How Good is Boston College?

With their loss to Villanova one day removed, the third ranked college basketball team in the nation probably isn’t questioning how good they really are?  Last night was, if there ever is one, a quality loss; on the road, in conference, to a ranked team.

But as you digger deeper into their schedule, you start to realize, this team isn’t the third best team in the country and their 11-2 conference record doesn’t add up to being favored in their own conference tournament.Before I go too far down the “giving BC no respect” path, let me start by saying that I have the utmost respect for how this team plays.  The team passes well, has good talent across its top seven players, enjoy playing together, and are well coached.  They are the type of team that America will enjoy watching make a run in March.  But they are not of number one seed quality.

I know their record is impressive.  How can you go 11-2 in the Big East and not get respect?  Here’s how:

Their toughest non-conference tests were at UCLA and at home against Clemson, two teams with a combined record of only five games over .500.  On top of that they played a stretch of three games that while they won, start to look pretty scary come March when a number one seed might be looking at teams just like there in the first round of the tourney; d. Holy Cross 63-60, d. Boston University 80-74, d. Yale 82-80, all of which where at home.

So while they entered Big East play 11-0, they should have been based on their schedule.  So they open the Big East schedule with a win over #9 UCONN  at Storrs, CT.  It was a great win for BC.  But truth be told, that UCONN team was a mess at the time.

Don’t get me wrong, BC proceeded to win every game that was put in front of them.  As they did their ranking climbed, as it should have.  So why do I consider them an upset waiting to happen?  An unbalanced Big East schedule.

While preseason conference favorites Syracuse, Pitt, UCONN, and Notre Dame all saw each other twice on their conference schedules, BC saw those teams only once.  Compare BC’s 11-2 conference record to UCONN’s 10-3 and then tell me which team has been tested more in conference.  You could even do the same with Syracuse’s 10-4 record.  I know BC beat them both and for that they get credit, but play both of those teams twice instead of once and that is at least one more loss, and maybe two.

BC has two tests remaining on their schedule, vs. Pitt at home and at the RAC in Rutgers.  They are more than likely set up for a bye in the first round of the conference tournament and on their way to no lower than a three seed in the NCAAs.  But I don’t expect to see them winning the Big East tournament, and I don’t see them making it out of the Sweet Sixteen in March.