Houston Astros Outlook Part 1 of 2: Pitching

Houston Astros 2006 Outlook: Pitching

By Mark Cooper
[Part 1 of 2]

The Houston Astros have had a successful run the past few seasons. Last season the team went 89-73, and went to the World Series, only to be swept by the White Sox. The season before they came one game away from reaching the World Series, but they lost to the Cardinals. The key to these teams has been Roger Clemens, who joined the team prior to the 2004 year. His past two seasons have been phenomenal, especially for a guy his age. However, Houston could not resign him and that leaves a hole for a young pitcher to fill in 2006. Overall, the consensus is the Astros are worse this year, and that they won’t make the playoffs.

First off, we will take a look at the Astros pitching staff. In 2005, it was easily one of the top 5, probably top 3 staffs in the league. We will start with the one that is gone (for now), Roger Clemens. He had an amazing year with a 1.87 ERA, but only a 13-8 record to show for it due to lack of run support. It was the best season by a pitcher over 40 years old ever. He really should have won within the 17-20 game range. Either way, those numbers are gone, and Wandy Rodriguez is the man stepping in the Rocket’s shoes. Roy Oswalt is the true ace of this staff, something he shared with Clemens last season. Oswalt won 20 games for the second straight year last season, and posted a sub-3.00 ERA for the 3rd time in his 5 year career. In my opinion, he will not be as good as last season. For one, he gave up 243 hits in 241 innings, a career high in hits allowed, and the first time he allowed more than a hit an inning. Second, he did pitch a career high in innings, and the workload could tire him out. I expect an ERA around 3.40 this season from him, and about 280 innings pitched, because the rotation will lie on his shoulders. His walk rate should go down or at least stay the same, but with that his K rate will fall a little too. Even with the higher ERA, a 20-win season isn’t out of the question, since Oz knows how to win.

Next up in the rotation is Andy Pettite. Andy’s year topped Oswalts, as he went 17-9 with a 2.39 ERA, in 222 1/3 innings. It was also a great comeback story, after his 1st season in Houston was ruined by injuries. Pettite is another pitcher that seems to win, he has 7 15+ win seasons, and in 4 of them his ERA was 3.99 or greater. He is a long shot for the hall of fame due to this; as if he can keep it up he has a legitimate shot at 300 wins, but will probably end up in the 270-290 range. I expect another 15+ win season this year, but it will be no fluke, as I predict a 2.96 ERA. Twenty wins isn’t out of the question again for Pettite, but I predict more of a 15-17 win season.

Brandon Backe is the 3rd starter this season for Houston; this will be his second full season as a starter. His first season was alright, but the type of year a team would like for the back of their roto (10-8, 4.76 ERA). The Astros believe Backe, now 27, can step it up and become one of the big 3. He throws 4 MLB caliber pitchers in his fastball, which tops at 94 mph, changeup, cutter, and slider. However, he failed to average 6 innings per start last season. Overall, there are questions surrounding how much of a load Backe can take. I see him pitching about 170 innings this year, which he will have to at least. This doesn’t mean I expect him to do well, I see an ERA around 5, and about 10 wins. His walk rate (3.9 BBs/9 IP) is too high for him to be a great pitcher.

Next up is the probable #4 pitcher, Wandy Rodriguez. Wandy’s rookie season last year consisted of a 10-10 record, and a 5.53 ERA. These numbers are somewhat inflated by his 1st half of the year, 4-4 with a 7.25 ERA in 9 starts. That might have just been adjusting to the MLB. In the second half of 2005, he pitched much better (6-6, 4.44 ERA). Those are decent stats for a back of the rotation starter, although I expect his ERA to be a bit higher than 4.44. My prediction is about 9 wins, and a 5.06 ERA.

Ezequiel Astacio is the odds-on favorite to fill out the rotation. Astacio pitched 22 games for Houston last season, starting 14, and posted a 3-6 record and a 5.67 ERA. Just like Rodriguez, these numbers were inflated by a horrible first half. Astacio was 0-4, with a 9.47 ERA in 7 games, 5 starts, for the first half of 2005. The second half turned out much better for him, 3-2, with a 3.90 ERA. If Astacio can keep those numbers, he should be a solid 5th starter. My prediction for him is 5-11, 4.89 ERA. As of right now this is the probable Astros rotation, and as seen above, it will not be close to how good last years NL Pennant winning team’s was. Another question for the Astros is how good will their bullpen be in 2006.

Brad Lidge will begin another year as the Astros closer, his 3rd with the job. He posted a 2.24 ERA, with 42 saves, and 103 strikeouts in 70 innings pitched. He did struggle in the playoffs, blowing 1 of 4 save chances and having a 4.26 ERA. However, I don’t see him having a meltdown this season. He is one of the best closers in the game, and it will show this year. He did only blow 4 save chances in 46 opportunities during the regular season. I am going with a 6-4 record, 2.63 ERA, and 38 saves. It is a little worse than last season, but it is not like he is falling apart.

The rest of the bullpen has its solid parts. Chad Qualls, Dan Wheeler, Russ Springer, Mike Gallo, and Trever Miller fill it out. Qualls will most likely have a mid 3’s ERA, Wheeler will also probably be solid again, an ERA around 2.80.

Springer was not great last year, with just an ERA of 4.73. He is 37 years old with a 5.08 career ERA; so don’t expect too much better this year. In fact, his ERA will probably be about 5.00, or in the very high 4’s. Gallo and Miller are both guys who are mostly lefty specialists.

The Astros bullpen is overall above average, but that is mainly due to Lidge. The rest of the bullpen is just average, as it has 2 strong arms, and then a jumble of questions.