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2009 NFL Week 14 Picks and Podcast

There are some great early and late games this week so Sunday should be a fine football day. Clear out your calendar and make sure you don’t have to leave the house, the playoff race is heating up. The featured games this week are Denver at Indy, Cincy at Minnesota, San Diego at Dallas, and Philly at the NY Giants.

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NFL Week 14 2009 Picks

Straight Up

MATCHUP Vegas Vinny BostonMac RJ Peso* Actual
Steelers @ Browns Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers
Lions @ Ravens Ravens Ravens Ravens Ravens
Jets @ Bucs Jets Jets Bucs Jets
Broncos @ Colts Colts Colts Colts Colts
Saints @ Falcons Saints Saints Saints Saints
Packers @ Bears Packers Packers Packers Packers
Dolphins @ Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars
Bills @ Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs Bills Chiefs
Seahawks @ Texans Texans Texans Texans Texans
Panthers @ Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots
Bengals @ Vikings Vikings Vikings Bengals Vikings
Rams @ Titans Titans Titans Titans Rams
Redskins @ Raiders Raiders Redskins Raiders Redskins
Chargers @ Cowboys Chargers Chargers Chargers Cowboys
Eagles @ Giants Eagles Eagles Giants Eagles
Cards @ Niners Cards Cards Niners Cards
Prev Week 8-8 (.500) 9-7 (.563) 9-7 (.563) 7-9 (.438)
Overall 125-67 (.651) 127-65 (.661) 124-68 (.646) 106-86 (.552)

Against the Spread

MATCHUP Vegas Vinny BostonMac RJ Peso* Actual
Steelers @ Browns (+10) Browns Browns Steelers Steelers
Lions @ Ravens (-13) Lions Lions Ravens Ravens
Jets @ Bucs (+3.5) Jets Jets Bucs Jets
Broncos @ Colts (-7.5) Colts Colts Broncos Colts
Saints @ Falcons (+10.5) Saints Falcons Falcons Saints
Packers @ Bears (+3) Packers Packers Packers Bears
Dolphins @ Jaguars (-3) Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars
Bills @ Chiefs (-1) Chiefs Chiefs Bills Chiefs
Seahawks @ Texans (-6) Texans Texans Seahawks Texans
Panthers @ Patriots (-13.5) Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots
Bengals @ Vikings (-7) Bengals Bengals Bengals Bengals
Rams @ Titans (-13) Titans Rams Rams Rams
Redskins @ Raiders (+1) Raiders Redskins Raiders Redskins
Chargers @ Cowboys (-2.5) Chargers Chargers Chargers Cowboys
Eagles @ Giants PK) Eagles Eagles Giants Eagles
Cards @ Niners (+3) Cards Cards Niners Cards
Prev Week 3-13 (.188) 6-10 (.375) 8-8 (.500) 4-12 (.250)
Overall 92-98 (.484) 93-97 (.489) 95-95 (.500) 93-97 (.489)

* The peso is a coin flip of an old peso to pick the game.

Locks of the Week

Vegas Vinny: (5-8, Balance =$550) I believe the metaphorical expression is dead in the water. And if I were actually betting these games, you’d find me somewhere dead in the Delaware river. Even though I’m down $450 for the season and I seem to have lost the touch, I’m going to give you my lock of the week and hope that I didn’t just jinx your team. The team I’m going with this week are the Arizona Cardinals. They have been playing outstanding on the road, especially Kurt Warner, and after their beatdown of the Vikings, they are my darkhorse to win the NFC again this year. With all the attention on the Saints and Vikings, everyone is looking past last year’s NFC Champs. And all the Cards have done is get better.

I really don’t understand why this is only a 3 point spread. Arizona looks great on defense and their offense is always clicking. On top of that, rumors are that the Niners have quit on Singletary. Gimme Arizona in a blowout. $110 to win $100 on the Cards (-3).

BostonMac: (9-4, Balance = $1,380) I like the way the Packers seem to be clicking and firing on all cylinders, seemingly at the right time. Their offensive line is finally protecting Aaron Rodgers, who continues to have a fine Pro Bowl-caliber season with a minimum of mistakes. With the way their offense is playing and the physicality their defense plays with, they are playing as well as any team in the league right now. Meanwhile over on Lake Michigan, Jay Cutler finally doesn’t throw up a stinkbomb, but passes for a whopping 143 yards against an awful Rams team last week. Packers should keep it rolling. I’ll put $110 to win $100 on GREEN BAY (-3) over the Bears.

RJ: (5-8, Balance = $855) Being from Pittsburgh, the 2009 edition is my least favorite of my football watching lifetime (goes back to 1983). They are arrogant, poorly coached with more guys flapping their gums about leadership than actually doing anything of substance on the field. Certain players have horribly regressed (Lamarr Woodley, Ike Taylor, Ryan Clark, Jeff Reed) while others are too old (Hines Ward, James Farrior Tyrone Carter) and some just plain stink (William Gay, Lawrence Timmons). Of course, the guys who are performing (Rashard Mendenhall, Melwede Moore, Santonio Holmes and Heath Miller) are being under-utilized while the MVP of the team (Ben Roethlisberger) is being unfairly chastised by horrible teammates (Ward) for being legitimately injured.

Can you tell I’m pissed at the Steelers?

That rant aside, the Football Gods have smiled–for some unknown reason–on Pittsburgh this week. Luckily, they have some things going for them in a Thursday night tilt in Cleveland. First, it’s Cleveland and they’re playing in Cleveland, where they’ve lost once in the last 15 years. The Browns offense has been a little frisky (come back, Trevor) by scoring 37 against the Lions and backdooring the mighty Chargers last week. Second, the weather is going to be awful in Cleveland (low teens and 35 mph winds) so it should favor the Steelers who do have a solid running game while the Browns have none. Also, I never go against the Tomlin Prime Time Thing (13-2 but the last loss was under extreme circumstances and 4-0 in their last 4 Thurs. nights). The reeling Steelers (-10) seem to be giving up too many points for their recent struggles, but the Browns are still way overmatched in this game. Plus, a TD and FG isn’t really that much of a margin. 110/100

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