Breaking Down the AFC

by Trevor Freeman

If the NFL had a playoff system like the NCAA Tournament, where each team that won their division got an automatic bid and the rest of the tourney got filled out by the next best teams, AFC fans would rejoice.  This is because the AFC would probably fill just about every at-large bid.  You can make a very strong argument that seven of the NFL’s ten best team are in the AFC.  From the Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots to the “on the cusp” Houston Texans, the AFC is flat out loaded.  The AFC East and West look to be particularly bruising.  Since we began in the “Not So Wild” NFC West for our NFC preview we start back East for my AFC version.

Much like Trevor Freeman defending his sportscolumn.com championship belt for a third straight month with this column, New England will be trying to threepeat.  I don’t see it happening for the Patriots this year.  I think they finally take a step back to the pack.  Losing Tedy Bruschi on top of Ty Law, Romeo Crennel, and Charlie Weis is going to take a toll.  Bruschi was the heart, Law the swagger and Crennel and Weis the deputy chief engineers of that team.  The Jets will provide stiff competition to the Pats as the addition of Ty Law narrows the gap.  I didn’t like the Lavernous Coles for Santana Moss trade, because Moss was a playmaker on special teams as well as on the offense.  Bringing in “The Nuge” from The……….Ohio State University is a huge upgrade in the kicking game.  The only thing that could submarine this season for the Jets is if Curtis Martin were to get injured.  If Buffalo had kept Drew Bledsoe I may have given them 10-6 because Willis MacGahee is starting for a full year, but I think J.P. Losman’s inexperience costs them at some point.  Miami will be improved with Nick Saban arriving from Baton Rouge.  The problem is that they fall victim to what I like to call the “Rusty Hilger Rule”.  This rule states that when Rusty Hilger is your quarterback that means you better start scouring the college campuses of America for a new one, because Rusty isn’t leading you to the playoffs.  Right now, Nick Saban is decided between Gus Frerotte, Sage Rosenfels, and A.J. Feeley.  All great names if you are casting Big Brother 7.  Not so good if you have to start one of them in real NFL games.  

If I were going to pick a team to come out of the AFC right now, I would go with Baltimore.  That defense is the best in football.  Adding Samari Rolle and rookie Dan Cody (from Oklahoma) in the offseason cemented it.  However, the reason why the Ravens are my choice to win the AFC is because of what they brought in on offense.  Derrick Mason has quietly been one of the most productive receivers in football and I believe he will be joined on the other side by rookie and Sooner product Mark Clayton by the third game of the season.  Both of these guys are gamers and will make Kyle Boller look better instantly.  I think Pittsburgh takes a step back this year, as the injury to Duce Staley will hurt more than you think.  Cincinnati should improve as Carson Palmer is poised to have a breakout year.  You have to feel bad for Marvin Lewis and the Bengals as they may not make the playoffs in the AFC, but would probably be the fourth best team in the NFC.  Cleveland is going to suck this year.  Look for Matt Leinart’s agent to be telling the Browns come February, “Matt’s not really interested in coming to Cleveland, it would probably be better for both sides if you went another direction.”  He’s got way too many endorsement deals and cover shots on Us Weekly holding hands with the soon to be divorced Jessica Simpson in his future to be stuck in a place like Cleveland.

Do you hear that?  It’s the window of opportunity for both Peyton Manning and Tony Dungy beginning to close.  In this day and age with the salary cap it is tough to stay competitive as long as Indy has.  It’s even tougher when you have one guy taking up a large chunk of your cap space.  Jacksonville is going to get off to a slow start with Fred Taylor missing time.  The sleeper is Tennessee.  Steve McNair is a big-game quarterback and they just added Travis Henry.  If that defense can step up, the Titans could steal this division.  BTW, keep your eye on Travis LaBoy.  He was the Titans second round pick out of Hawaii.  LaBoy will see some time for them.  And I’m not just saying that because he went to the finest high school in the state of California and quite possibly the United States of America in Marin Catholic.  Houston is going to be much-improved as well.  The Texans are very close to pushing their way over the playoff hump.  They are a very young team who are still coming together.

The addition of Randy Moss to the Oakland Raiders ranks #6 All-Time in terms of matches made in Heaven.  Adding Moss and LaMont Jordan to the Raiders catapults Oakland to the top of the division.  In my opinion the Chargers screwed up the NFL Draft as royally as you can do it.  How do the Chargers not package their first rounders for a shot at the “BMW” (Big Mike Williams)?  All they were is a legit #1 receiver away from being my pick to win the AFC.  Instead, I think they fall back to the pack slightly as Drew Brees is going to come back to Earth this season.  Kansas City will be improved as the addition of Patrick Surtain makes that defense tougher.  Denver is on the way downhill.  Their record may be worse than what I predicted.  As an aside, I know the first complaint of this article will be that I predicted too many teams with winning records.  Please note that I did indeed compensate for this in my NFC preview.  

In conclusion I have Baltimore beating the New York Jets in the AFC Title Game.  The Ravens will meet Carolina Panthers in this year’s Super Bowl.  I just think the coaching staff with Brian Billick, Jim Fassel, and Rick Neuheisel will get the Raven offense clicking this year and that the defense will be as stout as ever.

If you have any questions or comments feel free to e-mail me at [email protected].