The allure of potential- fool’s gold

As Jameer Nelson’s disappointed eyes fell to the floor, his hands enveloping his indisputably adorable son, Jameer Jr., while eight high schoolers climbed the stage and walked to the podium, adorned in their new team’s hat, drafted above the Naismith Player of the Year, the “future” of the NBA climbed into the warm womb of potential with the ominous specter of miscarriage hanging overhead.
Nelson, a proven winner who brought St. Joseph’s to the brink of an undefeated season and one buzzer-beater away from the final four, was described by his coach, Phil Martelli, as “the most special person I ever coached.” He was projected last year as a lottery pick, returned to school to raise his stock and distinguished himself as one of the top players in college. However, teams felt 19 players had greater potential.

The draft began on the shoulders of potential, with Dwight Howard, a high schooler with promising skills, yet rumored to be “soft,” selected above Emeka Okafor, a defensive force, college basketball’s purest talent and a player who always seemed to come up in the biggest moments, dominating the Final Four and leading UConn to a national championship.

Teams fear the grand miscalculation, repeating the same mistakes made by Golden State, Todd Fuller over Kobe Bryant and Adonal Foyle over Tracy McGrady,  and select potential over proven talent.

While Dwight Howard may someday be Kevin Garnett and Shaun Livingston may some day be Bryant, who of this draft class will be the next Darius Miles?

The draft will never be predictable; aside from the occasional Shaq or Tim Duncan, there are no sure things. Teams will always draft college heroes like Christian Laettner and some will inevitably fall below expectations. But when did college success become a weight to bare, a disadvantage to overcome?

With the rash of players jumping from high school directly to the NBA, the college game is indisputably depleted. There are fewer talented players who merit a high draft pick. However, as Jameer Nelson sat and waited, the question needed to be asked — have teams gone too far?

The most obvious error may have come when the Portland Trailblazers, needing a point guard, selected New York high school phenom Sebastian Telfair over Nelson, two short point guards with contrasting possibilities. Telfair is speedy, creative and raw. He wasn’t invited to attend the draft-day proceedings and many felt he was too risky to take as a lottery pick. Nelson was invited, yet when the Blazers came on the clock with the 13th pick, it was Telfair’s name that was called.

Why take a risk on a kid with a shoe deal and no experience? Telfair has more upside than Nelson. Where that upside leads, no one can know, but the uncertainty, due to past oversights, causes fear and excitement, motivation enough, it seems.

Howard may prove to be a better player than Okafor and Telfair may prove better than Nelson, but it seems intrinsically wrong that college success could prove a deterrent for teams.

Potential is a mesmerizing thing, mystery inherently inspiring. While the unknown may be intoxicating, it seems as if NBA teams are drunk. The message needs to be “Drink responsibly,” take a few sips of high school talent from time to time, but don’t lose sight of the value of an ice-cold glass of college veteran.