The five year rebuilding program used to be the norm in the NFL, but not anymore. Any coach trying to sell the fans on a lengthy rebuilding process will be gone quicker than it takes The Donald to quip “You’re fired!” NFL teams in the new millennium can watch the playoffs from home one year and find themselves in the Super Bowl the next season. Trying to predict that Cinderella team is where it gets tricky. I took a stab at what teams could surprise in 2004, but I’m sure everybody has their own favorites.The late, great NFL commissioner Pete Rozelle wanted every team in his league able to compete at a high level every Sunday. He believed fierce competition league wide would raise the NFL to a popularity the sports world had never seen before. Every team, besides Pete’s archenemy Al Davis’ Raiders that is, should have a shot at the Super Bowl. Wish granted Mr. Rozelle.
Which team can you legitimately tell me has no Super Bowl chance? Ok I’ll give you Da Bears and those Bolt heads down in San Diego. Who else do you got? I won’t even accept the Arizona Cardinals anymore, not with proven playoff coach Denny Green running the show. Even Matt Millen is getting praised for his off-season moves that have people talking about the Detroit Lions. The Detroit Tigers are winning and Millen is getting kudos in the same summer. Next thing you know Eminem will be topping the Christian rock charts.
Now I’m not saying I’ll be placing my life savings on the Lions in Vegas or anything, but did anyone expect Carolina to make the big dance last year? I’d like to see what the odds were at Caesar’s Palace for St. Louis in 1999 or New England in 2001. It just validates the growing trend in the NFL over the last decade. Teams don’t necessarily have to enjoy playoff success the year before to make a Super Bowl run. If you look at the last five years alone, only three out of ten Super Bowl competitors made the playoffs in the season prior.
It would appear, based on those odds, that one team sitting at home in January of 2003 might be lacing up the cleats for a particular February game in Jacksonville. Not every team has a legit shot, but there a few solid contenders. Below are my top two teams, one from each conference, which could make a Super run this fall after failing to make the playoffs last year. This following knowledge is based on watching two or three NFL games each Sunday over the past twenty-five years, while losing roughly eighty percent of all games I bet on. Impressive, huh?
Minnesota Vikings – Sure the Vikings only missed the playoffs by a Nathan Poole toe, but they still qualify. No one can complain that the Vikings don’t have a Super Bowl caliber offense and it all starts up front with the big boys. The Vikings o-line is one of the leagues best and most massive. Studs like center Matt Birk and left tackle Bryant McKinnie were part of the purple wall that helped Minnesota lead the league in total offense.
If you want running backs, the Vikes have three quality dudes to tote the rock. The speedster Michael Bennett should be the starter with Onterrio Smith and Moe Williams helping to spell him. Bennett is the speedster who only took a back seat last year because of injury. Look for him to breakout this year. Smith showed tremendous promise as a rookie and Williams is the steady veteran who can do a little bit of everything. Minnesota might have the deepest backfield in the NFL with these three.
The man every defensive coordinator fears, Randy Moss, will be back as the scariest wide receiver in the league. Moss is a lock for over 1,200 yards, around fifteen TD grabs and a few no effort plays a season. I guess we can overlook a few sleepwalking plays since Randy is one of the best. However if I’m a DB lining opposite Moss, I take his head off the next time I catch him sleeping. The Vikings also improved their receiving corp. with the addition of Marcus Robinson. He could be the best threat the Vikings have had opposite Moss since Cris Carter retired.
Leading the charge is trigger man Daunte Culpepper. This man has put up some amazing numbers heading into his fifth years as the Vikes starter and can do it all. He runs like a fullback and those deep moon balls he tosses are a thing of beauty. All Daunte needs to do is produce in the playoffs and he will be make that leap among the leagues elite QB’s. I think this is the year Culpepper silences all of his critics.
The defense is what has kept Minnesota out of the playoffs the past few years. However a few key additions could keep this defensive turnstile locked down. The addition of free agent cornerback Antoine Winfield gives the secondary the lock down corner they have needed for years. First round draft pick Kenechi Udeze could be a steal. Udeze was a pass rushing fool at USC and further helps a defensive looking to get quicker on the edges. New D coordinator Ted Cottrell has built solid defenses with the Bills and Jets and I believe his new schemes will help the pass rush. He uses his defensive tackles to get inside penetration and this meshes well with Kevin Williams and Chris Hovan’s strengths.
The only thing that gives me reservation about the Vikings is head coach Mike Tice. Sure Tice seems like a solid guy, but I get this feeling he is not the best game day coach in the league. It seems his emotions get the better of him sometimes and they affect his decision making. He could still prove me wrong, but I’d feel much better if Mike Holmgren or Bill Parcells was on the sidelines. Maybe it’s just the sweater vests Tice sports on game day that bother me.
The Vikings just have that look of team that is only a few tweaks away from making the jump to the playoffs. It seems the masterminds behind the lines in Las Vegas seem to agree. They have Minnesota at 6/1 odds to win the big game come next February. Those are some damn good odds for a team not invited to the dance last year. I’ve suffered enough at the hands of those Vegas lines to realize the men in the shadows know what they are doing.
New York Jets – Millions of fans would love to see this scenario. The Big Apple would be overwhelmed with constant hype about their beloved Jets, while the rest of the country gets sick hearing more about egocentric New York. Believe me I don’t wish for this, but they have some players and a head coach who they lay it on the line for.
The Jets head coach Herman Edwards hasn’t always had the talent or luck, but he has his team prepared every Sunday for battle. To me he is everything his mentor Tony Dungy is, with an added dose of intensity. I thought Edwards had his team ready for a true title run at the beginning of 2003, but quarterback Chad Pennington suffered a wrist injury that knocked him out the first half of the season. There went New York’s title dreams. Even though the race was lost early last year, the Jets battled to the finish. Edwards was the main reason and he will be on the sideline again pushing his players to the limit.
Another reason for optimism is a full year with Chad Pennington behind center. His debut in 2002 was Brady-esque as he came off the bench early in the season to take New York on a magical run to the divisional playoffs. They were taken apart by the eventual AFC Champion Oakland Raiders, I mention Raider glory whenever possible, but Pennington proved his mettle on the field. His injury was a slight setback last year, but he came back in mid-season and played well even though the playoffs were a pipedream. More snaps of any kind just give the kid more experience to build on. I expect Pennington to come back with a Pro Bowl type season.
Curtis Martin might be getting older, but those legs just keep on chugging away. On a team with a battered passing game, Martin still put up thirteen hundred yards and four yards a carry. Not bad for a guy the New York press keeps putting out to pasture. Lamont Jordon is the backup and has produced every time he has been called on. The running game should be in good shape with these two.
The Jets added free agent receiver Justin McCareins who should start opposite Santana Moss to give the team two legitimate threats on the outside. Wayne Chrebet should be an ideal third down slot guy. The offensive line has long been a strength for the Jets and that continues this year with perennial Pro Bowl center Kevin Mawae leading the way. The offense should be among the AFC’s best.
The AFC East is all about defense with the champion Patriots leading the show. The Jets should be up to the task this year with the extra speed they have added. Rookie linebacker Jonathan Vilma should be an instant hit as he brings his U of Miami swagger to the NFL. Eric Barton, free agent from Oakland, also improves the Jets speed and playmaking. With returning starter Sam Cowart, New York might be able to challenge the Pats in linebacking prowess.
What could really put New York into the NFL’s second season is the defensive line. John Abraham and Shaun Ellis are both young and top notch defensive ends who should keep opposing quarterbacks wary. Either one, or both, could be headed to Hawaii in February. The inside is manned by run stuffing Jason Ferguson and second year player Dewayne Robertson. If Robertson can make good on all those Warren Sapp comparisons, this line could weak havoc on the AFC.
Yes the New York Jets are my pick from the AFC to surprise in 2004. Las Vegas has them at 20/1, so the odds aren’t the best. However, the payoff would be very nice if you have the faith. If my prediction rings true, be prepared for all the hoopla from the New York area. I can hear the knuckleheads chanting already, J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets!
If an also ran from 2003 makes good in 2004, then I predict it will be one of these two. I tried my hardest to make a case for my Oakland Raiders, but I’m still gagging from the taste of last season. Miami was an intriguing choice until I heard Ricky Williams decided to run away from the Dolphins and not for them. I also want to believe in the greatness that is Michael Vick, but I think the Falcons are probably a year or two away. I’ll stick with the Vikings and Jets to make the jump, but I’m sure I’ll be paying Mr. Vegas in the end. It always seems to end up that way for me.