Worst Case Scenario

When you plan for every contingency, you always need to consider the worst case scenario. If that worst case scenario comes to fruition, things aren’t going to look pretty even with your best contingency in action.

Welcome to the 2005 Boston Red Sox rotation.

When Theo Epstein planned out his “post Derek Lowe and Pedro Martinez” starting rotation, he knew his options were limited. With a limited free agent pool that saw the two pitchers leaving town at the top of the free agent list and the artful dealer Billy Beane holding three pocket aces in Oakland looking for young major league ready pitching prospects in return, Theo set out to fill out a rotation that would work out over the course of 162 games.Before looking at the worst case scenario come to life, or analyzing the current Sox rotation, lets put some arguments that are being tossed around to rest.

Coming into the 2004 season, negotiations with Derek Lowe had stalled after Lowe and his agent had deemed a 3 year, $27 million dollar deal “insulting”. After a 2005 season that saw Lowe’s ERA among the highest for regular starting pitchers, Lowe only hoped to match that offer out on the market. The Red Sox deal was so “insulting”, Lowe could only find one team that could match the $9 million per year contract with a fourth year tacked on in Los Angeles. While Lowe may have a rebound year, his inconsistency and aloof attitude where deemed too risky an four year investment vs. other options out on the market.

Speaking of risky four year investments, Pedro Martinez’s deal that he signed with the New York Mets is just that. There is no doubt that this year will showcase Pedro’s brilliance and possibly next year as well; and if Pedro would have signed a two year deal, the Sox would have been more than happy to pony up another $14 million per year. But Pedro wanted that fourth year locked in and he got it.

After Theo and his staff came to the realization that neither Pedro or Lowe were going to be with the team in 2005, he set out to rebuild the starting rotation around Curt Schilling for the next 2 years. He put the full court press on Brad Radke and Carl Pavano who both snubbed the Red Sox near the end of negotiations choosing to go to familiar locations instead of to Boston. Of the other free agent options, there weren’t many sure things at short dollars. The likes of Eric Milton, Al Leiter, Kris Benson, Kevin Millwood didn’t really sound like good long term investments.

Let’s also put to bed the idea that since Billy Beane and the Oakland A’s dealt both Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder that they had any chance of ending up with the Red Sox. Outside of Bronson Arroyo, there was no player that would have fit Beane’s desire for major league ready young pitching prospects. Talk all you want about Hanley Ramirez and Kevin Youkilis, but neither of them would have netted one of the “Big Three”.

So with three starters on his roster (Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield, and Bronson Arroyo), and around $25 million dollars a year at his disposal, Theo starting playing out scenarios in his head. Knowing that he would be spending some of the float he gained by Pedro and Lowe’s departures on Edgar Renteria and Jason Varitek, Theo looked at his long term player board and decided to play in the short/mid term.

So that brings us to where we are today. The Red Sox went out and signed David Wells, Matt Clement, and Wade Miller for the same amount of base salary that they would have shelled out to Pedro Martinez. Knowing that Schilling was coming off an injury, Miller would be out for the first couple of months of the season, and Wells, although historically reliable for 30 starts a year was aging and could break down, Theo built this year’s rotation for depth adding John Halama and Jeremi Gonzalez as the 7th and 8th starters on the 60 man roster. Unless three of the top six starters were all on the shelf at the same time, the Sox rotation would be deep enough not to have to dip into Gonzalez and other AAA pitchers.

Well, here we are and Wells and Schilling are on the shelf with Wade Miller still a couple turns of the rotation away from Major League action. Realistically, it may actually get worse with Bronson Arroyo staring a one or two start suspension in the face after the bean brawl in Tampa Bay.

Given all of that, name one other team that could field a competitive team without 4 of its top 5 starters.

Sure, it is now easy for people to pick apart Red Sox management for allowing Pedro and Lowe to leave.

Like Tony Massarotti, who today questions the Sox offseason moves;

    “The Red Sox made some cost-efficient decisions over the winter, which is a nice way of saying they took the cheap way out. And now they have three starters on the disabled list – Wells, Schilling and Wade Miller – and there is legitimate reason to wonder just how good any of them will be if and when they return.”

If you were looking at Lowe and Pedro right now, for this year (and throw in next to boot), given the worst case scenario come to life, it is easy to second guess. But when laying out a long and short term plan, I still have no problem with Theo’s building of the 2005 rotation.

Red Sox Times