Following the 2001-2002 season in which the Celtics made it to the Eastern Conference finals, the Celtics’ brass (and probably even more importantly, ownership) had to decide whether or not to re-sign Rodney Rogers. Rogers, acquired in midseason and an essential piece of that team, was a free agent and potentially the difference between the C’s making it back to the conference finals or becoming a team that dies in the first or second round. Although Rogers expected Boston to pony up, then-Celtic owner Paul Gaston was in the process of selling the team and wanted to add as little payroll as possible and therefore offered Rogers the veteran minimum of about a $1 million. Bewildered and a little insulted, Rogers refused and signed with rival New Jersey, while Boston made an ill-fated trade for Vin Baker in an attempt to fill Rogers’ shoes. In short, it didn’t work, and the Celtics are still paying for that mistake, both literally and figuratively. Important as that offseason was towards establishing the Celtics as a powerful and competitive franchise, this summer should prove to be even more pivotal. Rogers was one of the final cogs in the Celtics’ doomed championship aspirations. Antoine Walker, however, one of two free agents on the Celtics’ current roster come the end of this season, is a cornerstone. In the 2002-03 season, even without a point guard or any contributions from Baker (to say nothing of the distractions he caused), Boston advanced to the second round, beating a more talented Pacers team. If Walker leaves at the end of this year, it is safe to say that the Green could very well fall out of the playoffs altogether next season.
Of course, the decision on whether to retain Walker’s services is one that will heavily depend on how much it will cost to keep him here. One of the primary reasons Walker was originally traded in 2003 was that he felt that he deserved an extension that started where his last contract ended, at $14.6 million. After being traded for the third time in the last year and a half, it’s apparent that Walker has backed off those demands and most authorities around the league believe that a contract starting around $7 or $8 million could get a deal worked out.
Given that the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement will expire following this season, as well as the C’s distaste for signing particularly long-term contracts, it’s unlikely that any deal would go beyond three or four years. So let’s say a deal is struck is struck for three years, $24 millon, and an option for a fourth year at another $8 million. It’s reasonable to believe that Walker would agree to a contract like this because, although there will be a number of teams with the salary cap space to sign Walker in the offseason, few are in need of a power forward (Denver’s already got K-Mart and Nene) or competitive enough for Walker’s liking (anyone think Antoine wants a return ticket to Atlanta?). When this hypothetical contract would end in 2008 or 2009, Walker would only be 31 or 32, not all that old for a forward and still able to make at least one more splash in free agency. If Danny Ainge wants Walker back, a deal like that shouldn’t weigh down the team too much. The Celtics will likely be over the salary cap for the first three years of the contract and even if a Walker deal pushes the team over in 2008, Ainge is on record saying that he doesn’t want to build a team through free-agency anyway, thereby making cap-space largely moot.
But the real question fans will be asking is this: Does a deal like that make sense for the Celtics? Before cost is even taken into account, there is major concern that Walker’s presence will stunt the development of the Celtics’ youth movement, specifically Al Jefferson. Jefferson is averaging a shade over 15 minutes per game this season, but since Walker’s arrival, he is down to 11.4 minutes (including a perplexing DNP-CD against the Pistons on Saturday night). Although Coach Doc Rivers stated that he believed second-year big man Kendrick Perkins would be the one to lose minutes following the Walker transaction, it’s clear that Big Al has been negatively affected from the Walker trade based solely on court time. However, before the trade, Jefferson’s minutes were as high as they were only because Raef LaFrentz was ahead of him on the Celtics’ frontcourt depth chart. One could make the argument that Jefferson’s game will improve with Walker around to show the kid how a real power forward can operate in the low post, even if Jefferson loses minutes to Walker during games.
The other question is probably the most vital: Do the Celtics want Walker around at all? Leaving any personal feelings the C’s may have for Walker aside (after the shocker of bringing Walker back at the trading deadline, can any of us, in good conscience, say that we have any idea what Ainge is thinking?), a deal should come down to whether they believe Walker can continue to play in the running game Rivers currently employs. For Walker’s first 12 games back in Boston, 11 of which were Celtic wins, Walker was playing completely within the system, stayed on the block, and shot 48.6% from the field. He also showed some very un-Walker-like restraint, averaging just three treys a game. In the three games since then, all losses, Walker appeared to revert to form and shot 32% from the field, taking six three-pointers each game and making a total of only four.
Which sample should the Celtics use? Personally, I think that only those with knee-jerk reactions would say that the most recent three games are the ones to trust. In 12 of 15 games, Walker did everything he was asked and the Celtics looked like world-beaters. So what if they’re going through a bad stretch right now? They’ve still won 11 of 15 games with Walker and the heart and leadership he’s brought to this club is immeasurable and undeniable. Jefferson will eventually learn to contribute consistently, but until then, the Celtics should go for the gold and attempt to be the offensive version of the 2004 Pistons. When Jefferson is ready in a couple of years, there will always be the option of trading `Toine for future assets. Lose him now and the Celtics will be borderline postseason participants for the next couple of years.
If you ask me, keeping Walker makes sense for the here and now and won’t hurt the team significantly in the future. This summer, we’ll find out if the Celtics agree.