By Gabe Kahn
Every year, about three weeks or so before the NBA draft, certain
players, initially thought to
be high first round picks, suddenly find their stock falling further
than Mike Tyson’s. At the
same time, some eligible players rise to prominence and become the
darlings of the dance,
and we begin to hear words like upside, potential, and athletic,
followed by whispers of
promises.
This phenomenon is a yearly occurrence and is happening as we speak.
Once surefire early
first round picks such as Monta Ellis, Jarret Jack and Chris Taft have
to hope they’ll be
selected in the first round. Channing Frye, Roko Ukic and Yaroslav
Karolev, on the other
hand, are all now being talked about as good shots for the lottery.
Why does this happen? For one thing, many team officials will give high
praise to players their
club has no intention of drafting in an attempt to fool teams with
higher picks into allowing a
desired player to slide down in the draft. Say what you want about this
process, but I think we
can all agree that a smokescreen like this would fool Isiah Thomas just
about every time, and
as long as he’s in charge of the Knicks, many teams will be picking
after New York.
Probably the leading reason for the rapid fluctuations of draft eligible
players that occurs in
early June is the trend known as workouts. When players work out for
different teams, they
perform in numerous drills that test the players’ strength, ability to
shoot, speed, quickness and
their vertical jump, to name a few. Many general managers make their
decisions on a player
after witnessing these workouts, having become infatuated with a
prospects’ overall athletic
ability, even if they had not seen those abilities during said players’
college or high school
career. Truth is, so often these excellent overall athletes don’t
translate into good basketball
players. And almost as often, players that have proven they have skills
will have skills even if
they don’t have all the raw talent some of the others possess.
Need proof?
Let’s start out with a look at last year’s draft. Now, while it is way
too early to judge many of
these players, you can get a good idea of how this process works when
you see which players
rose and fell before the draft. Remember, by the way, that when I say a
player rose or fell, I’m
not talking about where he was drafted, but rather his stock at the
start of draft season until
right before the draft. Where they are actually taken isn’t as
essential, especially because of
the aforementioned GM smokescreen.
Here goes:
| 2004 NBA Draft | |
| Risers | Sliders |
| Rafael Aruajo | Josh Smith |
| Luke Jackson | Jameer Nelson |
| Robert Swift | Delonte West |
| Tony Allen | |
| David Harrison | |
| Peter John Ramos | |
As we said before, it’s still too early to judge whether or not Araujo,
Jackson or Swift are
busts, but they certainly were far from stellar in their inaugural
seasons. It is interesting to note,
though, that while Ramos was underwhelming, the rest all look like they
will have long careers
in the NBA and Smith might have a legitimate shot at superstardom.
| 2003 NBA Draft | |
| Risers | Sliders |
| Marcus Banks | T.J. Ford |
| Troy Bell | Luke Ridnour |
| Leandrinho Barbosa | |
| Josh Howard | |
Although the list of risers isn’t particularly large, Banks, fast as he
is, has yet to show that he
can use his speed effectively at the point guard position, and Bell is
already out of the league.
Close to the draft, Ford was tabbed too short and Ridnour too slow, yet
each of them
displayed an innate ability to lead a professional club in their first
season. Howard is
potentially the biggest surprise of that draft after being the last
player taken in the first
round,and Barbosa proved a capable backup for the team with the NBA’s
best record.
| 2002 NBA Draft | |
| Risers | Sliders |
| Juan Dixon | Melvin Ely |
| Nickoloz Tskitishvilli | Amare Stoudamire |
| Carlos Boozer | |
Again, not an extensive list of either, but it’s hard not to notice that
2002’s hottest riser, Skita,
was chosen ahead of slight dropper Stoudamire. That Boozer slipped all
the way to the
second round is almost criminal. But for the ultimate example of all
this, just wait until you
check out 2001:
| 2001 NBA Draft | |
| Risers | Sliders |
| Kwame Brown | Richard Jefferson |
| Eddie Griffin | Troy Murphy |
| DeSagana Diop | Zach Randolph |
| Rodney White | Brendan Haywood |
| Kedrick Brown | Joseph Forte |
| Jamaael Tinsley | |
| Tony Parker | |
| Omar Cook | |
| Loren Woods | |
This list just staggers the mind. All five of the risers, led by Kwame
Brown who was the first
overall selection, were off the board by the time Jefferson was taken at
13. Also like Kwame
Brown, all five were certifiable disasters. The Wizards will probably
let Kwame walk this
summer and Griffin was back in the league for the first time in a year
while Kedrick Brown ate
himself out of it. No one has any idea what’s up with Diop or White.
On the other side, six of the nine sliders are better than average
players and at least four are
at an All Star level. Jefferson and Randolph received close to maximum
salary extensions and
the extensions given to Parker, Murphy, Tinsley and Haywood were quite
healthy as well.
While the NBA experiences of Forte and Cook were pretty horrific and
Woods never really
made it, either, a few of the rest are studs and all of them can play.
The point of all this is, when draft time comes around, don’t get caught
up in all the hype. How
much a player can bench or how high he can jump is not nearly as
important as whether or not
he can play basketball. Unless the rules committee decides to institute
some sort of triathlon,
that’s still what they do in the NBA.