Baseball churns to life tonight, and not a moment too soon.
I spent the winter cringing at the slowly expanding boil of steroid abuse, a sham of epic proportions that culminated in congressional hearings more reminiscent of my junior high production of Oklahoma than an actual government inquiry. What’s worse, since I witnessed the spectacle of a spectacled Mark McGwire whimpering, I’ve had the taste of boiled cabbage in my mouth. I’m hoping the Yankees-Red Sox game tomorrow night at least starts the process of cleansing my pallet.I’ve typically avoided writing seasonal predictions on the suspicion that no one really cared about my opinion as to what might happen in baseball. Then, this year, a friend pointed out something important: no one really cares about my opinion on anything. It was an astonishing revelation that liberated me, and I have a very astute friend to thank for it.
So, I thought I might offer some thoughts about the Yankees and Red Sox in 2005. But before I start that, there’s a couple housekeeping matters that I’d like to get out of the way.
First, I’d like to officially welcome the Boston Red Sox to the big kids table. You finally made it! It boggled the mind, that nasty little streak of yours; made level-headed folks question stuff like gravity. In fact, I heard that if you’d lost to the Cardinals there were a whole bunch of guys at MIT who were going to re-write the laws of probability. You know you’re really screwing the pooch when the smart guys feel a need to re-visit Newton’s theories!
Now that you’ve arrived, though, there is an issue we need to discuss. It seems you’ve convinced some folks that the Red Sox are a home-grown, underpaid championship team. Generally, this sort of deception wouldn’t matter much, but now that you’re champions, you really need to be on the level with folks. You were the highest payroll to ever win a World Series, a group of well-paid mercenaries from the four corners of the nation. And it continued into the off-season: you committed over $100 Million dollars to guys like Varitek, Clement, Renteria, Wells, and others.
What it comes down to is this, guys: The Yankees have learned to accept their role as the richest team, and the Red Sox need to get comfortable with their role as the second richest team. Your little identity crisis is getting pathetic. Embrace who you are: a big market team and aggressive free-agent suitors. Try as you might, you aren’t the leader of the little people. If it helps to blame it on the Yankees, go right ahead. Just quit it with the mixed signals. The kids are confused.
Second, I think it’s only proper to apologize upfront to fans in Baltimore, Toronto and Tampa Bay. Nearly every prediction I’ve seen this year has disregarded those teams, and this one will continue that tradition. But it’s really not fair. A lame pitching staff led by an ever-expanding Arubian named Sidney does not give us the right to view the Orioles as divisional speed bumps. Similarly, we should not treat the Blue Jays like red-headed stepchildren just because they think Corey Koskie and Shea Hillenbrand are adequate replacements for Carlos Delgado. And finally, the signing of Hideo Nomo as staff ace in Tampa Bay does not entitle us to treat the Devil Rays like a flock of golf course geese with irritable bowel syndrome. The truth is that none of these teams really has a chance to win. But we should do a better job of making them feel part of the pre-season predictions.
In no particular order, here are some key issues for 2005.
The Yankees have not fixed their lack of clubhouse chemistry. Last year’s team exuded an antiseptic, country-club aura, an unintentional product of Joe Torre theology. For a team that four years in a row has seemed to sew up the AL East title in spring training but faltered in the playoffs, this suggests an important question: do the Yankees behave with exceptional professionalism because of Joe Torre, or because they’ve become dispassionate?
Tino Martinez should inject some vibrancy into the clubhouse, but it’s important to remember that he was not the leader when he was with the Yankees before–he fit in well with a core group of guys who shared a passion for playing the game a specific way. Now in the twilight of his career, he can’t be expected to effectively deal with the surliness of Gary Sheffield, selfish independence of Randy Johnson, or a bizarre outburst from Alex Rodriguez. That falls to Jeter, Williams, Rivera and Posada, who alone have the pedigree to lead the Yankees. But they can’t count on leadership by example. Sometimes it needs to be personal.
Boston, Meet Pressure. I don’t know how much of the whole “idiot” image was real, but it was some smart marketing, and a nice fall-back if Boston didn’t win last year. But now that they have delivered the crown and vanquished the Empire, that image is going to get tired in a hurry if the Sox are down by 8 games in August. No one is going to want to hear about how much beer they drank at the frat party when they are staggering through a 6 game losing streak. This is the real world of what-have-you-done-for-me lately, not “Aw shucks, I hope they break the curse soon.” It will be interesting to see how Johnny Damon and his merry band of revelers respond.
Edgar Renteria is a nice shortstop, nothing more. There are concerns that his career year in 2003 may not have been a coming out party, but an aberration. His average fell 43 points in 2004, his steals sliced in half from 34 to 17. And where do you bat him? Second? His career OBP is .327, 40 points lower than the other candidates to bat second, Mark Bellhorn and Trot Nixon. Fifth? He averages 10 homeruns a season, a precipitous fall-off after Ramirez and Ortiz. Yes, he’s good defensively, but you expect more for $10MM a year. If Edgar doesn’t pull his weight, the absence of Nomar is going to be conspicuous.
At least one of New York’s 3 new pitchers is going to struggle mightily. The smart money is on Wright or Pavano, but Randy Johnson is a nagging injury or a rude reporter away from an off year. Regardless of who it is, when two of your three new guys have but one successful year under their belt, the math just seems to point to someone having a rough year. The silver lining here is the maternal New York crowd that will nurture the beleaguered starter through the tough spot.
Curt Schilling will be the only Boston starter to win more than 14 games.
Clement and Arroyo are going to have good and bad days, like solid, developing pitchers tend to have. Wade Miller might have a good year, but I can’t be optimistic about a guy who seems to get hurt putting on his socks. Ditto for Wells, but I suspect he has someone put his socks on for him.
Hideki Matsui will battle Manny Ramirez for the Triple Crown. As if the rivalry needs any more sub-plots, Matsui and Ramirez will put together monster years, and both will be hanging around the leaderboards in September.
Can Terry Francona convince his championship team that every game is important? Said another way, can the Red Sox shift from nothing-to-lose rebels to defending world champions? Can they understand that the seemingly meaningless game against the Royals in June will impact whether Game 7 of the ALCS is in Boston or New York? Like locker room chemistry for the Yankees, this is the potential achilles heel of the Red Sox. It falls squarely on Terry Francona to deal with it.