MLB Predictions 2K5: AL East Style (Part 1 of 6)

     With the first game of Spring Training in the books, I am here to offer my completely useless, yet hopefully thought-provoking predictions for the 2005 season.  Because I am lazy to say the least (and long-winded), these will be brought to you by the wonderful people in my head through various installments during the next week or so.  Deal with it.  For now, let’s start with the AL East.Disclaimer: I’m an avid Red Sox fan… And I think that about says it all.

AL East: Once again, this will be the powerhouse division. More than likely, two of baseball’s best teams (if not THE two best) will reside here again. Note to the Orioles, D’Rays, and Blue Jays – you may want to seek relocation to the NL or attempt to create a new division. Barring divine intervention, your teams won’t see the light of the playoffs for years. That’s just the way it is.

Yankees

As always, the Yankees are the predicted favorites. But not in this column; and not just because I’m a Sox fan (although that probably has something to do with it… ok, so it has a lot to do with it, so sue me). The Yankee rotation looks great, but just give it two to three months, tops. Then it will start to look very old, very fast. And who is going to take RJ’s place when he needs another bionic knee transplant? Tanyon Sturtze? Here’s hoping! Take aim for the fences boys! And what happens when Brown punches another wall or catches yet another unheard-of disease? And what happens if both go down at the same time? Oh I know. Some bright star from AAA will come up to take a spot. But wait. I believe the Yankees traded AAA, AA, and all future first round draft picks a while back for the rights to A-Rod’s slap play (Honestly, what’s the point of the Yankee’s minor-league system anymore? They should just rename it the bus stop or the Players to Be Named Later Division).

As always, the Yankees will hit the ball very well, but for a 200 Million+ payroll, they have some serious questions. Tony Womack is no Alfonso Soriano. Heck, I’d take Miguel Cairo over this guy. Giambi looks like a scared little kid. He reminds me of a child who’s so scared of the consequences of their actions that he/she continually apologizes over and over again, even though Mom and Dad don’t even know what he/she really did yet. And Tino is no spring chicken anymore. Bernie is way, way over the hill. Sheff’s shoulder will, in fact, fall off one day.

The Yanks will likely take an early division as long as they get through the spring without too many bumps and bruises. However, in the end the depth of the Sox’s starting pitching will finally bring the division crown back to the Sox (not that it really matters, because we all know the Sox and Yankees will likely face off in the ALCS anyway. But at least this gives us four games at Fenway instead of three during the series).

Prediction: 2nd Place, 3 GB of the Sox

Red Sox

I won’t sit here and argue that the Sox are a young and healthy team, but they are younger than the Yanks. And yes, David Wells of the Red Sox (sounds crazy, doesn’t it?) will probably go down for a while at some point, but the Red Sox actually have the depth to cover a few starts here and there. Gammons even mentioned that by July/August, there might be a couple (yup, more than one) Paw Sox (AAA) pitchers ready for The Show. Not to mention, Wade Miller could be a huge pickup mid-way through the season. He’s better than, or just as good as, any pitcher available by July (and if the Brewers let Sheets go, I hope the city of Milwaukee revolts).

Why am I saying this? Because it helps to prove my prediction (it’s coming, I promise). Maestro, drum roll if you please. This may come as a shocker, but I honestly think the Sox will win the AL East by 3 games or so. Not because their rotation is better, but because it has some serious depth (seven, count them, SEVEN proven starters).

Even if the Yankees can stay healthy (and they can’t) the Sox offense could prove to be too much. Remember how amazing this offense was last year? Now add Trot Nixon, a .290/25/90 type of guy. Not to mention, he plays an excellent Fenway Park Right Field (yes, this position is different from the normal right field. Just go to Fenway; you’ll see what I am talking about). Now upgrade shortstop for a full year. While you’re at it, get the man a gold glove too. There isn’t a hole in this entire lineup. Even the bench is going to be pretty solid. This team could be scary-good. Hopefully, they’ll get hot at the right time, just like last year.

Prediction: 1st Place

Orioles

Sorry Orioles, but you’re stuck in third place. And the news gets worse. After this year, payroll will be cut because you will lose fans (and a good chunk of your income) to the Nationals. You’ll hit the cover off the ball this year, but Sammy Sosa can’t pitch for you. You might have some young and promising pitchers, but I think that’s all they are for now. The bullpen is very strong, but the rotation will have a tough time getting the ball to set-up guys night after night. Julio may be able to bring it, but he’s unbelievably erratic. He’s also a complete hot-head and not somebody I’d want on my team. Until the Orioles decide to open up their pockets and sign some free agent pitchers, they won’t have a shot in the AL East.

Sorry O’s, Try again next year.

Prediction: 3rd place, 13 GB

Jays

I like the Jays organization, but there’s only so much you expect from a Canadian baseball team now. It’s as if baseball was a mere fad in Canada, much like acid-wash jeans or over-the-top boy bands. I think the Jays are doing the best they can with what they’ve got. They lost some big bats, especially Delgado’s, but they are basically gaining a staff ace in Halladay, as he was hurt for the majority of last year. If he has another Cy-Young type year, the Jays will be average. If he gets hurt again or is ineffective, it could be another long year for Toronto.

Prediction: 4th place, 16 GB

D’Rays

As for the D’Rays, this just might be the year that Lou Piniella is officially admitted to a mental ward. You have to feel sorry for this entire organization. Their star player, Mr. Rocco Baldelli is out for half the season because he played wiffleball. Wiffleball people. I would have paid good money to see the look on Pinella’s face when he heard the news. Unfortunately, nobody in Tampa seems to want to pay good money to see the hometown team.

There is one upside to the D’Rays. They have an exciting young pitcher by the name of Scott Kazmir. This kid has some serious stuff and can be very dominant at times. He even out dueled Pedro once last year AT Fenway against a very good Sox offense. He won’t be amazing this year, but give it time. This kid will get good, real good. Only problem is, when he finally gets good, the D’Rays will lose him via free agency to the Yankees, unless the D’Rays want to shell out half their payroll to one guy. And you wonder why small market teams are yelling for a salary cap. Go figure.

Good luck in the draft Tampa, you’ll need it.

Prediction: Last place, 21 GB

Next time: AL Central

Yours Truly,

The Boston Rambler