Well, time for part two of the series and I’m going to surprise you.
No, I’m not firing Joe Paterno, but I’m giving some coaches you’d expect to have 0% a tad bit higher….Big Ten
Illinois 2-4 (0-3) – Ron Zook (1st year)
Chance of getting fired: 0%
From Ron Turner to Ron Zook. At least Zook built some connections while with Florida to help recruiting. It’s only his first year; don’t worry.
Indiana 4-1 (1-1) – Terry Hoeppner (1st year)
Chance of getting fired: 0%
I’m surprised he has not been given a lifetime extension after taking this team to a 4-1 start. Just how bad was Indiana before Hoeppner? Gerry DiNardo, who almost won with Vanderbilt, watched the program digress in his three years.
Iowa 4-2 (2-1) – Kirk Ferentz (7th year)
Chance of getting fired: 0%
After slow start, he reached 1%, but that is back down to zero. A great coached that is loved by even the most cynical Hawkeye faithful. But then again, the Hawkeye faithful still think Iowa could make the title game….
Michigan 3-3 (1-2) – Lloyd Carr (11th year)
Chance of getting fired: 15%
Yes, you read that correctly. Michigan fans have been calling for Lloyd Carr’s head for a couple of years now, and after one of the worst starts Michigan has seen in the last 35 years, you can hear the echo in Ann Arbor. He’ll survive a 5-6 mark this year if that happens, but he definitely has a little heat under his caboose.
Michigan State 4-1 (1-1) – John L. Smith (3rd year)
Chance of getting fired: 5%
Smith messed up ever leaving Louisville. But he has done his job at MSU and has built up the program into a Top 20 team in only three years.
Minnesota 5-1 (2-1) – Glen Mason (9th year)
Chance of getting fired: 1%
That number will skyrocket once this team goes on its annual collapse to about 5%. But honestly, do you think he’ll ever be fired? No. Does he deserve to ever be fired? No.
Northwestern 3-2 (1-1) – Randy Walker (7th year)
Chance of getting fired: 1%
An offensive genius. He’ll be there for a couple of more years if he so chooses.
Ohio State 3-2 (1-1) – Jim Tressel (5th year)
Chance of getting fired: 15%
They have not won a big game in nearly three years and he has had internal programs that have shown that he lacks a grip on the program. If he finishes with a Cooperesque 6-6 season, there will be some talks around town….
Penn State 6-0 (3-0) – Joe Paterno (39th year)
Chance of getting fired: 5%
The critics have been hushes, at least for now. Way to go Joe!
Purdue 2-3 (0-2) – Joe Tiller (9th year)
Chance of getting fired: 0%
Oh come on. Eight bowls in eight years from a program that had not even come close to eight in the previous 100 years. A living legend.
Wisconsin 5-1 (2-1) – Barry Alvarez (16th, and final year)
Chance of getting fired: Not applicable
Alvarez’s hopes for a miracle final season were thwarted by Northwestern on Saturday, 51-48. This team was borderline bowl material back in August and he has done what might be the best of his sixteen coaching jobs in town and definitely best since turning down Miami to build his legacy.
The two lousy, public institutes have first year coaches, Wisconsin is losing a legend, and all of the struggling teams have well established coaches. It is highly unlikely that a Big Ten coach gets the axe this off-season.
MAC
Akron 3-2 (2-1) – J.D. Brookhart (2nd year)
Chance of getting fired: 0%
He is winning with the Zips. Enough said.
Ball State 1-4 (1-1) – Brady Hoke (3rd year)
Chance of getting fired: 15%
Stan Lynch was fired at the wrong time and Brady Hoke has let the promise go to waste. He should have been fired after his first year, but they kept him on. Hoke is a terrible game coach.
Bowling Green 3-2 (2-0) – Gregg Brandon (3rd year)
Chance of getting fired: 0%
He’s not as good of a play-caller as Urban Meyer, but he is a solid HC. Having Omar Jacobs does not hurt any coach, except maybe Ron Zook.
Buffalo 0-5 (0-2) – Jim Hofher (5th, and final year)
Chance of getting fired: 95%
He entered the season on one of the five hottest seats in the nation. Six games away from summing up his horrendously stagnant five years with a winless mark, he needs a mini-miracle to save his job.
Central Michigan 3-3 (2-1) – Brian Kelly (2nd year)
Chance of getting fired: 1%
See team below.
Eastern Michigan 3-3 (2-1) – Jeff Genyk (2nd year)
Chance of getting fired: 1%
They are 3-3. After the last two coaches, this accomplishment deserves a parade. If they finish with six wins…..
Kent State 1-4 (0-3) – Doug Martin (2nd year)
Chance of getting fired: 2%
He’s done a below average job, but it is only his second season.
Miami (OH) 2-3 (1-2) – Shane Montgomery (1st year)
Chance of getting fired: 2%
Bad start has some people wondering, but this is only his first season.
Northern Illinois 2-3 (1-1) – Joe Novak (10th year)
Chance of getting fired: 0%
In 1997, NIU went 0-11 and had no future. Novak has built this program from nothing into a formidable foe in the MAC. He’s not going anywhere.
Ohio 2-3 (1-1) – Frank Solich (1st year)
Chance of getting fired: 0%
They beat Pitt on national television. Next.
Toledo 4-1 (2-0) – Tom Amstutz (5th year)
Chance of getting fired: 0%
This guy need not worry about his security, especially after another hot start. MAC title may lead him onto bigger and better things.
Western Michigan 3-3 (1-2) – Bill Cubit (1st year)
Chance of getting fired: 0%
Doing a heck of a job.
Alright, the MAC was boring. These coaches are low profile and young. Seven of the twelve coaches are in their first two seasons and nine are in their first three. Only one coach has even the slightest chance of getting fired, and we all know he is done.
And to finish off Part II, since I know how much you all care, Florida Atlantic and Florida Internationals, the two babies not just to 1-A, but to all of college football, spare Southeastern Louisiana.
Part II of the Sun Belt
Florida Atlantic 1-5 (1-1) – Howard Schnellenberger (5th year coaching games, 8th year as head coach)
Chance of getting fired: 0%
He literally built this program from scratch. FAU may be struggling this year, but that was after mass graduation left the program crippled. Howard has nothing to worry about.
Florida International 1-3 (0-1) – Don Strock (4th year)
Chance of getting fired: 5%
He too had to build this program up from scratch. However, he does not have a deep run into the 1-AA playoffs on his side. But Strock should not worry, at least yet.
Up next: Big XII, MWC, and UL-L, UL-M
Followed by: PAC-10, WAC, and MTSU
Then: Big East, Conference-USA, Indies, and UNT, Troy
Well, there you have it. As always, comments are greatly appreciated.
