Red Sox – Yankees in ’05: Who’s Got the Edge?

Even though there is more than a foot of snow outside my door, it is once again time to start talkin’ baseball.  And what better way to start off the spring, than to compare the Sox and Yankees?  Both teams certainly made headlines this winter and there are a lot of new faces to be accounted for.  Let’s start with a position by position analysis.  Catcher: Varitek v Posada
I’ve never really felt Posada was all that great. All his numbers are very good for a catcher, but he just can’t lead like Varitek does. When a pitcher starts to lose it, gets wild, or brings out the `I can’t believe this is happening’ face, Posada always sticks both hands out in some sort of a stop motion. I’m not exactly sure what this accomplishes, but it’s good for a laugh. Clearly, Varitek is a much better leader (hence that little C on his jersey…) but Posada’s overall numbers are usually slightly better. So I guess we’ll call this one a draw, even though I’d take Varitek behind the plate any day. It is like he is the Bill Belichik of catchers.
EDGE: EVEN

1st Base: Millar v T. Martinez(?), Giambi(?)
Martinez is one of the least talked about and most important acquisitions for the Yanks this winter. He provides a clubhouse leader, and brings back that feeling of the old, team-oriented Yankees of the `90s. As a Sox fan, that scares me. That scares me a lot. I don’t expect much from this Steroidless Giambi, except that he’ll pick up an enormous check every couple weeks. Millar is a lot like Tino, in that he brings something `special’ to the clubhouse every day. Millar will hit for a higher average, but his glove is nothing like Tino’s. Unless Tino starts to show his age (and being a Yankee again can only make him feel 25 again) like he did in 2002 and 2003, I say this is another draw.
EDGE: EVEN

2nd Base: Bellhorn v Womack
This one is the definition of a no-brainer. I’ll take Bellhorn over Womack in just about any category known to man. Womack may have some speed, but do you remember 2003? The man was flat out awful, he couldn’t stick anywhere (traded twice mid-season). The Yankees needed to plug the hole at second base, but I am positive this will not work out well for them. By the way, the man cannot perform in the post-season. Just look at the numbers. On the other hand, Bellhorn has more power, can drive the ball in the gap, and can come up with some absolutely huge hits. He’s no Mr. October, and he certainly strikes out a lot, but as a 9-hole hitter he is stunning. Not to mention, he turns the double play very nicely.
EDGE: SOX

Short Stop: Renteria v Jeter
Interesting comparison here to say the least. Jeter may have more power, but Renteria will hit for a higher average. Renteria clearly has better range and a better glove than Jeter. Jeter made one great play last year, and that won him the gold glove. Not to mention, Nomar was hurt and then traded, and everybody else seemed to be in the National League. Renteria won’t be the type of leader that Jeter likes to be, but he doesn’t need to be on this Red Sox team. Even though I want to throw this one to the Sox, Jeter’s extra pop and post-season record makes this a draw. But remember, Renteria did have the mother of all hits when he won the World Series for the Marlins back in 1997 with his single off Charles Nagy.
EDGE: EVEN

3rd Base: A-Rod v Mueller
Even though I really want to, I won’t make the case that Mueller is better or more clutch than A-rod. Even if the man cheated during a baseball game by childishly slapping an opposing player, (costing the Yankees a man in scoring position) he is still one of the best players out there. But let’s not forget Muller is all of this. His glove is above-average and is definitely underrated. And it was just a year ago that he won a batting title. Obviously, he doesn’t have the power that A-rod has, or a name that ends in `rod’. But then again, he never slapped the ball away like a little girl, either. And even though it pains me to say so, A-rod is the better player. But he certainly hasn’t proven to be clutch, especially in the post-season. Until he does, he won’t be a real Yankee.
EDGE: YANKEES

Left Field: Ramirez v Matsui
Manny Ramirez gives me a heart attack about every 10 games or so. We’re talking about the guy who made two errors during a World Series game in ONE inning, and the guy who cut off a throw from another outfielder. No one really knows why he does the things he does. Let’s face it; it’s just Manny being Manny. But oh for the sweet love of all things good, this guy can hit. Not to mention, he can make the occasional great play, like when he robbed Miguel Cairo or when he threw out Larry Walker at the plate. He also has a WS MVP under his belt. Pretty impressive résumé.

Nobody on the Yankees scares be more than Matsui. He always seems to come up with that nail in the coffin hit against the Sox. Still, his defense is erratic and hitting-wise he is no Manny (but then again, who is?). I respect Matsui as a great competitor, but give me the wild, crazy, always entertaining (and not to mention always hitting the ball 10 gazillion feet away) Manny Ramirez.
EDGE: SOX

Center Field: Damon v Williams
Two words – Carlos Beltran. Did anybody else think the Yankees would pass on Beltran? Biggest mistake ever ladies and gentlemen. Bernie is absolutely running on fumes from pervious fumes, and 5-tool post-season tested Center Fielders are few and far between. I can’t wait until somebody beats the Yankees in a big game over a bloop-hit to center that Beltran would have caught.

If Damon could throw the ball more than 30 feet at a time, he’d be an amazing center fielder. Right now, he’s still pretty darn good. He’ll track down anything, plus he’ll hit for average, steal a big base, and even has some pop. Bernie can’t steal a base anymore, and his range is probably average at best. This is definitely an old Bernie Williams. Major edge here to the Sox, the Yankees will be lucky if Bernie doesn’t end up on the 15 day DL every other month.
EDGE: SOX

Right Field: Nixon v Sheffield
Even though I don’t buy the `I can’t believe it’s not butter’ (or rather, I can’t believe it WAS butter) routine surrounding steroids and Sheffield, he still owns perhaps the most terrifying swing out there. He was clearly the MVP of the Yankees last year and fit in well. His shoulder still bothers him, but you wouldn’t know it. The question is, how long will it take before his shoulder completely quits. Even so, a Sheffield with one good arm still scares me. Somehow, someway, he’d learn to throw and catch the ball with one arm, at the same time. He’d even be a better player than he was before. He may come off as a jerk sometimes, but he can play.

Nixon is no slouch either. His defense is excellent and is a candidate for a .300AVG/25HR/90RBI type of year. That’s a big pickup for the Sox who played without him for most of the season. He’s no Gary Sheffield, but you should remember that the Sox were a very good team without him. Now add Nixon. And now you have an excellent team.
EDGE: YANKEES

DH: Ortiz v Sierra, Tino/Giambi
For a while, I wondered if I should even bother writing about this, seeing as how David Ortiz is the new Mr. October and all. Right now, it hardly matters who you’d run up there against Ortiz. I wouldn’t give this guy up for Bonds right now. He’s not only good, but he’s OH so clutch. Major edge to the Sox here.
EDGE: SOX

Starting Pitching: Aces in the hole – Schilling v Johnson
Nobody wouldn’t want Schilling or Johnson on their team. In fact, put them together and you have a team that finally beat the Yankees. And by the way, Schilling and Johnson? Co-MVPs. And who doesn’t remember Schilling and his bloody sock? You can’t make this stuff up. The only downside to both of these guys, is that they are aging (numerically at least). I’m positive that RJ now has a bionic knee, and Schilling had one very wacky procedure done to his ankle, which from now on should always be called `The Miracle’ procedure, or something far more impressive. RJ just got scratched from his first spring-training start, and while that isn’t the end of the world, Tanyon Sturtze can’t be making starts in RJ’s place a lot this year if the Yankees want to beat out the Sox. Schilling also needs to miraculously become 100% by April. Not because the Sox have no depth to cover a start, but because they play many important head to head games with the Yankees within the first couple weeks of the season. And after last year, the Yankees are sure to come out swinging.
EDGE: EVEN

SP #2: Wells, Miller (?) v Mussina
Mussina had a bad year last year, but it is a big question whether that was due to aging or nagging injuries. If he can win 18 games or so again, and keep his ERA down, the Yankees would be pretty unstoppable. The question is whether he will rebound or not. He’s not 25 anymore, but the mere mention of his knuckle-curve still scares me.

When people think of Wells they think of a fat loud-mouthed drunk. And that’s exactly why he will fit in well with this team. People always talk about his injuries, but the past three seasons he’s made 30+ starts. He can win 15 games easily with the Sox offense behind him. Not to mention, he is a left-hander pitching at Fenway, which can only help (in theory). Wells also seems to always come up huge in big games as well, a definite plus for the Sox.

The x-factor is all of this is the forgotten Wade Miller. He’s the Sox version of Tino Martinez (most important overlooked pick-up). This guy could easily win the #2 starter’s job by the end of the year. He will probably open up the year on the DL, but when he comes off he will be a force to be reckoned with. In the mean time, the Sox certainly can survive. For the first time in a long time, they have depth.

If the two-slot came down to a comparison of Mussina v Wells, it would be close. But with Miller available at some point, I think we have to call this one another draw.
EDGE: EVEN

SP #3: Clement v Pavano
Neither of these guys is a proven winner. Pavano had a career year with the Marlins, but who knows if he can repeat that with the Yankees. The one time I saw this guy pitch against the Sox, he failed to record a single out. I’m not kidding, look it up. Pavano also has some injury issues, but the last two years he has been a horse, pitching 200+ innings each year. Yet Pavano did this all in the NL, and it will be interesting to see how he reacts when he moves to the AL, and constantly faces deep lineups. He isn’t really a throw it by you kind of pitcher, which seems to be the type of pitcher than can do well in the AL. Time will tell with Pavano. But if he can repeat last year’s excellence, and RJ and Mussina can stay healthy and pitch well, the Yankees will win the AL East (but I wouldn’t predict what could happen in a 7 game series).

Clement is making the change over to the AL as well. Even though he’s been labeled a head case, I feel he will come on strong for the Sox. Under the watchful eye of Varitek, he should be able to harness his electric stuff. He’s definitely the type of pitcher than can survive a trip to the AL. Last year he had 190Ks in just 188 Innings, while Pavano had just 139Ks in over 220 Innings.
EDGE: EVEN

SP #4: Arroyo v Wright
I’m a poker player, so I like to bet now and then. Here is one bet I am all-in on. JARER WRIGHT WILL ABSOLUTELY STINK as a Yankee. The Yankees gave him a ridiculous deal based on one decent year. Even after his strong regular season, he was torched twice during the post-season. I have no idea what the Yankees were thinking here. Typically, this guy’s ERA is higher than Robert Downey Jr. In 2003, his ERA was higher than 8. He hadn’t been a regular starter since 1999 until 2004. And by now, we all know that the Braves can take a regular Joe and somehow turn him into a 15 game winner with an ERA below 3.75. By the way, this is why I am convinced Tim Hudson will win something like 50 games this year as a Brave. He actually has talent AND is getting the Brave magic. Watch out NL hitters. Be afraid; be very afraid.

Arroyo has one of the sickest breaking balls you’ve ever seen. And when he learns his fastball is pretty darn good too, he’ll be a pretty good pitcher. With Varitek and Schilling as his teachers, he should make some great progress this year and build on a solid 2004. I don’t think last year was a fluke; his stuff is just too nasty. Even if he makes no progress, but eats up innings and keeps the Sox in the game, he will be a far better pitcher than Wright. I give a major edge to the Sox here.
EDGE: SOX

SP #5 Wakefield v Brown
When Kevin Brown is healthy, he’s a great pitcher. Of course the last time he was healthy was during the Ford administration I believe. He’s also turning 40 in a couple weeks. That gives the Yankees two 40+ year olds in their rotation. That has to be scary. Who starts when Brown or RJ goes down? And what happen if both go down at the same time? Sturtze is a spot starter at best. Let’s just say things could get interesting in New York during the dog days of summer.

Wakefield will get clobbered every few times out there whenever his knuckle decides to become a floater, but he’s another inning eater and quality veteran. He’s also extremely flexible, which helps come playoff time. He doesn’t match up to a healthy Kevin Brown, but 30+ inning-eating starts are better than 12-15 good starts and 15 missed starts. But still, Brown’s career ERA is 3.20 and he did have a relatively healthy 2003. If he can stop himself from punching walls and obtaining weird stomach parasites/viruses, he could be good again.
EDGE: YANKEES (until somebody on the Yankee staff goes down)

Starting Pitching on the Whole
As I see it, the Yankees really have to rely on RJ, Mussina, Pavano, Wright, and Brown to remain healthy and effective for the entire year. No help is coming from AAA really, and Sturtze is a very shaky spot starter. The Sox have 7 true Starters – Schilling, Wells, Arroyo, Clement, Wakefield, Miller and Halama. Because of the Sox’s depth, and the quality of those 7, the edge here goes to the Sox.
EDGE: SOX

Bullpens: Foulke, Timlin, Embree, Mantei, Halama, etc v Rivera, Gordon, Quantrill, Rodriguez, Sturtze, Stanton/Karsay

The Yankee bullpen is deep with set-up men, but is thin with starters. Gordon and Quantrill will likely see less work now, which could keep them in better shape once they get to the playoffs. But the problem could be getting to the `pen. If any Yankee starter is ineffective or goes down, the only other real starter the Yankees have is Sturtze (and not a very good one at that). The Sox have 7 bonafied starters, with Miller and Halama on reserve for different reasons. The Sox don’t have the number of set-up men the Yankees do, and they are really relying on Mantei to take some of the burden of Timlin and Embree, but the rotation is full of inning-eaters which should help. If Mantei is healthy and effective, it won’t matter that the Yankees have more set-up guys. On a similar note, if the Yankee rotation stays healthy, their lack of starting depth won’t be a problem.

Until Mantei can show he has a clean bill of health and can be a great set-up guy, the depth of the Yankees wins the battle of the bullpens for now…
EDGE: YANKEES

I wouldn’t dare predict the winner of the AL East (not that it matters anyway, because either the Sox or Yankees will get the wild card), but it’s going to be a crazy season. I’ll see you all April 3rd for ALCS Game 8, errr, I mean Opening Day.

– Boston Rambler