Two weeks left in the NFL regular season and there are too many playoff scenarios to count. What makes the penultimate week great is that the many many tiebreakers means that every game potentially can affect playoff seeding. This is the week where NFL Sunday Ticket earns its keep.

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NFL Week 16 2009 Picks

Straight Up

MATCHUP	Vegas Vinny	BostonMac	RJ	Peso*	Actual
Chargers @ Titans	Titans	Chargers	Titans	Titans
Ravens @ Steelers	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens	Steelers
Bucs @ Saints	Saints	Saints	Saints	Saints
Texans @ Dolphins	Texans	Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins
Seahawks @ Packers	Packers	Packers	Packers	Packers
Raiders @ Browns	Browns	Raiders	Raiders	Browns
Bills @ Falcons	Falcons	Bills	Falcons	Bills
Jaguars @ Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Jaguars
Chiefs @ Bengals	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals
Panthers @ Giants	Giants	Giants	Giants	Panthers
Rams @ Cards	Cards	Cards	Cards	Cards
Lions @ Niners	Niners	Niners	Niners	Niners
Jets @ Colts	Colts	Jets	Colts	Colts
Broncos @ Eagles	Eagles	Eagles	Eagles	Eagles
Cowboys @ Redskins	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys
Vikings @ Bears	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Bears
Prev Week	10-6 (.625)	10-6 (.625)	9-7 (.563)	8-8 (.500)
Overall	146-78 (.652)	149-75 (.665)	143-81 (.638)	124-100 (.554)

Against the Spread

MATCHUP	Vegas Vinny	BostonMac	RJ	Peso*	Actual
Chargers @ Titans (-3)	Titans	Chargers	Titans	Titans
Ravens @ Steelers (-3)	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens	Steelers
Bucs @ Saints (-14.5)	Saints	Bucs	Saints	Saints
Texans @ Dolphins (-3)	Texans	Dolphins	Texans	Dolphins
Seahawks @ Packers (-14)	Packers	Packers	Packers	Packers
Raiders @ Browns (-2.5)	Browns	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders
Bills @ Falcons (-8.5)	Bills	Bills	Falcons	Bills
Jaguars @ Patriots (-7.5)	Jaguars	Patriots	Jaguars	Jaguars
Chiefs @ Bengals (-14)	Bengals	Bengals	Chiefs	Bengals
Panthers @ Giants (-6.5)	Giants	Giants	Giants	Panthers
Rams @ Cards (-14)	Cards	Rams	Cards	Rams
Lions @ Niners (-11.5)	Lions	Niners	Lions	Niners
Jets @ Colts (-5.5)	Colts	Jets	Jets	Colts
Broncos @ Eagles (-7)	Broncos	Eagles	Broncos	Eagles
Cowboys @ Redskins (-+6.5)	Cowboys	Cowboys	Redskins	Redskins
Vikings @ Bears (+7)	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Bears
Prev Week	5-10 (.333)	6-9 (.400)	4-11 (.267)	7-8 (.467)
Overall	105-116 (.475)	108-113 (.489)	105-116 (.475)	99-107 (.481)

* The peso is a coin flip of an old peso to pick the game.

Locks of the Week

Vegas Vinny: (5-9-1, Balance =$440) San Diego has won 9 in a row and could be the hottest team in the AFC come playoff time. So why are the Titans 3 point favorites at home? I have no idea. Normally, I would say that Vegas is nuts on this one but something tells me that Vegas knows something (or a lot of things) that I don’t know. But my LOTW record has been horrendous this year with the thinking that I know more than Vegas. For once, I’m not going to try to outsmart a seemingly crazy point spread and just go with the bookmakers. The only weakness that the Chargers have is in the run defense. Perhaps Chris Johnson will take advantage and keep the ball out of Philip Rivers’ hands. That’s the only way I see the Titans winning this one. But I’ll go against my ten cent head and put all my money $440 on the Titans (-3) to win $400.

BostonMac: (10-5, Balance = $1,425) I am going to ride the mathematical anomaly (or maybe it is expected) of the Atlanta Falcons’ mediocrity. Let the record show that I correctly picked the Falcons to be 3-point victors and continue their string of having a .500 record with a single-digit net points (and often a net of zero). Assuming that the Falcons will beat the Bucs next week, that means that they must lose to the Bills this week by an equal margin that they will beat Tampa Bay. Strange mathematical forces are at play here– it is supernatural, kind of like that “divine ratio” mentioned in the DaVinci Code. Throw in the fact that Bills’ offense didn’t look bad against the Patriots last week and this has the makings of a road upset. I’ll put $55 to win $50 on BUFFALO (+8.5) over Atlanta.

RJ: (5-9-1, Balance = $745) I don’t get the Pittsburgh Steelers. One week they fail to score a single touchdown against the the league’s worst defense, the next week they put up 503 yards passing against the league’s 2nd best pass defense. I do know one thing: Pittsburgh won’t bother trying to run the ball against the Ravens, and it will play right into Baltimore’s hands. Also, the Steelers pass defense is still terrible and they will still be without Troy Polamalu (very unlikely to play). They also didn’t have any answers for Ray Rice in the fourth quarter and overtime in the previous meeting. Despite the early Festivus Miracle of a dramatic last second win against the Packers and the fact that the playoff scenarios actually favor them if they can win out, the Steelers are DONE. I repeat: DONE. That’s D-O-N-E DONE. The Steelers haven’t covered in their last seven games despite being favorites in all of them. Why would that change now? Baltimore (+3) has been playing like a playoff team recently while the Steelers have vomited all over what was once a promising chance to defend their title. $220/200 and Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!