2008 NBA Playoff Preview
The knockdown, drag out fight that has been the NBA regular season has finally come to a close and all the participants, battered and disheveled, are ready to scrape their way to the summit to claim the Larry O’Brien trophy.
Okay, that sums up the Western conference but what about the East?
(That was too easy…)
But seriously, this NBA season has been one of the best that I been able to watch. And because of my love for football, I usually dismiss the round ball action until after New Year’s, but this season slapped you in the face all year long.
Mega-blockbuster, franchise changing trades, unrealistic turnarounds, the tightest MVP race in history, and some of the coolest-turned-annoying promotional commercials I’ve ever seen (I hear that “Where amazing happens” piano music in my sleep).
While no one in their most insane and eccentric state of mind could have predicted Boston going all “We’re the real Celtics again” on the league, Mitch Kupchak hi-jacking Pau from the Grizz, CP3 looking like the Big O reincarnate, Shaq turning Phoenix, Arizona into the latest site for his 24-hour fitness club chain, or Kobe playing nice; the upcoming playoffs will be even more unpredictable.
So with all of the questions swirling around this weekend’s playoff kickoff, I picked out 15 of the most pressing ones and answered them.1) How did the Atlanta Hawks make the playoffs?
They played pretty good basketball this season. Though they finished below .500 for the 10th straight year (37 – 45), they are young team that achieved something no one thought they could.
Also keep in mind that this team pulled the trigger on a deal that completely changed the look of their squad, shipping multiple warm bodies to bring in Mike Bibby. A trade which I think will pay nice dividends when they play a full season together.
The performances of Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, along with the emergence Marvin Williams and rookie Al Horford made the Hawks a near respectable ball club.
Johnson’s 21.7 points a game was the 14th highest in the league and earned him the Hawks’ lone all-star honoree. And they got near all-star numbers from J-Smith, who averaged career highs in points (17.2), rebounds (8.4), and blocks (2.8).
Add in the explosive scoring at point that Bibby brings and a rookie of the year worthy season from Al Horford and the Hawks are a very capable team.
Now, with all that said, do they have a chance at winning the series against the Celtics? No. Do they have a chance at winning a game in that series? Probably not.
Maybe next season, maybe…
2) Does Philly have a real shot against the Pistons in round 1?
Philly has a better shot than most people think; at least this writer thinks so.
The 76ers split the season series with the Pistons, and in their two losses they only lost by a combined 13 points. Though they don’t spend much time in the prime time spotlight, they are a very talented team.
Philly’s new AI, Andre Iguodala, had an all-star type season averaging 20 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game. Plus I think Thaddeus Young is going to be an all-star within 3 years.
Even Sam Dam and Andre Miller are playing good basketball this season. Dalembert is averaging a double-double on the year and does a great job of controlling the paint. And Miller, while pudgy, is a great floor general.
In order for Mo Cheeks’ squad to beat Detroit they are going to have to hope that the Pistons’ plane crashes and they never make it to the arena. With all that Philly has going for it, they aren’t going to be pulling off any upsets.
They may win two games. Definitely at least one, and they’ll probably play the Pistons close in most of the games, but they are not winning.
3) Is Toronto a real playoff team?
Yes they are, more so than they were last year at least.
They were one of the 13 teams to score 100+ points a game this year. They have an all-star on their roster who is a solid 20 and 10 guy and they have an excellent coach in Sam Mitchell.
The thing that has been my knock on the Raptors has been their lack of consistency beyond Bosh. You know what you’re going to get out of Mr. Raptor himself (Bosh looks like he’s straight out of Jurassic Park), but after that, what’s left?
Andrea Bargnani? Jamario Moon? T.J. Ford? Jose Calderon?
Bargnani had three scoreless games during the last month and a half of the season. His play has been too up and down for him to be counted on, especially in the playoffs. Moon is very athletic and is very active around the basket, but I still question his ability to create his own shot.
Ford and Calderon are very good guards, but they don’t strike fear in to any other backcourt. And I think Candace Parker could probably beat her brother Anthony (and her fiancé Shelden Williams too for that matter) in a one on one.
I think this team is still one player away from being a top three seed in the East.
So yes the Raptors are a real playoff team, but they are not a real playoff contender.
Magic in 5.
4) Can Houston finally break through and get out of the first round?
The short answer is no.
With all the Rockets accomplished this season, they just can’t seem to get a favorable draw when playoff time rolls around.
Think about it this way, if Houston couldn’t beat the Jazz with Yao, how do you expect them to beat them without Yao?
Even though the Rockets have been overachieving in Yao’s absence, they cannot sustain that over a seven game series against one team. After a while, the emotions are taken out of it and it comes down to which team can get the best individual performances from its players.
And man for man, Utah is better than Houston without Yao.
I foresee T-Mac sitting in front of the media looking down, talking in a low monotone voice, talking about how great a team Utah is and how he is announcing his retirement from NBA playoff basketball…
Jazz in 6.
5) Who is the Western Conference dark horse team?
The Dallas Mavericks
Even though they have the mentally weakest superstar I’ve ever seen, this team is in an excellent position to make a deep run into the postseason.
Dirk has already come out and said that he didn’t want to play the Lakers (I would feel that way too if Mr. 81 had scorched us for 50+ twice this season). So they came out and blitzkrieg New Orleans on the last night of the season to face those same Hornets in round one.
As mentally weak as Dirk is, he is equally deadly when it comes to scoring the basketball. New Orleans doesn’t really have anyone to guard Dirk. You say David West can take on the task, but then he is using a lot of his energy on the defensive end, taking away from his offense.
And contrary to popular belief, Jason Kidd can score the basketball. He chooses not to score the ball. He is what a true point guard is supposed to be, a pass first floor general who looks to make his teammates better. CP3 is definitely the future of the league as far as point guard supremacy, but J-Kidd is going to school him in this series and shut up the critics how say he’s over the hill.
Need more proof? Check out the box score from Wednesday’s game.
Dallas is battled tested, though they haven’t won any of those battles, they have them on their résumé nonetheless.
Advantage Mavs, Dallas in 7.
6) Who is the Eastern Conference dark horse team?
The Orlando Magic
Okay hear me out on this one. The reason I say the Magic are a team that could surprise a lot of people is not the reason many of you think.
Dwight Howard? No.
Hedo? No, he don’t.
It’s Coach Stan Van Gundy.
While that soaks in, let throw this at you…
Stan Van has a 164 – 103 coaching record up to date. Every time he’s been at the helm of a franchise, he’s had an above .500 record (he even was 11 – 10 before “Rat” Riley came in a stole his glory). He led a Heat team to within a Damon Jones turnover of the NBA Finals back in 2005.
He took over a Magic team this year knowing he was their second choice and turned them into a 52 win team. He scolded and criticized his best player openly, to many people’s surprise, and not only kept his job but got increased output from the player. If that’s not a true coach, I don’t know what is.
Plus he’s a dead ringer for Ron Jeremy.
They will beat the Raptors and will face off with the Pistons, a team they split with during the regular season, in round two.
7) Will the Hornets’ youth be a liability or an asset?
Most definitely a liability.
Even though they have players who have playoff experience and their coach has taken teams to the NBA finals twice, the Hornets have inexperience at the most important spot.
Point guard. Chris Paul has never sniffed NBA playoff intensity basketball before. Now there have been instances where players (LeBron & Magic) have just killed it in their playoff debut. But Magic and LeBron are both killer instinct type players, I don’t see that same swagger in CP3.
Plus it doesn’t help that he has to be deflowered by playing grizzled vet J-Kidd and the Mavs. I’m not saying that he is going to completely shrink and not do anything for his team, but I am saying that the big stage is a fickle host, and one thing the playoffs don’t give is adjustment time.
8) Agent Zero or Bron-Bron?
Depends on the situation.
Better blog writer? Agent Zero
Better commercials? Bron-Bron
More eloquent speaker? Toss up
But in the question who is going to win the 3rd installment of the Cavs – Wiz series? I’d have to go with Senor Hibachi.
Now before you confirm my insanity, keep reading.
I’ve competed in sports before, on a decent level and I can tell you from experience that it is very hard to beat a team multiple times. Especially when there is an attitude of revenge involved.
Though the Cleveland LeBrons have beaten the Wizards in the first round of the playoffs in the past years, I think this is Washington’s time.
Agent Zero is nice and rested, Caron Butler’s legs are fairly fresh, and Antwan Jamison carried them this far mostly by himself for majority of the season. Not to mention I don’t like the look of this Cavs team since they made that deadline trade. I thought Wally would be a much bigger factor than what he has and if you’re counting on Joe Smith and Ben Wallace for major production, you’re in a world of trouble.
Wizards in 7.
9) Why does everyone look past Utah?
The Jazz are overlooked mostly because of the physical appearance of their team.
Think about it, Deron Williams is a top five point guard, but doesn’t he look like a guy whose pre-game meal consists of a twinkie or three?
AK 47 looks like a shaved bird.
Mehmet Okur looks like your college roommate who’s every sentence either started with “bro…” or “dude…” That guy always looks clueless.
Jerry Sloan is your classic cantankerous, ornery old guy.
And Carlos Boozer, I don’t know what’s up with that guy…
But as odd as they may look, they can play some basketball. And any team that overlooks the Jazz are looking to be hitting the links early.
Keep in mind this team made it to the Western conference finals last year.
10) What’s the best opening round series?
The Suns – Spurs series, easily.
Come on, Shaq vs. Duncan
Nash vs. Tony Longoria-Parker
D’antoni vs. G-Pop
The match ups in this one are priceless.
This one has underlying storylines too. The Suns feel they were one Robert Horry body check away from making it to the finals last year, while the Spurs think they have the blueprint to stopping Steve Nash.
People said that the Suns were too soft of team the way they were constructed to ever be a legitimate title contender, so what do they go out and do? They bring in a 325 pound scarecrow.
Shaq, or the Big Cactus as he is answering to now, has always found ways to get the best of Duncan during the playoffs. And the Spurs have never been able to piece together a back to back title run, while Shaq has a three-peat under his belt.
San Antonio is limping into this series, Horry is still out, Brent Barry hasn’t played since he resigned, and Ginobili’s groin pull can flare up instantly with his style of play.
But there are two x-factors in this series, Amare Stoudemire and Michael Finley. Stoudemire has always given the Spurs fits. Asking Fabricio Oberto to guard Amare is like asking a thong not to disappear up a 400 pound woman’s butt. He will average over 25 points per game in this series.
Michael Finley on the other hand can play a big factor in this series from this perspective. No one pays him any true attention anymore. Everyone focuses on Ginobili and Parker and think Finley is just another two-bit role player. Remember people, this is a guy who when he came out of Wisconsin was regarded as a “next MJ” type player.
He can still shoot it, and I’m sure if he really got the juices flowing he could still rise up over some people.
I ultimately think home court advantage will be the biggest factor so,
Spurs in 7.
11) Can Boston run the table and sweep everybody?
They can, but they won’t.
The Celts are great, but they aren’t that great. Plus they have potential match ups with the Pistons or Magic, then the West champ.
Won’t happen.
12) Which team has the most to prove?
That would be the Detroit Pistons.
It’s been five years since they beat the dynastic Lakers for their title, and they haven’t been able to reclaim that glory ever since.
People are saying their window is closing. And it is, but it isn’t closed yet. The Pistons have been a model franchise for since the turn of the century. They strengthened their bench through the draft (Stuckey and Afflalo) and brought in some valuable veteran parts through free agency (Ratliff & Juan Dixon).
Detroit will definitely be playing with a big chip on their shoulder, especially being ousted by the one man wrecking crew named LeBron James (and after reading this column).
13) Who will come out of the East?
The Boston Celtics
The Big Ticket, Ray “Jesus Shuttlesworth” Allen, and Paul Pierce are the modern version of Larry Legend, Kevin McHale, and Robert “Chief” Parrish.
But even with those three future hall of famers leading the way, some major kudos need to go to the band of misfits who at the start of the season we all thought would drag the big 3 down.
Rajon Rondo, Tony Allen, Leon Powe, Glen Davis, Eddie House, James Posey, and the late additions of Sam I Am and P.J. Brown.
Rondo’s play this season was definitely worth a “Most Improved Player” consideration. He went from a backup point guard stuck in obscurity to the starting guard for the league’s best team. Some turnaround.
And after almost losing his job last season, Doc Rivers is finally getting a chance to sit in the winner’s circle and laugh at all of the people who were calling for his job last summer. I am a firm believer in the theory that it takes a very skilled coach to coach the most talented players. Kudos Doc.
Boston won’t be challenged until they reach the Eastern conference finals. They will breeze through Atlanta and take Washington out of their misery very quickly.
I anticipate them facing the Pistons, for an epic battle to go to the finals. It will be a battle of attrition, but the Celts will prevail on a Kevin Garnett 17-foot turnaround jumper to win game six.
14) Who will come out of the West?
The Los Angeles Lakers
I don’t think this season’s drama in LA could have been scripted any better if Steven Spielberg had gotten a hold of it.
To go from Kobe’s on again off again trade demands, to a 27 – 13 start, then a season ending injury to your young emerging center, to stealing/rescuing one of the league’s best international players, to suffering through more injuries, and then ending up winning the top seed in the West.
That’s great drama. You can’t write that kind of stuff.
Kobe is the most valuable player in the NBA, he’s actually been that since Shaq was shipped out of Orange County. But now he is going to have the hardware to go along with it.
Clinching the top seed in the West was paramount. It takes the Lakers out of that scrum with the Spurs, Suns, and Mavs, and it guarantees home court.
The Lakers will take the Nuggets out in five games, then they will show people that the Jazz are beatable at home, before the face off against the Spurs to go to the Finals.
Who will be the Laker with most to prove this postseason? Pau Gasol. I see Pau going postal this postseason and averaging 22 points and 12 rebounds all the way through.
15) Who wins it all?
How should I know?…