The Best Damn Playoff Analysis…Period

I woke up this morning and went out to the porch to grab the newspaper. I noticed two things: it was a little chillier than usual, and the paper felt a little lighter. “This could only mean one thing!” I thought. “It must be October!” (Give me a break, I know it’s the third day of the month; I can’t process those things at 6:30 in the morning).

So with the change in weather, comes a change in baseball. The 32-team league is narrowed down to the elite eight; four from both the American and the National leagues. Every year, the postseason comes and brings along questions that begged to be answered. This year: Who will shine? Who will slump? Can the Cardinals and Tigers pick up their games? Does the loss of Pedro affect the Mets’ championship hopes?

And of course: Who will win it all? Well look no farther my humble subjects, for JDWC has all the answers to these questions and the predictions for the MLB 2006 postseason. (Yeah, I know it’s not timely, but better late than never right?)

ALDS:

Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland Athletics

This will be a very interesting first round match-up because it will feature some prominent tests for both teams. For the Twins, will a rotation consisting of Johan Santana, Boof Bonser and Brad Radke keep them in the games? Obviously, Santana is a lock to keep the game close, but Bonser and Radke, despite solid performances at the end of the season, are question marks. Also, the Twins late-season resurgence was keyed by young players stepping up. Can Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Nick Punto keep playing well? If not, the Twins may be doomed playing against the more experienced Oakland squad.

For the A’s, can they win in the Metrodome, let alone the postseason? They always seem to lose in the first round, even if they build a 2-0 lead (Trust me as a loyal A’s fan; I was not too thrilled about playing the Twins in the first round again). Also, can young closer Huston Street handle the pressure of the playoffs? He had a decent year, but his ten blown saves are not very intimidating. I think if the A’s manage to win one game in Minnesota they stand a good chance of winning the series, especially with Rich Harden and Barry Zito set up to pitch games 4 and 5, respectively.

As a result of my busy schedule and concurrent laziness in my free time, this article is being written after Game 1 of this series. So, conveniently a few of my questions were answered, but there are still many remaining. I was ready to concede the first game to the Twins with Cy Young-bound Santana pitching, but Zito turned in a dominating performance and Frank Thomas carried the offense with his two home runs to give the A’s the 3-2 victory. So yes, the A’s can win in the Metrodome and the postseason and Street passed his first October test.

Watch out for: Eric Chavez. Sure, Frank Thomas will be the A’s spark, but he can’t hit two home runs. He will need back-up from Chavez for the A’s to win this series.

Prediction: I think the A’s will finally break out of their ALDS slump and win the series in four games.

Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees

In my mind, this match-up pits the best AL playoff team against the worst. But the interesting thing is that how the Tigers lost 31 of their last 50 games in the regular season is a mystery to me. Everyone is talking about the Yankees’ explosive lineup and balanced rotation, but if you look across the field at the Tigers, they have a strong lineup as well and a better rotation than the Yankees. The only difference is that the Yanks have more experience on their staff.

We will see if the Tigers can turn themselves around, though it’s not likely considering they enter the playoffs on a five-game losing streak. Because of the simple fact that Randy Johnson might not pitch because of his back, I think the Tigers stand a chance. At the very least, this will not be a series dominated by the Yankees as many expect. I expect the Tigers to be competitive in every game and win at least one at home. On another, random note, Derek Jeter secured the MVP with his 5-5 performance in New York’s Game 1 win.

Watch out for: Bobby Abreu. I would not be surprised if he turned out to be the 2004 Carlos Beltran of this year’s postseason.

Prediction: The Yankees are just too good. Give me the clean-shaven clowns in four games.

NLDS:

San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals

The Padres finished the regular season tied for the division lead with the Los Angeles Dodgers, but were awarded the crown by way of head-to-head record. The Cardinals on the other hand, avoided a monumental collapse and held off the Houston Astros to secure the Central. Now, as much as I’d like to believe that Albert Pujols can carry an entire team to a championship, it’s just not possible. So unless Scott Rolen, Juan Encarnacion and company step it up offensively, the Cardinals are as good as dead.

I’m not surprised that St. Louis took Game 1 with Chris Carpenter on the mound because he’s the favorite to win the NL Cy Young this year. But, Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver is not exactly a solid 2-3 in the rotation. Plus, Jason Isringhausen is hurt so they don’t have a closer with a lot of playoff experience. The Padres have Chris Young and David Wells starting games 2 and 3 and I think they stand a much better chance. Look for the Padres to hold the Cards’, sans Pujols, to just a few runs in each game and get their offense going. I think the San Diego will win two of its three home games and one in St. Louis.

Watch out for: Brian Giles. He will be the focal point of the Padres’ offense and should provide some important RBI’s.

Prediction: The Padres are on fire, so I have to take them in five.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets

This is the series I’m looking forward to the most in the first round because it features the Dodgers, who have been a question mark all season and now enter the playoffs on fire, against the Mets who have been on fire all season and now enter the playoffs with a big question mark. Can they win without Pedro? This match-up will be won with pitching because both offenses can certainly score runs: the Mets and Dodgers are ranked third and fourth in the NL, respectively, in runs scored. Derek Lowe is a proven postseason pitcher and Greg Maddux is well, Greg Maddux. The Mets are without Martinez and also Orlando Hernandez, another successful postseason pitcher, due to injuries. That leaves Steve Trachsel, Tom Glavine and John Maine as the Mets three starters for this series. I think this spells trouble for the Mets.

New York is overmatched when it comes to pitching, but they’re offensive is more explosive than the Dodgers. I think if L.A. gets a decent series from their rookies Russell Martin and Andre Ethier, that they will be spoiling the Mets’ great season. But, if they don’t produce or if Nomar Garciaparra and J.D. Drew suddenly go cold, the Mets quartet of Jose Reyes, David Wright and Carlos-squared will overwhelm the Dodgers.

Watch out for: James Loney. If the Dodgers are going to win this season, they need that spark from the young guys. That job is left to the rookie Loney, who will be filling in for Garciaparra until he is healthy.

Prediction: I just don’t see the Mets pitchers doing enough to control the Dodgers’ suddenly scalding-hot offense. All in favor of an all-NL West championship series say “Aye!”…Aye! Dodgers in five.

ALCS:

New York Yankees vs. Oakland Athletics

The Yankees, fresh off a tough series against the Tigers, will score a torrent of runs in the first two games of this series and take an early 2-0 lead. Back in Oakland, the resilient A’s will win two of three games and make it a series again. Heading back to New York, the Yanks will reminisce on their historic 2004 ALCS collapse against the Red Sox and Mike Mussina will have a stellar performance in winning Game 6.

I expect the Yankees to be on too much of a roll to be stopped by the spirited A’s. Despite their never-give-up attitude, I think Oakland will be over their heads trying to take on the Yankees even with Zito and Rich Harden pitching well.

Watch out for: Ex-A’s Jason Giambi and Johnny Damon. I expect both players to have a monster series, and in the process of eliminating their former team, sending the Yankees to the World Series for the first time in (God forbid! Someone restrain Mr. Steinbrenner!) THREE years.

Prediction: Those damn Yankees. This is the end of the road for my beloved A’s, but at least they will be sent home by the best team in baseball. Yankees will win it in six.

NLCS:

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres

The Dodgers will come into this series well-practiced after beating the best team in the National League, while the Padres will come out a little more flat after beating the Cardinals. I think they will split the first two games in San Diego, and then Los Angeles will take three straight at home behind their hot bats.

I believe that the Dodgers pitchers will overwhelm the weak offense of the Padres and we will see some games that are won by one or two runs. You know, now that I think about it, if the Dodgers can just fall behind by four going into the ninth in every game, they could very well sweep the series. Just kidding, but Lowe and Maddux will be too formidable a tandem for the Padres to top, and I think Jake Peavy will get roughed up in his first start of the series.

Watch out for: Rafael Furcal. The speedy leadoff hitter will be the guy who gets it started every game for the Dodgers. He needs to be the focal point of the Dodgers’ offense if they are going to advance to the World Series.

Prediction: The Dodgers will win in five. Unfortunately, halfway through the champagne celebration, ESPN will report that the Yankees have beaten the A’s in the ALCS and the Dodgers will start just looking at being the National League’s best team as the ultimate achievement of their season.

World Series:

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees

Poor Dodgers. If they would stop running into the Yankees in the World Series, they’d have many more titles under their franchise’s metaphorical collective belt. Believe it or not, this will be a good series. The Dodgers will win the first game behind Greg Maddux and then the Yankees will pour it on, winning three straight, before Maddux pitches again in Los Angeles and cuts the Yankees’ lead to 3-2.

Derek Lowe will stifle the Yankees in Game 6 and Jeff Kent and J.D. Drew will hit late home runs to tie series at three apiece. But then, the Yankees will send their miracle worker, 19-game winner Chien-Ming Wang to the hill in Game 7, and he will pitch a gem. I’m sorry to say that at the end of the day, we will see an image all too familiar: the New York Yankees celebrating a championship.

Watch out for: George Steinbrenner. Watch for him to make every effort to sign Roger Clemens and Hideki Irabu for games 2 and 3 after the Yankees lose Game 1. Sometimes he is more fun to watch than the game itself.

Prediction: Yankees in seven.