College Football Picks: Week 1

Your ultimate betting guide to the first week of college football.

5* picks = lock
3* picks = I’m damn sure

Everything in between is obviously somewhere in between lock and damn sure.

Enjoy!!!

And good luck!!!Against the Spread (ATS)

Thursday, September 1st
Vanderbilt @ Wake Forest (-8.5, BetCom)

First of all, Wake Forest is #25 in my power rankings and #27 in my Preseason 119. They return 16 starters, including 1st-team All-ACC HB Chris Barclay. Ben Mauk and Cory Randolph are both able QBs. Do not be surprised if Grobe changes his QBs numerous times this year, let alone in this game. The Wake defense is solid.

Vandi only returns 5 starters on defense, second least in the SEC. Six times the defense surrendered 26+ points, third most in the SEC. The offense returns 6 starters. The offense was spotty at best last year. Cutler is a solid QB, but he is nothing special.

Grobe is a very good coach, putting together a .500 mark with Ohio and taking Wake to a 22-25 record in his first four seasons. Bobby Johnson has done worse than Woody Woodenheifer since coming to Vandi.

Projected score: Wake Forest 41-13
Pick: Wake Forest 4*

Friday, September 2
Arizona @ Utah (-7, any online book)

Arizona cracked 20 points 3 times last year, one of which was against mediocre 1-AA Northern Arizona, a game they sadly could have lost. And only 5 starters return from that team. The defense is healthier, returning 8 starters. But the team surrendered 20 points against every conference foe except lowly Washington.

Utah ran the table last year, becoming the first non-BCS school to get an invite to a BCS bowl. QB Alex Smith became the #1 pick in the draft. Utah went to the desert last year and defeated Arizona by 17. At home, Utah won its final 5 games by at least 30 points and all home games by multiple scores. There is no reason to believe Arizona can make up 10 points going to Utah.

Whittingham should be able to make the transition from DC to HC. Mike Stoops will win with Arizona and has some great young kids, but he just lacks the team to win there now.

Projected score: Utah 31-10
Pick: Utah 3*

Saturday, September 3
Colorado State @ Colorado (-7, all books but Matchbook)

Colorado returns 9 starters on defense and 7 on offense. The defense gave up 20 points 10 times, including in each of the final 7 games. It will be better, but not that much. Klatt was terrible last year at QB, single-handedly throwing away the game against TAMU and nearly costing the showdown last year against CSU.

CSU only lost by 3 last year to CU with a young, inexperienced team, playing its first game on the road in hostile territory. 10 starters return on offense and 8 on defense. The team struggled last year, but still easily could 6 games and gone bowling. With much more experience, this team can easily match, if not surpass, the three-point defeat from last year.

Projected score: CSU 24-20
Pick: CSU 3*

Saturday, September 3
Texas A&M @ Clemson (+3, BetUS)

Clemson was a mediocre 6-5 team last year, catching a miracle pass against Wake and then stunning Maryland, NC State, and Miami in consecutive games. The team could have easily been 2-9 and looking for a new coach. A&M smocked the Tigers 27-6 at Kyle Field. The defense, which was dominant the second half of last season, returns only 5 starters. The offense is not strong enough to carry this team.

9 starters, including the consistent Reggie McNeal, return to lead the Aggies offense. The offense scored 27 points nine consecutive games at one point last season, hitting 34 five times. The defense was brutal and returns 7 starters. This offense will steamroll Clemson and the defense will hold up its end of the bargain.

Tommy Bowden is very likely entering his final season with Clemson and they would be right to fire him. Although he has screwed up in the locker room in the past, Franchione is a solid coach and has a good staff behind him.

Projected score: Texas A&M 31-14
Pick: Texas A&M 3.5*
Bonus Pick: Under 53.5 3*

Sunday, September 4
Virginia Tech @ North Carolina (+3, Intertops)

Va Tech is the second best team in the nation. 8 starters and Marcus Vick return on offense. Both HBs are able. The defense is sound with 6 starters returning, but only one in the secondary. But Va Tech always replenishes on defense, and this year is no exception.

Had UNC not played the perfect game the night before Halloween, John Bunting would be elsewhere. Only 6 starters return on offense from an overachieving 6-6 team. The Tarheels have lost their entire backfield. The defense, which surrendered 24 points ten times and 30 points six times returns 7 starters, only one of which is on the line. Va Tech will run over the defense and this offense won’t gain anything on the Va Tech defense.

Beamer is a legend, and his staff is loyal. Bunting coached one miracle game last year that saved his job.

Projected score: Virginia Tech 51-10
Pick: VT 5* Pick of the week

Monday, September 5
Mississippi @ Memphis (-1.5, Matchbook)

Ole Miss went 4-7 last year and this time returns only 4 starters on offense and 6 on defense. They have a new coaching staff, QB, and interior offensive line. The defense was pitiful last year and the offense was mediocre at best. Memphis came to town last year and won 20-13.

Memphis may only return 4 starters on offense, but one those is DeAngelo Williams, one of the best HBs in the nation. The defense, which was inconsistent at best, terrible at worst, returns 7 starters. But exactly what Ole Miss offense is it trying to stop?

Tommy West is a very good coach with a great staff behind him. Ed Orgeron was a great coordinator, but he is coaching his first game as a head coach.

Projected score: Memphis 31-17
Pick: Memphis 3*

Over/Under

Saturday, September 3
Ohio @ Northwestern (48, numerous books)

Ohio returns 6 starters from a pitiful defense. I don’t know what to expect from the offense, but Northwestern has no defense.

Northwestern returns 5 guys on offense, but that includes QB Basanez. Regardless of personnel, NU always scores. Ohio won’t stop them and Northwestern will put up at least 35 points itself. Tack on Ohio’s output, and you have yourself a nice over bet.

Projected score: Northwestern 44-14
Pick: Over 3*

Saturday, September 3
Northern Illinois @ Michigan (53.5, Matchbook)

Michigan has a very mediocre defense and a great offense, led by the second best halfback in the nation and a darn good QB.

Supposedly, NIU has a defense. I’ve yet to see if this rumor is true. 9 times in the final 10 games the team scored 30 points. The offense suffered heavy losses (including QB), but Novak will always have this team offensively sound.

Projected score: Michigan 48-20
Pick: Over 4.5*

Saturday, September 3
Florida Atlantic @ Kansas (42, Pinnacle)

FAU, which went 4-3 against 1-A opposition last year, returns only 4 starters on defense. The offense won’t score much, but the defense will surrender 42.

Kansas returns 6 starters on offense, including the QB and a wideout. The defense is good and may shut out FAU. Still, FAU cannot and will not stop Kansas.

Projected score: Kansas 48-3
Pick: Over 3*
Bonus Pick: Kansas -25 3.5*

And finally, here is my 3* Upset Special of the week:

San Diego State over UCLA

UCLA may be a top-10 team in my book, but SDSU is always feisty in big games, nearly knocking off Michigan in Ann Arbour last year. UCLA may have creamed them 33-10 in Rose Bowl last year, but SDSU will get its revenge.

I’m giving it 2.5* getting 10 ATS and 3* on the moneyline SU.

It is worth a shot.

Projected score: SDSU 23-21

Until next week, best of luck and may your picks be winners.