By Corey McLaughlin
As I was watching Emmitt Smith announce his retirement on ESPNEWS on the Thursday before the Super Bowl, I felt sad. Here is the guy who I think is the best running back of all-time calling it quits, fresh off a near 1,000 yard season (which I realize isn’t too spectacular anymore) while playing for the lowly Arizona Cardinals.
I, like he I’m sure, thought about the dynasty that was the Cowboys of the early 90s, not the Patriots of the 00s. Emmitt, Troy Aikman, Michael Irivin. There was nothing better. Moose Johnston, Jay Novacek, Alvin Harper, oh it was great.
I thought about Emmitt’s career record for rushing yards (18,355) as well.
Shortly after that, my longtime New York Jets’ fan instinct kicked in and I thought “Can Curtis Martin break Emmitt’s record?”
Here is Curtis Martin, a guy who has never had less than 1,000 rushing yards in each of his 10 seasons in the NFL. A guy whose rushing yard totals have actually increased over the past three seasons. His lowest total was in 2000 with 1,094 yards. In 2001, he had 1,308, and he was the NFL’s leading rusher this year with 1,697 yards. In addition to carrying the ball extremely well, Martin has also never had a season with less than 240 yards receiving.
Currently, Martin is fourth on the all-time rushing list. His 13,366 yards leaves him just 5,000 more to break Emmitt’s record and be the NFL’s all-time leading rusher.
Let’s now take a statistical analysis to my posed question.
Curtis needs 5,000 more yards. Now, I am not expecting him to duplicate his 1,600 yard season he had this year, only because he is getting older in years. But then again that’s what the New York media said going into this season, so who knows he might do it again. But for these purposes I’m going to assume he gets 1,300 yards next season, which is his average during the past three seasons.
That leaves Martin with 3,700 yards to go. If you divide that number by two, he would need 1,850 yards over the next two seasons to reach Emmitt’s total. That is clearly not going to happen. If you divide the 3,700 by three, you get 1,233.
This means if Curtis gets 1,300 yards next season – which he could very well do – and he averages around 1,200 during his next three seasons, he would be the NFL’s all-time rusher.
Before you say, “He is not going to average 1,200 yards per season for the next four years. He’s lucky if he even plays the next four years,” just think, Martin has not missed a start since 1999, that’s six seasons ago. His numbers have fluctuated from just above 1,000 yards three seasons ago, to his highest total 1,697 just this season. It is very well possible that Martin, if he plays full seasons, which I think he will – he has done nothing to prove otherwise – during the next four years, can average 1,300 yards per season.
It is for these reasons why I state right here, right now on sportscolumn.com that Curtis Martin will break Emmitt’s record and become the NFL’s all-time leading rusher.
2 replies on “Can Curtis Martin break Emmitt’s record?”
unlike emmitt he shouldnt play just to break the record. Emmitt, being touted as a class act, has always seemed less than genuine to me. He extended a career not to get another ring but for a me first record.
Too bad his name stands above Sweetness in the record books. Walter deserved to be tops.
emmitt is a class act I think that Emmitt should be touted as a class act because he is one. During the Cowboys run of Super Bowl wins, he was never flashy or made news, like Newton and friends. And after his prime he stepped aside when asked, allowing Troy Hambrick to play. Yes he complained a little, but only because he wanted to play, that was his passion. I think if all he wanted to do was break Payton’s record he would have retired after the 2002 season with the Cowboys and not go to the Cardinals where he helped RB’s Marcell Shipp and others, to what extend he helped – I don’t know – but he attempted anyway.