AL East Preview

By: Rob LaBrie

Now that the Patriots aren’t in the Super Bowl, I seem to be having trouble really getting as into it as usual.  So when all else fails here in New England, we look to baseball.  While the rosters aren’t finalized yet, there’s no harm in taking a peek at what’s going on in the Show.

Recent history shows that the AL East has been dominated mainly by the two powerhouses, New York and Boston.  However, it could be different this year.  The Red Sox have seen many roster changes including first base, second base, shortstop, third base, and center field.  The rotation will see two new starters and the bullpen has also changed around a little bit.  Meanwhile, the Yankees are another year older and will have only one guy under thirty in the starting lineup.  Then there is Toronto.  The Jays have added plenty of fresh faces and are being considered the dark horse in the East.  The Orioles have also changed it up a little, despite what Miggy seems to think.  Of course, there are always those pesky Devil Rays to watch out for…but don’t get your hopes up.
Baltimore Orioles

The Lineup:
The acquisition of Ramon Hernandez could be the best move the O’s made this off season.  He will be Baltimore’s everyday catcher, providing Javy Lopez with plenty of time in the DH role.  This should improve Javy’s offensive production leaving shortstop Miguel Tejada with solid protection.  Melvin Mora and Brian Roberts will be good again this season at the top of the order and Corey Patterson may be able to bounce back from a dreadful season with the Cubs last year.  Jeff Conine and Kevin Millar could be good off the bench as the can both play either first base or the outfield.  All in all, this will be a pretty good lineup that should be able to produce when it’s needed.

The Pitching:
The problem for Baltimore is that they may not be able to record three outs in an inning so that they can get to the lineup.  This rotation is left with Rodrigo Lopez as their ace.  This is not a good sign for any team as Lopez recorded a 4.90 ERA last season.  The rest of the rotation will likely be filled out with Kris Benson, Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera and Bruce Chen.  While Bedard and Cabrera both had good starts last year, they quickly faded.  They are both fairly young with room to improve, but overall it probably won’t be enough in a tough division this year.  The bullpen is also in a shambles without a real closer.  Eric DuBose and LaTroy Hawkins are the only recognizable names in the pen to someone who doesn’t really follow the O’s.  Hawkins is on the downside of his career at age 33 and DuBose has never really done much.  In 15 appearances last year, three of those being starts, he went 2-3 with a 5.52 ERA.

The Final Say:
I believe Baltimore has the offense to be a playoff caliber team, but the pitching just isn’t there.  In the AL East, you need a complete team to get anywhere.  Look for another 3rd or 4th place finish in the division.  

Boston Red Sox

The Lineup:
While Boston’s lineup will certainly look different, it should still manage to produce well.  Obviously, Big Papi and Manny are going to come up with their usual numbers.  The question is whether or not the new guys will be able to produce.  These new players include Mike Lowell, Mark Loretta, J.T. Snow, Alex Gonzalez, and Coco Crisp.  I believe Mike Lowell will be a big deciding factor in how well the lineup does.  The season he had last year probably could not have been any worse so don’t look for him to continue digressing.  It is also unlikely that we will see another version of the 2003 or 2004 Mike Lowell.  My prediction would be somewhere around 20 HR, 85 RBI and a .270 average.  If I were Terry Francona I would use the following lineup: Coco Crisp, Mark Loretta, David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Mike Lowell, Trot Nixon, Jason Varitek, Kevin Youkilis/J.T. Snow, and Alex Gonzalez, who was recently acquired.

The Pitching:
This is a pitching staff with a lot of question marks.  It could be really good or really bad.  The starting rotation will start with Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling.  If Schilling can get back to 2004 form and Beckett can stay of the DL, this could be the best 1-2 punch in baseball.  The rest of the rotation will fill out with Matt Clement, Jonathan Papelbon, and either David Wells, Tim Wakefield, or Bronson Arroyo.  The biggest question mark in the bullpen is Keith Foulke.  If Foulke can also revert to form then this can be a solid bullpen.  If Foulke can’t come back, we could be looking at a closer by committee with Timlin, Riske and maybe Tavarez.

The Final Say:
The lineup should definitely be good enough to get them 90+ wins.  However, I don’t view Alex Gonzalez as much of an upgrade over Alex Cora.  The problem for Boston will be the pitching.  If Schilling, Beckett and Foulke can stay on their game all year, this team could be a division winner.  If these guys can’t stay healthy, this will be a team that won’t get out of third place in the division.

New York Yankees

The Lineup:
Other than adding Johnny Damon to the mix, New York didn’t do anything to tweak their 2006 lineup.  This 9-man lineup will include 8 former all-stars.  Unfortunately for the Yankees, all 8 are over the age of 30.  New York’s biggest risks are Jorge Posada (34 years old and playing the toughest position in baseball), Jason Giambi (35 years old), Gary Sheffield (37 years old), and Bernie Williams (37 years old and playing DH).  These guys are another year older and that’s certainly not helping them.  Johnny Damon has also had his injury troubles that may hit him at any time.  They will have plenty of fire-power if they stay healthy, but it could be interesting.

The Pitching:
The Yankees’ rotation will start off with two aging aces, Mike Mussina and Randy Johnson.  Johnson is 42 and Mussina is 37.  Both of them also had health problems last year.  The rest of the rotation will include Shawn Chacon, Chien-Ming Wang, and Carl Pavano.  Pavano was a major bust last year, while Chacon and Wang had surprisingly good seasons.  You could also see Jaret Wright and Aaron Small thrown into the rotation if it is necessary.  The bullpen looks to be one of the best in the league again with the new additions of Kyle Farnsworth, Octavio Dotel, Ron Villone, and Mike Myers to go along with Mariano Rivera.

The Final Say:
There are certainly a lot of things that could go wrong with this team.  However these are the Yankees we are talking about so Steinbrenner will not hesitate to make changes if they become necessary.  Even with all of the potential problems in having so many aging players, I still think New York will have a 90 win season.  The question is: Will that be good enough?

Tampa Bay Devil Rays

The Lineup:
This team doesn’t look too good.  They added two fairly young and talented guys in Sean Burroughs and Ty Wiggington, but I don’t see them being good enough to save this team.  The outfield should be pretty good with Carl Crawford, Aubrey Huff, and the return of Rocco Baldelli.  They provide a decent top third of the lineup and Jorge Cantu may continue to blossom, but the rest of the lineup isn’t good enough for this team to compete in a tough division.

The Pitching:  
The pitching staff on this team doesn’t look to good either.  The ace of the rotation is 22-year-old Scott Kazmir.  While Kazmir does seem to be a promising player, he would probably still be in the minors on a lot of other teams and he certainly isn’t ready to be an ace.  The rest of the rotation doesn’t look good with only Casey Fossum and Mark Hendrickson being experienced veterans (unfortunately, that doesn’t exactly make them good players).  While the addition of young Edwin Jackson from the Dodgers may be helpful to the bullpen, as a group they are not good enough to be of much help to the rotation.

The Final Say:
While they do have some promising young players on the roster, Tampa Bay is not ready to really compete in the AL East.  If they can hold on to their young nucleus, this could be a contending team in two or three years.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Lineup:
Toronto has made plenty of waves this off season, but when you look at this roster, there are still a couple of blaring holes.  The biggest hole is up the middle.  After losing Orlando Hudson in the Troy Glaus trade, this middle infield is not very good.  It looks like they will be starting two very young players in Aaron Hill and Russ Adams.  However, they’ve stacked themselves on the corners by adding Troy Glaus and Lyle Overbay which should provide enough offense to go along with Vernon Wells, Shea Hillenbrand, Reed Johnson, and Alex Rios.  Another hole in this lineup will be at catcher.  While Gregg Zaun has been decent over his career, he can’t compete with the likes of Jorge Posada, Jason Varitek, and the Javy Lopez/Ramon Hernandez combo.

The Pitching:
The biggest moves Toronto made this off season involve the pitching staff.  A.J. Burnett and B.J. Ryan will be huge this season for the Jays.  A.J. will fit in nicely behind Roy Halladay in the rotation and B.J. Ryan will be the top notch closer that Toronto hasn’t had in a while.  This rotation has the least question marks in the division, with Ted Lilly (the Red Sox killer), Gustavo Chacin, and Josh Towers rounding out the 5. These guys will leave Toronto with a very nice shot at the playoffs.  The bullpen also looks pretty good with some solid players like Scott Schoeneweis, Justin Speier, Jason Frasor, Vinnie Chulk, and Pete Walker setting the table for B.J. Ryan.

The Final Say:
Toronto is looking very strong headed into the season.  They will have a solid offense that should provide enough run support for a very solid rotation.  I’m going to say that the Blue Jays will win this division on the backs of Halladay and Burnett.

Final Prediction

1.    Toronto
2.    New York (NY will not get the wild card)
3.    Boston
4.    Baltimore
5.    Tampa Bay