – go to post-gazette.com/pirates/ if you don’t believe me) Wilson has bulked up from 170 to 205 pounds this offseason. He should have a pretty solid season, getting his average back up (he also had a .350 Sept) with more extra base hits. Remember, he’ll be an absolute bargain, with very little risk and a high potential reward. Could be the steal of your draft. If not, at least everyone will have something to laugh about every year.
6. Jeremy Bonderman , SP, Detroit Tigers
Didn’t think I’d leave out the most important position in fantasy baseball, did you? I can’t say he’s a secret anymore, but he’s right on the cusp of being an absolute stud (in the fantasy baseball sense, of course). Bonderman transformed from 19 game loser to 14 game winner in less than 365 days, so something has got to be going right. Four of those were complete games, so he’s a horse out there (can I use horse and stud in the same capsule?) and he fanned 145 batters. Absolutely waiting to explode, but don’t be shocked if he’s around later than you might think. Fantasy owners tend to be very careful with pitching. My prediction, though, is Bonderman will probably be better than any starter you draft before him not named Santana.
Huston Street, RP, Oakland A’s
Closers are probably the kickers of fantasy baseball. Pretty much a dime a dozen. But for the sake of balance, I’ll put one on the list. A good closer can rack up some points, though, and Street filled a huge void left by Octavio “Doctor Schmocter, I’m having surgery – see you in 2007” Dotel. He notched 23 saves and 72 K’s in just 67 appearances, and this right after winning a college national championship with Texas. Once again, let the dork grab Mariano Rivera in the third round (like you did last year). Show them how much cooler you are now by getting Street with your very last pick.
So now your team is set. Let the good times and the big numbers roll. Don’t worry about everyone making fun of you by making those exaggerated reaching motions every time you pick. You’ll have the last laugh, I promise.
Whether it’s at them or at yourself, I can’t say.