Eight teams to watch in March

I’m going to be honest about this.  I am stealing this idea from either Seth Davis or Grant Wahl over at CNNSI.com.  I just think it is a great/ballsy move to trot out.  With college basketball season halfway over, I am going to list eight teams.  Out of these eight squads, one will be cutting down the nets in St. Louis.  I’m not saying to run out to your bookie and bet the farm on any of these teams, but let the record show that I have my finger on the pulse of college sports.  Take a look at my three major predictions from college football season.  At the beginning of the season I called Utah going undefeated, USC winning the National Title and Matt Leinart winning the Heisman.Trimming the field to eight teams was one of the most difficult things I have done thus far.  Parity abounds in college basketball.  Like the NFL, that’s what makes this sport so successful.  There are honestly fifteen teams that could make a run to the Final Four.  There’s another ten that I could see finding their way into the Elite Eight (and that includes bracket buster pick St. Mary’s).  You’ll notice a common theme with all of these teams.  Every single one has a serviceable to great point guard, a legit post threat, and swing guy who can play.  

Without further adieu, here are the eight teams from which I believe a champion will emerge.  We are going to start off with three teams that are completely intertwined because of their coaches.

North Carolina:  I witnessed the a$$ kicking the Tar Heels put on the Yellow Jackets of Georgia Tech last night.  That followed up the monumental beating that handed to the Maryland Terrapins.  This Tar Heel team is the most talented team in the country and they have all the ingredients for tournament success.  Raymond Felton is an outstanding point guard.  Felton makes good decisions in both transition and half court.  If a play breaks down, Felton can also get his own shot.  That is HUGE in the NCAA Tournament.  Rashad McCants is an NBA caliber performer who can dominate stretches of the game on the perimeter.  Inside, there are only about five guys in America who can guard Sean May one on one.  May has soft hands and excellent post moves.  He reminds me so much of Elton Brand.  This team has great role players in Jawad Williams, Jackie Manuel and Melvin Scott.  Williams has especially improved to the point that I think he has the NBA in the future.  This team also has a pair of freshmen in Quintin Thomas and Marvin Williams that I think will provide great energy down the stretch.

Kansas:  The Jayhawks are probably the safest choice to find their way to St. Louis.  They have loads of tournament experience and all of the necessary parts to win the belt.  Aaron Miles has played in two Final Fours and just makes great decisions at the point.  He’s a guy who will get drafted late but end up starting for some NBA team, just like Chris Duhon.  Wayne Simien must be double-teamed.  Nobody has more refined post moves in college basketball.  Keith Langford can drill the trifecta and has really improved the way he puts the ball on the floor.  I love the explosiveness that J.R. Giddens brings to the table.  Simien getting hurt early in the year opened valuable minutes for Alex Galindo and Galindo showed that he is a legit post presence.  Christian Moody is easily the best walk-on in America.  Finally, I like Bill Self and think he is the right guy to lead this team to the Promised Land.  

Illinois:  The Ilini simply play the best team ball in America.  I love their backcourt of Dee Brown and Deron Williams.  They will lift Illinois far in the tournament.  James Augustine is more than capable down low.  I’ve been high on this guy since his freshman season.  I think he is a “nitty-gritty” guy who does all the little things that help a team win.  Keep your eye on Luther Head.  Head has improved to the point that he has to be considered one of the best twenty or thirty players in America.

Wake Forest:  This was my preseason favorite to win the NCAA Tournament.  There’s not a better point guard in America than Chris Paul.  That means something, especially in March.  The Demon Deacons are loaded in the backcourt as Justin Gray is an NBA caliber performer and Taron Downey is one of the better sixth men in the nation.  A common adage in NCAA Tournament play is that it is won in the backcourt.  If that’s true then Wake Forest will be cutting down the nets.  The Demon Deacons have two talented post players in Vytas Danelius and Eric Williams.  

Oklahoma State:  The Cowboys made the Final Four last season and returned four starters from that team.  One of the returnees was the hero from last March in John Lucas Jr.  There is not a more cerebral point guard in the nation.  Never forces anything, but will take the big shot when necessary.  On the wing is Joey Graham.  Graham is one of the most athletically gifted players in the nation and will be a force in March.  Daniel Bobik is a lights-out shooter from downtown.  The rest of this crew is a bunch of rugged, tough guys.  That’s just the way Eddie Sutton likes it.  Ivan McFarlin and Stephen Graham will both fight under the basket and get after you on defense.  You know what else and I think this is big.  If the national title was determined by who would win a team fistfight after the game, nobody would beat the Cowboys.  I like that.

Duke:  When everybody was counting them out at the beginning of the year, I smiled.  I hate Duke as much as the next guy, but to rank them out of the top ten and say they don’t have a shot was some of the biggest stupidity I have seen in years.  ESPECIALLY when they were returning their best player from the prior year in J.J. Redick.  Redick has really built upon his season from last year and looks more and more like a young Reggie Miller.  There has not been a better shooter in college basketball in years, but what has impressed me is how Redick is now able to put the ball on the floor and get to the hoop.  This was the ingredient in his game that was missing.  Coach K will have this team fighting for a spot in St. Louis.  I can guarantee it.  The thing about Duke is that they could have a walk-on in the starting five and still expect to win because they are Duke.  Coach K is the guy who gives them that attitude and swagger.  Daniel Ewing has grown before our eyes in the last four years and is playing great basketball.  He gives the Blue Devils another threat on the perimeter.  Shelden Williams is a hard-nosed player down low.  It will be important for Duke that he remains out of foul trouble because the alternatives to him are few.  The other key to Duke is Sean Dockery.  If he can just be solid in big games then Duke will be alright.  Watch out for DeMarcus Nelson.  He is a player.  Nelson hasn’t taken over a game yet, but the Sacramento native has the talent to.

Gonzaga:  They’ve already proved their mettle on a neutral court as they have wins over Georgia Tech and Oklahoma State.  The Zags boast the best pair of forwards in the country in Ronny Turiaf and Adam Morrison.  When Turiaf is healthy he overwhelms other post players with his incredible athleticism.  He has really worked on his overall game and his post moves have become much more refined.  Adam Morrison is the real deal.  Do you want to know what another key to winning in the Big Dance is?  When you have the best player on the court, you have a chance to win games.  There is nobody on the collegiate level who can cover Adam Morrison when Morrison wants to take over.  Morrison is a 6’9″ small forward who can drill it from outside and can also put it on the floor, get into the lane and shoot right over you.  The other guys on the Zags play their roles perfectly.  Erroll Knight is a great perimeter defender; Knight is an athlete who can slash to the basket.  J.P. Batista and Sean Mallon are both threats down low.  The key to this team will be the continued improvement of point guard Derek Raivio.  Raivio is a lights out shooter and has been really progressed throughout the year.  As long as he does not fall into the trap of trotting out his flashy handle and overdribbling, the Zags will be fine.

Georgia Tech:  Even though they got slapped last night by North Carolina and got beat pretty nicely by the Zags, you have to like this team.  They are playing without star off-guard B.J. Elder, but he will be back eventually.  This team still returns every significant part from the team that made the run to the Finals last season.  Jarrett Jack is a good point guard who can kill with the dribble.  Will Bynum is explosive as well.  When Elder comes back they have a great three guard attack on the perimeter.  Luke Schenscher is a legit 7’2″ who can block shots and rebound.  His offensive game also keeps improving.  There’s no way Schenscher does not got drafted in the first round and that is a testament to how he has improved as a ballplayer.  I have to defer to a group of guys who have gotten there before and that’s why the Ramblin’ Wreck are the last of my eight teams.