By Cellar Dweller, Section NFL
Posted on Mon Sep 04 2006 at 10:22 PM EST 
More on: NFL predictions, picks (all tags)
The annual jaunt to professional football immortality, better known as the Super Bowl, begins in earnest in less than one week. Of the 32 teams in pursuit, two will be forever remembered; one as the glorious victor, the other as their inglorious victim. Who will they be this year? Will it be like last year, where two perennial playoff teams (Steelers, Seahawks) that had come up short finally achieve the immortality? Will it be reminiscent of the 1999 season when two teams came out of nowhere (Titans, Rams) to deliver not only their own immortality, but an immortal game, as well? No one really knows. And, it's good that prediction columns are not immortal (see last year's column).
NFC East
This division has been highly touted as the best in football. Sorry, but it's not. It wasn't last year, and it won't be this year. This division will return to what it was in the years prior to last year's aberration. The Eagles will be on top and the other teams will be mediocre. Philly is back. The defense is back. The Hall of Fame quarterback is back. The hunger is back. For four consecutive years the Eagles were unquestionably the best team in the NFC. Last year's collapse can be attributed to two things, Terrell Owens, and the Super Bowl loser's recent year after letdown. I know that it looked like the Giants, Cowboys, and Redskins all surpassed the Eagles with youth and acquisitions, but the reality remains that Donovan McNabb is still the best quarterback in the division and the Eagles are still the most balanced team. The Giants will be a tough team, but Tiki Barber will not have as big a year as 2005, and Eli Manning is not yet the quarterback to lead a team to dominance. As for the Redskins and Cowboys, how long do they think their starting quarterbacks are going to hold up? And, does anyone really believe their backup qb's can lead them to victory?
NFC West
Last year I picked the Arizona Cardinals to win this division. Well, I peaked early, because it's this year that the Cardinals will fly high in the NFC West. The addition of Edgerrin James will have the most impact of any NFL offseason acquisition. He was the engine that started the Colts offense, and he will do the same for the Cardinals. Seattle will suffer from the same Super Bowl loser's letdown as Philly, Carolina, Oakland, St. Louis, and the New York Giants did in the preceding years. They may not finish sub-.500, but they will not reach the playoffs. The Rams will struggle to find an identity under their new coach. They are attempting to transition into a run first, and it may take much of the year before this young team finds its legs. The 49'ers? They may compete for the number one overall draft pick again this year.
NFC North
This is the Chicago Bears division to lose. Although the offense will be improved with a healthy Rex Grossman, or Brian Griese, there might not be a team more capable of dominating solely with just one side of the ball. Unless you have Steve Smith, the Bears can't be passed on, and they can't be run on, either. The Bears could reach the Super Bowl with that defense and an efficient offense. Other than that, this is the worst division in football. The Lions are forever rebuilding and it may be a year before Mike Martz can work wonders with the offense. The Vikings have no one to catch the ball, no one to run the ball, and really, no one to pass the ball. And, the Packers still have Brett Favre, unfortunately. This year should leave no question as to whether Favre's going to retire or not.
NFC South
Definitely, this is the best division in football. The NFC South has sent a representative to the NFC Championship game in each of the past 4 years (Panthers twice, Bucs, Falcons). This division sent two teams to the playoffs last year, and the Falcons were playoff caliber all year. This year, the Falcons return to the top of the division. For all the criticism of Michael Vick, his passing last year was similar to his passing in the year that the team went to the NFC Championship game. The difference is a defense that went from ninth in the league against the run in 2004 to 26th in the league against the rush last year. That means less time of possession for an offense still in the infancy of learning a new system. The defense has been shored up, and Vick will continue to grow, excite, and win. The Carolina Panthers might be the most complete team in the NFL. They are good at all phases of the game. However, their running game can't dominate, their passing game can't dominate, and their defense is not dominant. The Bucs will run the ball very well, and Chris Simms will mature as a quarterback. This should be a consistent team for a number of years. The New Orleans Saints will be vastly improved. The additions of Drew Brees and Reggie Bush automatically make this a competitive team. All four teams in this division will be in the hunt for playoff spots.
AFC East
How many losses can the Patriots sustain and still remain at the top of this division. As I predicted last year, the Patriots defense dictated their championship hopes. After finishing 1 and 2, respectively, the previous two years, New England was ranked 17th in defense last year. I don't see much defensive improvement this year, and I again predict no playoff participation for the Pats. The Miami Dolphins will win the AFC East. Daunte Culpepper, a good running game, and a stout defense will prove to be the recipe to unseat the Patriots. Even with Chad Pennington back, I don't see the Jets making any moves this year. The defense will stay strong, but this team can't be relied on in either the running or passing game. The Buffalo Bills will need a big year from Willis McGahee to alleviate pressure from a young J.P. Losman. If Losman can get through the year with his confidence intact, this will be a team to watch out for in the future.
AFC West
I think defense is more scheme and motivation than it is great players. You must be committed to playing great defense, it must be a priority. The Kansas City Chiefs have the schemer and motivator in their head coach, Herman Edwards. The addition of Edwards to a team as explosive on offense as the Chiefs translates into at least a division title. Denver will struggle at times with Jake Plummer's confidence as the pendulum. However, their running game is so dominant, their defense so solid, and their coach so steady that I don't see them falling out of the playoffs. The Chargers are in for a rude awakening if they actually think a first year starter at qb will be able to keep their playoff ship afloat. The Raiders are a difficult team to gauge. The defense, on paper, has gotten better, and the offense has the components for explosiveness. Why is Aaron Brooks so maligned? In the three seasons prior to last year, he had thrown for 71 touchdowns and 39 interceptions. Over the span of the same three seasons, Tom Brady had passed for 79 touchdowns and 40 interceptions. Why isn't he said to be prone to the big mistake?
AFC North
By far this is the most intriguing division in the league. Any one of three teams can be said to be legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The defending league champ Pittsburgh Steelers, the defending division champ Cincinnati Bengals, and a former league champ with a former Super Bowl, Pro Bowl, and league MVP now at the helm at quarterback, means this division is up for grabs. Until I saw Carson Palmer in the preseason, I was reticent to pronounce the Bengals as division champs this year. But, as long as he feels comfortable on that rehabbed knee, then they should repeat as division champs. Closely followed behind Cincy will be the new look, offensively efficient, still defensively dominant Baltimore Ravens. McNair leads this team back to the playoffs. The Steelers will be good, but due to the loss of Antwaan Randle-el, and the uncertainty revolving around Bill Cowher's future, I see the champs missing the playoffs. As far as Cleveland, has any recent team been as snake-bitten as the Browns?
AFC South
The only reason anyone is picking the Colts to win the Super Bowl this year is because the AFC seems to have gotten weaker, and/or they are rooting for the nice guys to finally not finish last (not quite last, though). The reality is that the Colts will not be nearly as good of a team as last year, and they didn't get it done then. The loss of Edgerrin James will tremendously impact the Colts offense. I'm going on record as saying that Peyton Manning will be out with an injury before December. The Colts offense will miss the running threat of Edge, the receiving abilities of Edge, and almost as importantly, the blocking of Edge. Opposing defenses will adopt the Steelers and Chargers blueprint for pressuring and defeating the Colts offense. This division now belongs to the Jacksonville Jaguars. As correctly predicted last year, the Jags turned the corner and made the playoffs. This year they will assert their dominance and make a serious run towards immortality. The Tennessee Titans would be wise to give inVINCEable Young the Carson Palmer treatment and let him sit and learn for a year. With Lendale White in the backfield, this will be a very good team once Young takes the reins. Not this year though. The Houston Texans did not draft Reggie Bush, or trade down for more draft picks - enough said. Another year in the cellar.
AFC Division Winners and Wild Card Teams
- Kansas City
- Jacksonville
- Cincinnati
- Miami
- w Baltimore
- w Denver
NFC Division Winners and Wild Card Teams
- Philadelphia
- Atlanta
- Arizona
- Chicago
- w Carolina
- w Tampa Bay
Super Bowl
Philadelphia over Kansas City
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