Coaches on the Hot Seat

It is never too early to start speculating which NFL head coaches are in trouble.  With up to a third of the teams changing coaches each year, keeping up with the status of head coaches has become a habit for serious NFL fans.  Some casinos have started betting lines on who will be the first coach fired.  As another NFL season is about to begin, it is appropriate to evaluate the state of each Head Coach. 
Below is a list of all 32 NFL head coaches, starting with who is most likely to leave his current team first, whether he leaves on his own or is forced out.  The further down the list a coach is, the longer he is likely to stay.  Among the factors that went into this list:

-Length and money owed current contract.

-Ownership style.

-Coaching style and philosophy.

-Miscellaneous factors surrounding coach, owner, team, etc.

1.  Mike Tice, Minnesota Vikings – There are a lot of coaches saddled with obvious challenges, but Tice does not have challenges, he has problems.  Tice is entering his final year of his contract making a pathetic $600,000.  Tice has to work for an owner, Red McCombs, who bought the Vikings mainly as an investment, yet will not hesitate to take rash actions.  McCombs wants to stay competitive to attract a new stadium deal, yet keep costs low to attract potential buyers.  This is a catch-22 for Tice.  If he does average or worse, he’ll get fired.  If he does well, McCombs will refuse to pay him market value, and he could be looking for work next year.  Waiting in the wings is Defensive Coordinator Ted Cotrell.  Cotrell has an inside track because he will work cheap, and McCombs will score points with the league office by hiring a minority coach, which could come in handy if McCombs needs support to move the team.  Basically, Tice cannot do anything to save his job.

2.  Marty Schottenheimer, San Diego Chargers – Schottenheimer simply does not have the talent to win in the AFC West.  One of the main reasons he is probably coaching is because the Redskins are paying $1.5 million of his $2.5 million salary.  With the Spanos family eyeing a new stadium deal, either in San Diego or Los Angeles, a fresh coach will likely be needed to build support.

3.  Dick.Vermeil, Kansas City Chiefs – Vermeil can coach the Chiefs as long as he wants.  However, one has to question how much longer he wants to put up with the long hours, and being away from his Pennsylvania ranch.  Late last season, Vermeil complained about being tired, yet re-signed for two more seasons.  Why would Offensive Coordinator Al Saunders turn down the University of Nebraska job if Vermeil is not planning to retire in two seasons, at most.

4.  Jim Haslett, New Orleans Saints – Haslett won the NFC West in his first season with the Saints, and has not made the playoffs since.  On offense, the Saints have the potential to put points up with anybody, yet have nothing to show for it.  With two more years on his contract after 2004 at $3 million per year, owner Tom Benson could decide a change is needed if they do not make the playoffs.  Being in the same division with the last two NFC Super Bowl representatives and Michael Vick makes that task daunting.

5.  Mike Holmgren, Seattle Seahawks – Making the playoffs last year only turned up the heat on Holmgren.  Management will see a weakened Rams team and the 49ers rebuilding and expect the Seahawks to dominate the NFC West.  The problem is a weakened Rams team is still better than 60% of the league, the 49ers still have leftover talent from the Bill Walsh regime, and the Cardinals are going to be ready to make some noise.  Even if the Seahawks win the NFC West, if they are not playing in the second round of the playoffs, Holmgren could be the fall guy.  President Bob Whitsit has no problems firing successful coaches, based on his past.  When he was in the NBA, he fired coaching legend KC Jones, PJ Carlesimo, despite making the playoffs three straight years, and Mike Dunleavy, despite making the playoffs four straight years.  If the Seahawks do dump Holmgren, he will not be out of work long.

6.  Dave Wannstedt, Miami Dolphins – If this article was written three weeks ago, he would be much higher on the list.  Despite him appearing to be headed for unemployment, this perception is outright false.  If owner Wayne Huizenga really wanted Wannstedt gone, he would have fired him last season, or at best would have given him a one-year extension.  Instead, Wannstedt not only got a two-year extension, but has his buddy, Rick Spielman, as the new General Manager.  Factor in the Ricky Williams sideshow, the David Boston and Zach Thomas injuries, and the tough AFC East competition, and Huizenga will have plenty of excuses to keep his coach.  However, if the Dolphins play “lazy,” and the fan base starts to erode, all bets are off.

7.  Mike Sherman, Green Bay Packers – For some reason, the Packers have not announced a contract extension beyond this year for Sherman.  Given Sherman’s record, if an extension has not been agreed to already, it probably will be agreed to soon.  However, keep in mind that Sherman is the only Packers coach to lose a playoff game at Lambeau Field.  Also, with the recent death of personnel guru Mark Hatley, Packers’ brass might encourage Sherman to either be GM or Coach.

8.  Butch Davis, Cleveland Browns – Davis has been put on the hot seat a bit prematurely.  There is no question owner Randy Lerner is setting Davis up to sink or swim by accommodating his every wish.  2004 will be a year to establish the new offensive philosophy and players.  Lerner will not pay Davis nearly $10 million over three years NOT to coach.  However, Davis better contend for the AFC North in 2005. 

9.  Dom Capers, Houston Texans – Capers seat is not hot yet, but the heat could be turned up soon.  The pieces are in place to field a competitive team, but they will be hard-pressed to make noise in the NFC South with the Colts and Titans penciled in for at least 10 wins each.  Owner Bob McNair wants to see reasonable progress in 2004, and the team in playoff contention by 2005. 

10.  Dennis Erickson, San Francisco 49ers – Erickson thought he was stepping in to coach a Super Bowl contender.  Now he is faced with helping rebuild a team with a GM in Terry Donahue that has yet to prove himself as a topnotch talent evaluator.  At least he has $10 million coming his way over the next four years.

11.  Bill Parcells, Dallas Cowboys – How long before owner Jerry Jones starts taking control of the team again?  As long as the Cowboys are building towards contending for the NFC Championship, Jones will let Parcells have free reign.  What will happen when the Cowboys go to the NFC Championship, possibly as early as the 2005 season?  If Jones starts meddling with the team again, Parcells will walk.

12.  Mike Martz, St. Louis Rams – It seems unfair that a coach with a career record of 43-24 with one Super Bowl appearance could be in any kind of danger of losing his job.  However, if Marc Bulger does not live up to his contract, and Martz keeps up his unorthodox playcalling, a change might be considered.  The Rams still remember that Martz helped them win the Super Bowl during the 1999 season, and will not have a fast trigger.  If Martz will eventually give up final say on personnel, he will likely be with the Rams for a while.

13.  Norv Turner, Oakland Raiders – As long as Al Davis owns the Raiders, can any coach feel secure?  Turner has a three-year contract, and a decent reputation going back to his Redskin days.  Turner’s fate will be determined in large part by how the salary cap can be managed over the next few years.

14.  Herman Edwards, New York Jets – Edwards was recently signed to a contract through 2007.  By making the playoffs two of his first three seasons with the Jets, and having a quarterback with star potential, Edwards should have decent job security.  However, GM Terry Bradway is in his final year of his deal.  If there is a new GM in 2005, he may eventually want his own coach.  Edwards $1.4 million salary would be easy to eat after 2005 if a change were to be made. 

15.  Mike Shanahan, Denver Broncos – If Shanahan stays through the 2006 season, he will have been with the Broncos for 12 seasons.  Most owners have a theory that a coach’s maximum shelf life with a team is about 10 years.  Keep an eye on the University of Florida job, which could open up by 2006.  If Shanahan feels the Broncos are not on the cusp of the Super Bowl when his alma mater comes calling again, he will bolt to Gainesville.

16.  Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville Jaguars – The Jaguars have been hyped as a team on the rise.  People forget that the Colts and Titans play in the same division.  People also forget that Byron Leftwich was not only a rookie starting quarterback, but a training camp holdout in his first year.  These two factors have usually resulted in death sentences for promising quarterback careers.  Also, Del Rio has been in coaching just seven years.  One has to wonder if he has enough savvy to guide a team against two superpowers with a young quarterback. 

17.  Joe Gibbs, Washington Redskins – Gibbs has a hefty salary, and widespread support among fans, therefore he has a great deal of leverage against owner Dan Snyder.  However, Gibbs is 63, and he does have diabetes, which might prevent him from working 20-hour days.  If Gibbs cannot prepare like he feels he needs to coach NFL games, he might not stick around more than two or three years, which could be when the Redskins are forced to break up the team due to the salary cap.

18.  Bill Cowher, Pittsburgh Steelers -  Cowher recently signed a two-year extension through 2007.  Whether he remains longer than  three years could depend on how well new quarterback Ben Roethlisberger develops.  Ownership seems to want to keep Cowher, but he needs to get the team back to contending for the playoffs.  This might be a tall order with the Bengals rising, and the Ravens needing just good quarterbacking to be a serious Super Bowl threat.

19.  Jeff Fisher, Tennessee Titans – The window of opportunity could be closing for the Titans.  With an opportunity to make a serious run in 2004, Fisher could see an opportunity to acquire a GM/Coach role on the west coast, with either the 49ers, or the new Los Angeles franchisee  GM Floyd Reese might need to be sacrificed if the Titans want to keep Fisher.  Since Fisher has the demeanor to coach for 20-25 more years and possibly become the all-time winningest coach in the NFL, the Titans might be inclined to give him the throne before he looks elsewhere.

20.  Dennis Green, Arizona Cardinals – If Green can put together a playoff team by 2006, when the Cardinals move into their domed stadium, Green’s future should be safe.  Keep in mind owner Bill Bidwell is a straight-laced person, and Green’s history on and off the job has been controversial, ranging from paternal issues to an attempt to force out the previous ownership group of the Vikings while coaching for them.  If Bidwell values good vibes and perception over winning, Green might be gone by 2009.

21.  Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals – As long as Lewis is coach, the Bengals certainly will not be the worst team in the NFL.  If owner Mike Brown is serious about winning, he will pour money into the organization on a consistent basis.  If Brown tightens the pursestrings, Lewis will not break through.

22.  Jon Gruden, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – With his buddy Bruce Allen as the new GM, Gruden’s future with the Bucs is fairly secure.  One just has to wonder, how long will Gruden keep turning down his dream job at Notre Dame.

23.  Lovie Smith, Chicago Bears – Smith will only be successful if GM Jerry Angelo gives him good players.  The jury is still out on Angelo’s ability as GM. 

24.  Jim Mora, Atlanta Falcons – A new coach could not ask for a better situation, which includes an accommodating owner, a great GM who supports his coaches, and a franchise quarterback.  If Mora fails in Atlanta, it will be his own fault.

25.  Mike Mularkey, Buffalo Bills – In a similar situation as Mora, only without the franchise quarterback.  If Mularkey can get to the playoffs with Kordell Stewart and Tommy Maddox running his offense, he should have no problem taking the Bills to the postseason on a consistent basis.

26.  Brian Billick, Baltimore Ravens – Billick has proven himself worthy to coach the Ravens for as long as he wants.  New owner Steve Bisciotti recently extended him through at least 2007.  As long as GM Ozzie Newsome is there, Billick will be a Raven.

27.  Tony Dungy, Indianapolis Colts – As long as Peyton Manning is playing quarterback, Dungy will have a job with the Colts.  Although Dungy has recently talked about leaving the NFL to focus on his family, it will be hard to walk away from millions of dollars and an elite quarterback.  If Dungy chooses to coach for the long-term, he will eventually be the all-time winningest coach in the NFL.

28.  John Fox, Carolina Panthers – When Fox was hired in 2002, the Panthers were coming off a 1-15 season.  Two years later, he is coming off a Super Bowl appearance, and has a new five-year contract.  Fox can stash away his resume for a while.

29.  Tom Coughlin, New York Giants – The primary reason Coughlin was fired from the Jaguars was because ownership thought a fresh face would help fan support.  This will not be an issue with the Giants.  As soon as GM Ernie Accorsi retires, Coughlin will assume the position outright, or have great influence over the new GM.  Coughlin will be king, and he will contend for a Super Bowl by 2007.

30.  Bill Belichick, New England Patriots – Belichick has overseen the construction of possibly the NFL’s next dynasty.  If Belichick wins another couple Super Bowls, he will establish himself as a coaching legend.  An interesting thing to watch would be how well would Belichick do if personnel guru Scott Pioli leaves to have complete control of another team.

31.  Andy Reid, Philadelphia Eagles – He has total control, a supportive owner, a president who refuses to mortgage the future, and a franchise quarterback.  The only way he might leave is if his alma mater, BYU, strongly requests his services.  If the Eagles win the Super Bowl, he would be more inclined to accept the BYU offer if it ever comes.

32.  Steve Marriucci, Detroit Lions – Marriucci works for an owner, William Clay Ford, who kept Wayne Fontes as coach for eight seasons, is currently keeping GM Matt Millen despite a 9-39 record during his tenure, and was intending to keep previous coach Marty Mornhinweg and his 3-29 record until home-state boy Marriucci was free to sign on.  Since this coach has a winning pedigree, it can be assumed that as long as Ford is alive, Marriucci will be Head Coach.