The Beane irony

I wonder how Billy Beane will feel when he’s watching the MLB playoffs at home, with his Oakland A’s floundering to the deep, cold, piteous cellar of the AL West, after he single-handedly abolished any chance of his team making the playoffs when he traded away two of his most electrifying starters, thus entrusting his reputation with the less-than-proven likes of Rich Harden and Danny Haren.

Probably humiliated.

Especially when he sees those two electrifying starters dueling in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series.

No, actually…then he’ll feel suicidal.

And in case you missed it, I did imply that the Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals will be playing for the National League pennant.

The Cardinals will be stomping in familiar ground, only this time, their armed with a deadly gun-slinging, inning eating machine in Mark Mulder and a high-octane lineup to compliment.

As for the Braves, losing stud outfielder J.D. Drew didn’t make their offense any better, but the addition of Tim Hudson polished off an already shimmering starting five.

Last season, the Cards had one mindset: score often, and in bunches. And that’s what they did–6th in runs scored, 7th in hits, 7th in home runs, 4th in batting average and 2nd in slugging percentage. Their pitchers were efficient too, (2nd in opponent batting average and 2nd in team ERA) but it seemed like a facade.

And in the World Series, the facade was exposed and the true Cardinals pitching staff was revealed: a staff lacking a truly dominant starter who can carry the weight of his team on his shoulders.

The Red Sox had that dominant starter in Curt Schilling. We all remember Schilling’s bloody sock last year in New York and countless other heroic efforts the entire post-season. We all remember when the zealous, fastball hurling madman, Roger Clemens, was ringing up opponents and racking up rings with the Yankees. It’s pitchers like these who a team can build around and the Cards may have found their man in Mulder.

Last season, Mulder threw 225 plus innings and achieved a 17-8 record. Currently, Mulder has a record of 7-1 and a 3.72 ERA. In comparison to years past, those numbers aren’t up to par. That tells you how great a pitcher Mulder is capable of being. Not only does he add a devastating array of pitches to the Cards arsenal, a fastball, slider, curve and changeup he can locate consistently, his commanding, imposing, intimidating persona radiates throughout the locker room, which only benefits his teammates. He brings 200 innings to the table almost every season, and has never thrown less than 150 innings in a season. When healthy, Mulder is one of the most dominant yet cunning pitchers in the majors. And right now, he seems pretty healthy: 4th in wins and 5th in innings pitched. If the Cards had Mulder last season, they definitely would not have been swept by the Red Sox.

A lineup with more nitrous than the hot rods in Fast and the Furious, and the long-awaited, desperately needed power pitcher makes the St. Louis Cardinals a trendy pick to repeat and reach the World Series.

But not so fast. The Atlanta Braves added depth in the rotation and maintained the core of an already explosive offense. It’s going to be a tight race this year.

Last season, the Braves pitching was in a league of its own: 1st in team ERA and 4th in OPS. Expect much of the same this season. No, actually, expect more. The recently acquired Hudson has a dazzling 3.29 career ERA and a prodigious 97-42 record.

After a “sub-par” 2004 season, 12-6 record, 3.53 ERA, Hudson is back in all-star form boasting a 3.05 ERA. He possesses a solid fastball which tops out in the low 90’s and a deceptively sly changeup. But its Hudson’s dust-kicking, bottom-dropping, knee-busting splitter that earns him his living. And what does a splitter make batters do? Hit grounders. Hudson had twice as many ground outs as fly outs in 2004, and with a middle infield consisting of Rafael Furcal, the speedy, elusive shortstop with a cannon for an arm, and the rangy, soft-handed Marcus Giles at 2nd, it’s going to be tough to squeak a ball past this tandem. And even if the batters do manage to hit it in the air, the most explosive gatekeeper in center, Andrew Jones, will be on patrol.

Both of these teams have potent lineups, both have a dominant starter as well as a collection of reliable pitchers to backup and support the ace, and both play smart, crisp defense. So what’s the deciding factor, the one component that will propel one team to the World Series and the other to their living rooms? These clubs are near mirror images of each other–a dominant starter, an awe inspiring center fielder that makes scaling over a 10-foot high fence look like child’s play and a team defense with more brains than Bill Gates and Albert Einstein combined. Even their managers are seasoned, hardened, battle-tested veterans.

The answer: depth in the starting five–or, in their case, the starting seven. And guess who has the advantage? No, it’s not the defending National League Champions; it’s the lose-in-the-first-round-when-you’re-better-than-that Atlanta Braves. While the Cardinals have five potential starters at their disposal, like most teams, the Braves have seven hurlers who can start. Count them: Hudson, John Smoltz, Mike Hampton, 25 year old lefty Horacio Ramirez, John Thompson, Jorge Sosa and 21 year old Kyle Davies, who, by the way, has a 2-0 record as starter and a 0.00 ERA.

And while Mulder, Matt Morris, Jeff Suppan, Jason Marquis and Chris Carpenter may be good, in the playoffs, the team with the freshest arms has the edge, and with these two teams so closely related, something as seemingly diminutive as this can have a tremendous impact.

So while Billy Beane sits and reminisces about the terrible mistake he made letting his two aces go, these brilliant geniuses of deception and dominance will be dueling, fist to fist, pitch by pitch, in one of the most memorable and unforgettable NLCS match ups ever–and all Billy can do is watch.