Every year fans and experts choose their favorites to win the Super Bowl according to a wide range of variables. This postseason some will pick the hottest teams going into the playoffs (Redskins, Patriots), or pick the years most consistent teams (Colts, Seahawks). Others will pick teams that dominate one side of the ball (Bengals, Bears), or that have great balance (Broncos, Giants).
However, there are certain NFL playoff trends that spread over the course of several postseasons which can give strong indications of who will and who won’t win the Super Bowl.
When it’s said that defense wins championships, the data proves that to be correct. No team since the 1983 Los Angeles Raiders have won the Super Bowl after finishing the regular season ranked worse than eighth in points against. As a matter of fact, the Raiders are just an anomaly. Their three Super Bowl winning teams (1976, 1980, 1983) are the only teams in the 39 year history of the Super Bowl to have won the big game with a defense ranked outside of the top eight in points against.
That spells disappointment for the Washington Redskins (9th), New York Giants (14th), New England Patriots (17th), and Cincinnati Bengals (22nd). This process of elimination leaves only eight teams, instead of twelve, from which to choose this year’s Super Bowl winner.
With quarterbacks receiving an overwhelming amount of credit for a team’s victory in the Super Bowl, it should also be noted that in 3 of the last 5 years the Super Bowl champ’s offense has finished no better than 12th in points scored. The 2000 Ravens, 2002 Buccaneers, and 2003 Patriots had top ranked defenses and middle of the pack, at best, offenses. In other words, a team with a great defense is more likely to win the Super Bowl than a team with a great offense, according to a recent trend.
Another noteworthy trend is the infrequency with which both teams with home field advantage get to the Super Bowl. That last time the teams with the two best records both went to the Super Bowl was the 1993 rematch between the Dallas Cowboys and the Buffalo Bills. It is almost a lock that either the Colts or the Seahawks will fail in their quest to even reach the Super Bowl, despite having home field advantage this year.
Given these recent trends, and accounting for my own quirky feel for the game of football, my favorites for the Super Bowl are the Indianapolis Colts and the Chicago Bears. In points scored and points against the Colts rank 2nd in both offense and defense. They can win with defense, and they can certainly win with the offensive balance, and explosiveness, they possess.
The Bears may lack team balance, but they have the most dominating defense in the NFL. The defense plays consistently great, and no offense in the NFC will score many points against them. The Bears will shutdown the Seahawks in Seattle in the NFC Championship Game, before succumbing to Colts 23-10 in the Super Bowl.
Oh yeah, give me Redskins over the Bucs, the Giants over the Panthers, the Patriots over the Jaguars, and the Steelers over the Bengals in this weekend’s wild card games. The Redskins are too hot for the Bucs right now. The Giants are at home against an extremely inconsistent Panther team. The Patriots are too playoff tested to lose to next year’s dominant AFC team. And, the Bengals faded and lost their edge after winning the division title. They need a loss to show them that they can’t take success for granted, and that it won’t come easy. They remind me of that first Cowboy playoff team of the early 90’s. A loss will steel their resolve.
8 replies on “Who Will- and Who Won’t- Win The Super Bowl”
If the Giants win on Sunday they will being saying “Welcome ot Detroit City”.
Good great story ..very informatal
Da Bears? Very well researched and written article. My only concern is the Chicago Bears belief that Rex Grossman is a savior is severely flawed. He is untested in a playoff situation, and is more likely to bone up allowing Seattle to play in the Super Bowl. That is if he doesn’t mess up in the Divisional game.
Thank you, all Ryan, I don’t believe Grossman is the Bears savior, either. I truly believe that the bears can win with dominating defense alone. The 90 Giants did it with a running game and minimal passing Hostetler in place of an injured Phil Simms. The Ravens did it also, in a year where their back didn’t have a BIG year.
However, the offense is better under Grossman because he will put some pressure on the defense. He’ll get the ball downfield, and any mistakes that he makes will be minimized by that extraordinary defense. Also, good offensive play has a great deal to do with confidence, and the Bears players and coaches have confidence in Grossman. He gives the offense a little swagger.
I don’t know why, he hasn’t done anything yet. But, maybe he has those intangibles that can’t be seen outside of the huddle. I hope I’m right on the Bears, because they are the most interesting team in the NFC to me.
Amen Brother…go G-Men
Agreement I agree the Bears are definatly interesting, and it would be a real treat to see them in the big game again, but until they can win the big game…for example the game against Pittsburgh where they got trounced. Not to mention they come in kings of the division from hell a.k.a. the NFC North. When they can beat a Seattle, or New York, then I’ll take them seriously
that’s right GO GIANTS!
Who won big games? Ryan, it can be said that Seattle played in a worse division than the Bears. The 2nd best team in the NFC West had a 6-10 record, in the NFC North the record was 9-7.
As far as losing against quality teams, Seattle played 4 playoff teams this year, and lost to the Jaguars and Redskins. They beat the Giants and the Colts, but did they BEAT THE COLTS. No Marvin Harrison, Manning for 2 series, only 13 carries for Edge, several defensive starters rested.
The Giants got blew out down the stretch by a division opponent (Redskins), and there was still a lot at stake in that game. They did well against playoff teams (3-2), but they got blew out by the Chargers, and lost to the Vikings. Other than the meaningless (for the Bears) last game of the season, the Giants are the only +.500 team that the Vikings beat this year. And the Giants were at HOME.
There is only one guarantee in this year’s NFC playoff – the Bears defense will play extremely well. Other than Seattle, is there another team in the NFC that can boast of any kind of consistency?
By the way, the Bears were 2-3 against playoff teams. They lost to the Bengals, Steelers, and 9-7 in Orton’s first career game against the Redskins.