Sportscolumn’s 2006 NFL Predictions – NFC edition

Outside of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, there is no better span on the sporting calendar than the opening weekend of the NFL season. No more guessing how preseason performance really translates into regular season play, no more thinking about who will make the 53 man roster, no more praying that a key player on your team doesn’t get hurt in a meaningless game. It’s just you, your remote, perhaps a cold brew, and the joy of Christmas in September. And while I appreciate the Thursday night teaser, I’d almost rather the NFL not have gone to that. It’s like getting an appetizer and then having to wait 3 hours for the main course to arrive. Just fast forward me to Sunday already!

But before we can start week 1, we need the obligatory 2006 NFL predictions. Here it is folks, what you’ve been waiting for… the official Sportscolumn 2006 NFL Predictions. I have spent all weekend digesting stats, schedules, rosters… and lots of alcohol. Depending on how much you agree with these predictions, is how much of the relative mix of those things went into the picks. I predicted game by game for each of the 17 weeks and came up with the final standings and records of every team in the NFL. We’ll kick it off with the NFC. NFC EAST
PHI 11-5
NYG 11-5
DAL 10-6
WAS 6-10

This is the division that almost everyone claims will be the toughest in the NFL with every team having a chance to win the division. I agree with this sentiment with the exception of the Washington Redskins. We can eliminate the Redskins from division title consideration because of one man: Mark Brunell. Already on his way to becoming a stiff in Jacksonville, Joe Gibbs inexplicably thought the 35 year old could be the answer to his quarterback needs. When Brunell goes down, and he will go down, who will keep the Redskins ship afloat? Jason Campbell? I don’t think so. I originally expected Washington to get out to a fast start and then settle down to a 8-8 season but with the injury to Clinton Portis, this looks like a disaster of a year for the Redskins. Dan Snyder can buy all the free agents and coaches (Al Saunders) he wants, it won’t get the Redskins to the playoffs this year.

Now we have a 3 way logjam between the Cowboys, Giants and Eagles. Let’s talk about the Cowboys. Drew Bledsoe has been given a great weapon in Terrell Owens but he won’t be able to get TO the ball if he’s lying flat on his back. Bledsoe was sacked 49 times last year and the Cowboys made no significant moves to ensure he stays on his feet this year. Still, the addition of Owens makes them a 10 win team and nets a wild card berth.

The Giants defense should be markedly better with the addition of LaVar Arrington (if he stats healthy) and Sam Madison, plus the return of Antonio Pierce. But as Michael Strahan said, the Giants go as Eli goes. Everyone expects the Giants to repeat as the division champs because of the “growth” of Eli Manning. Well, I’m not sure what everyone’s talking about. Eli regressed horribly in the second half of 2005 and the Giants did not improve themselves on the offensive side of the ball. Tiki is getting older, Toomer is getting older, and Plaxico still disappears in big games. Don’t get me wrong, the Giants are still a very talented team but their schedule is absolutely brutal. People are already talking about the Manning torch being handed over from Peyton to Eli on opening weekend. Don’t believe it for a second. Peyton won’t let that happen, Edge or no Edge. The Giants will stumble out of the gate but they are talented enough to rally and win 11 games. Good enough for a tie in the standings but they lose out to the Eagles in a tiebreaker.

Ahhh the Eagles. Written off and left for dead by every national media outlet this year because of the disaster that was 2005. Well, Donovon McNabb has something to say about that. He’s looked stellar in his limited preseason appearances and the addition of Donte Stallworth gives the Eagles offense the speed demon they sorely needed. Stallworth is no TO in terms of ability but he also won’t wreck the team. On defense, the Eagles have potentially the best d-line rotation in the league. This should help out the beleaguered secondary that last year was injured and torched. The only weak spot on the Eagles defense are the linebackers. If Jeremiah Trotter can stay healthy, the Eagles defense could be the best defense in the NFC. All this coupled with an easy first half of the schedule means the Eagles get out to a fast start. They have a rough stretch at the end of the season (3 division opponents in a row on the road) but hang on enough to win the division.

NFC North
CHI 11-5
DET 6-10
MIN 5-11
GB 3-13

The NFC North will be the biggest joke of a division this year. The Bears with that killer defense are the only team without a new coach. And these aren’t just new coaches, these are rookie coaches. The reason that teams get new coaches is that they simply are not very good. And the Lions, Vikings and Packers do not have the talent of say the Dolphins last year to make a run at the division title or even a wild card berth. Unless the Chicago Bears completely melt down (last I checked, TO wasn’t on their team), they should be able to coast into the playoffs with a first round bye. Rex Grossman will probably get hurt again but this year the Bears brought in Brian Griese who is more than capable of just doing enough not to lose a game. When your defense gives you the ball on the opponent’s 30 yard line, it’s hard to mess it up.

Minnesota and Detroit should be very mediocre this season with Brad Childress and Rob Marinelli taking over head coaching duties. Jon Kitna is a good addition to the Lions offense (hell, anyone is better than Joey Harrington) and Mike Martz should be able to set him free a little bit. I give Detroit a slight edge over Minnesota because of a marginally better defense and the edge at RB of Kevin Jones over Chester Taylor.

Finally, we have the Green Bay Packers. Javon Walker wasn’t kidding when he said they’d be lucky to win 4 games. As a matter of fact, I only have them winning 3 games this season. While we might see the resurrection of Ahman Green, Brett Favre just continues to get worse year after year. How many times will we see Favre attempting to force is to Donald Driver only to get picked off? It’s not going to be pretty for Mike McCarthy — you know, the guy who somehow got a head coaching job even though he was responsible for the SF offense and Alex Smith’s 1 TD.

NFC West
SEA 12-4
ARI 9-7
STL 8-8
SF 5-11

Everyone assumes that the loss of Steve Hutchinson, the Super Bowl hangover, and the cover of Madden 2007 will do in the Seahawks this year. Don’t you believe it. The Seahawks got stronger on defense this season with the addition of Julian Peterson and are returning 19 out of 22 starters. The loss of Joe Jurevicius might hurt them in the sense that he was that x-factor receiver that always seemed to come through in the clutch despite not being the fastest or the most talented receiver on the field. But Shaun Alexander will make up for that with another MVP caliber performance… if he doesn’t break a leg. In addition, Hasselbeck is another year into the system and Nate Burleson gives them a credible threat across from Darrell Jackson. Still the class of the NFC West, the Seahawks coast into a #1 seed with a 12-4 record.

Arizona has been the chic pick the last couple of years now to “make a run” in the NFC West. (I think this is because everyone secretly cheers for the underdog Cardinals. It’s hard to hate a team that has always been like the retarded kid in the back of the class.) This year is no exception as some people are even picking them over the Seahawks. I like the addition of Edgerrin James and the Cardinals still have the best WR duo in the NFC but can Kurt Warner really get it done? Behind that offensive line? I don’t think so. Once teams are able to knock Warner down a few times, they can key in on Edge and take away both the run and the pass. The Cards are talented enough to win a bunch of games this year but not enough to get into the playoffs.

I’m not sure why everyone is so high on the Rams this year. They have a rookie head coach in Scott Linehan and a new defensive coordinator in Jim Haslett. Sure Haslett could do much better this year concentrating on the defense than he did with the Saints as a head coach but can he turn around a team that was 30th in total defense last season? Not enough to make them contenders. On the offensive side of the ball, Stephen Jackson is a beast and Torry Holt is still a top 5 WR in the league but Isaac Bruce is over the hill and I don’t think anyone outside of STL can name the tight end on the Rams. The Rams are slightly better than last year but that only leaves them 8-8.

And in last place are the San Francisco 49ers. Mike Nolan is steadily getting rid of players who don’t buy into this system but it takes time to turn around a team with so little talent. Losing Julian Peterson really hurt them on defense and they didn’t make any significant improvements in free agency. Larry Allen you say? He’s only in his 13th year in the league and is turning 35 in November. The acquisition of Antonio Bryant only replaces the departure of Brandon LLoyd. Here’s a bold prediction: Alex Smith will throw a career high in TDs this season. And the Niners improve to 5-11.

NFC South
CAR 11-5
TB 9-7
ATL 8-8
NO 4-12

The NFC South looks like it’s going to be a very intriguing division. The Panthers are clearly the best of the bunch but the Bucs could improve on a playoff caliber team last year and the Falcons look to return to 2004 form behind Mike Vick. And of course, all eyes will be on the Saints with their new coach and new franchise player.

A lot of people are picking the Panthers to win the NFC this year and they certainly have the talent to do so. With the addition of Keyshawn Johnson, they have a short to medium threat to go along with Steve Smith’s deep threat. The big question is DeShaun Foster who has looked good in the preseason but this is a guy who has had season ending injuries in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Behind Foster on the depth chart is rookie DeAngelo Williams. While Williams holds the NCAA record for all purpose yardage, he is unproven. The Panthers defense remains one of the best in the league and that will be enough for a 11-5 record and a #3 seed.

By cutting Brian Griese, the Buccaneers have designated this as Chris Simm’s team. He played well enough in 11 games last year for Tampa Bay and for all intents and purposes is entering his second real year along with Cadillac Williams. The Bucs won the division last year and I guess that was enough for Jon Gruden because he didn’t make many moves in the offseason. Unfortunately, standing pat isn’t enough. Along with a division crown comes a divison winner’s schedule. This means a drop to a 9-7 record and missing out on the playoffs.

The Falcons will follow up a mediocre 8-8 2005 season with another 8-8 season in 2006. The addition of John Abraham will significantly improve the 22nd ranked defense from 2005 and the addition of Ashley Lelie will help stretch the field for the offense. But the question is whether Michael Vick can be patient enough to let those deep routes develop and accurate enough to complete them. He only completed 10 passes (out of 50) over 20 yards last year. Vick has a new quarterbacks coach again. Another change for a QB that has trouble grasping the offense after 5 years in the league? I don’t see why people expect the Falcons to do much damage this year.

Nobody honestly expect the Saints to make much noise in the division this year but it’ll be interesting to see how Reggie Bush plays against NFL defenses and whether he takes over the starting job by the middle of the season. Years of boneheaded moves have left the Saints thin on talent on both sides of the ball and the rebuilding process will take a few years if it finishes at all. In five years, we might be looking at Reggie Bush like we did Barry Sanders, a phenomenal back stuck with a bumbling franchise.

Playoff seeding:
1. Seattle
2. Chicago
3. Carolina
4. Philadelphia
5. NY Giants
6. Dallas Cowboys

That’s it for the NFC. Disagree? Post your comments below. Or send hate mail to [email protected].