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2006 National College Football Preview

By Vtknowitall, Section College
Posted on Fri Sep 01 2006 at 8:43 PM EST
More on: college football, predictions, picks (all tags)

No real intro, I just want to say that I am a Virginia Tech fan, so nobody jump on me for making a homer pick, because I picked a team to win the National Title that lots of columnists here are fans of.

    Vince Young is gone. Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart are gone. A wide open season of college football with no clear favorite is coming up fast, so I ask, are you ready for some football guessing games?
    As you can see, I do not see an obvious choice for National Champion. Nor does anyone else, as the "experts" have multiple guesses, ranging from Notre Dame to Ohio State to Florida to Auburn. So, first off, I will not be picking a favorite, such as those above, as usual. And of course, you will not find out who I pick to win the new BCS Championship game until the very end of the column. Now, let's talk about the big stories for this year's college football season.

    Maybe the most noticeable change is the addition of a bowl game. Yes, that's right, the Houston Bowl will be a game played between the Big 12 and Big East or the Big 12 and Conference USA. Aren't you excited? Just kidding. While the Houston Bowl is actually a new bowl, the game I intend to talk about is the new BCS National Championship Game. It is now a 5th BCS bowl, meaning that the Rose, Sugar, Fiesta and Orange no longer have to scramble up their affiliations because one of them has to host the championship. The Championship game will be played in Glendale, Arizona at the Arizona Cardinals brand new NFL facility. All the BCS games, except the Rose Bowl, will be played out on FOX this season. The National Championship Game is on January 8th, 5 days after the rest of the BCS games conclude. However, several bowls jumped at the chance to be time fillers for that span. The International Bowl, played in Toronto is among them, a thrilling matchup of Big East vs. MAC. I'm sure Canadians will be very impressed.

    Another big story for the media is Notre Dame's return to contention. For the media and apparently the NCAA, Charlie Weis and Brady Quinn are the heaven sent disciples of touchdown Jesus. Frankly, Notre Dame has not proven their defense to be any better than below average, and their offense lacks a running game worthy of a national title. Any other team with those problems would be ranked out of the top 10. But this is Notre Dame, and they sit second in the preseason AP poll. Notre Dame is not in a conference in football, however they steal bids to bowls from the Big East or Big 10 every year. They recently got off on NCAA violations by being told to "not do it again." It is completely unfair and crooked for not only the media, but the NCAA, the governing body, to provide special treatment to any one school. However, not only does Notre Dame own NBC's coverage, they apparently own the key's to the NCAA. While nobody wants to admit it, Notre Dame is receiving special treatment, cheating, and "Jesus" is watching it all first hand.

    Everybody wants to talk about the Heisman trophy. Actually, most people want to go ahead and hand it to the aforementioned Brady Quinn. Much like preseason polls, Heisman Trophy talk has no business being discussed in August. The two leading candidates (Quinn and Ohio State QB Troy Smith) could be hurt the first week of the season, then what? Frankly the preseason polls and Heisman talk have cost teams national championships and players their deserved glory. This may sound biased, but Michael Vick should have won the Heisman Trophy in 1999, however he was slighted because Chris Weinke was the favorite at the beginning and did nothing to lose it. It should be for the winner to take, not the favorite to lose. On the preseason poll topic, in 2004 Auburn was ranked lower in the Top 25 than USC and Oklahoma, favorites all along. Auburn proceeded to go undefeated, and do it more impressively than Oklahoma in most people's minds. However, the polls could not find reason to drop Oklahoma because they were in front all along and did nothing to lose it. Auburn went undefeated, beating Tech in the Sugar Bowl, while USC demolished Oklahoma in a lopsided championship game. Had the polls started after opinions could be justly formed, there might have been a completely different feel to the college football world.

Ok, before my Top 25, here are your teams of note and games of the year.

Sleepers

Texas Tech- Remember UCLA last year? This is my huge sleeper pick. As the Big 12 monarchy is weak, Texas Tech now has the ability with an improving defense and always stellar offense to take the Big 12 crown and head to the BCS. They have two good QBs that could step in as needed and their wide receiving unit is among the best. They are without a proven running back, but this is Texas Tech, so it really doesn't matter. A good running back is a bonus. I have Texas Tech going to the Rose Bowl as a one loss team, beating both Texas and Oklahoma. Who do they lose to you ask?

TCU- Yes, the Horned Frogs are making my list. As they opened up with a win last year over Oklahoma, they had a shot at the BCS. However they squandered that with a loss to SMU. This year they will beat Texas Tech and everyone else on their schedule en route to the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl.

Those are my BCS level sleepers, but I have more, not quite as heavy sleepers...

Boston College- They beat Virginia Tech and head to a two loss season, starting an upswing and landing them in the Gator Bowl. I think someone may dethrone Florida State in the Atlantic Division next season.

Pitt- This is a very young team with two good senior leaders. QB Tyler Palko and LB H.B. Blades should have this team in good shape with a soft early schedule to beat Louisville late in the season, spoiling the Cardinals BCS hopes.

South Carolina- Many people doubt that they will be able to win 7 games. I say they confidently win 9 games, including matchups over Georgia and Clemson. However, they do not manage to beat Florida in the Spurrier matchup. Watch for them to make progress as Cade Thompson will take over the QB spot at some point.

Overrated

Notre Dame- They are not the most overrated team in the country, however, they certainly do not deserve the Championship predictions they are receiving. The expectations are always way too high at Notre Dame, but I think the whole country is buying it this time. Let me clear things up for you. Their running game is useless in a key situation, see USC game. Their passing game only has one decent receiver, Jeff Samardzija, and running back Darius Walker. Their next leading returning pass catcher is tight end Jeff Carlson, 7 receptions. While Brady Quinn is a very solid passer, and Charlie Weis is a great coach, don't compare this team to the Super Bowl champion Patriots, the model for this team. If Brady Quinn were Tom Brady, he finds a way to win the USC game last year. They lost key weapons from last year's team and do not have any major talent to replace it. You can argue that the defense returns 9 starters, but that is not an argument for Notre Dame because the defense was terrible last year. On top of all of that, pressure situations will be problem spots, as they start a true freshman at kicker.

Clemson- As I may have mentioned, I cannot find the reason why Clemson has suddenly become a trendy sleeper pick this season. Basically everything is the same from last year, except they lost their star on offense and their star on defense, from a team that went 8-4. They must break in a new QB, and try to mend a depleted secondary. Clemson should be woken up early when they face Boston College and Florida State back to back on the road in early September.

Georgia- I am beginning to think that the pollsters vote according to name and do not bother to look at the team. Georgia will be lucky to win 8 games this year. Their offensive and defensive lines are paper thin. That only makes it worse that they have no solid QBs on the roster after the departure of DJ Shockley. Let's add some more on, they have one talented WR in Mohammed Massqoui, but other than that, the receiving position is bare. DE Quentin Moses is a great player, but teams will likely have the luxury of double or triple teaming him. Good luck justifying that preseason poll position.

Oregon- The only thing uglier than their uniforms is their conference schedule, as they play all of their tough opponents on the road, and with young QBs to boot.

Games of the Year

Ohio State at Texas (September 9th)- A Vince-less Texas is still Young at QB, which will likely be the reason Ohio State wins this game. The defending national champs won this matchup last year, could this year's game propel Ohio State to that promise land?

Penn State at Notre Dame (September 9th)- This will be the game of the year that nobody is talking about. Notre Dame, believe it or not, is too cocky to realize that Penn State is a threat. As the Irish look towards USC and Michigan, they will lose to Penn State. The Nittany Lions have the two things that it will take to beat the Irish this year, great wide receivers and great multitasking linebackers.

Nebraska at USC (September 16th)- This is a game that will force USC's young backfield to mature. The line will have to step up and hold back the Nebraska "Black Shirt Defense." Booty will have to make good decisions fast. I still pick USC, because Nebraska has one great corner in Zackary Bowman, but the rest of the secondary is suspect.

LSU at Auburn (September 16th)- Just in case you did not know, September 16th is the best college football day of the year this season. Anyway, LSU and Auburn are very equal teams. Actually, if this game were in Baton Rouge my decision might go the other way, but I'm picking Auburn because I am more confident in Brandon Cox and Kenny Irons to step up for Auburn. JaMarcus Russell, LSU QB, has had problems being consistent in big games.
Other Big games on September 16th: Michigan at Notre Dame, Miami at Louisville, Oklahoma at Oregon, Florida at Tennessee.

Penn State at Ohio State (September 23rd)- This will be the epic of the year. Penn State is notably bad historically in Columbus, but I think their skill players catch Ohio State off guard and their defense holds up. Likely an overtime game, Penn State dashes both title favorites in 3 weeks.

Cal at USC (November 18th)- I think USC enters undefeated, looking forward to Notre Dame and comes out with a loss, just like Cal, and having lost their Pac 10 title.

Notre Dame at USC (November 25th)- If my predictions are right, this will not be quite as big of a deal as most think it will be. Both teams will have one loss. However, in my predictions, the winner will get an at-large BCS bid, and the loser will not. Both teams lost talent, but by this time USC will be back in the swing of things. I have no idea what has possessed people to think that Notre Dame can come into the Coliseum with USC fighting for a major bowl and beat them. The Trojans slay the Green Weenies.

Top 25
Projected Final Standings

25. UTEP- This mid major should once again crack the Top 25 with a nice season.
    
24. Nebraska- This program is ascending once again. The QB spot is so-so, but the defense is coming on with the Black Shirt mentality. They have talent at running back, and if one of their young backs gets it rolling, watch out.
    
23. Oklahoma- Rhett Bomar just wrecked their season. Adrian Peterson will likely have a great year, but if they ever need to throw the ball, the Sooners will be out of luck.
    
22. Georgia- Here is where the Bulldogs will land after a down season.
    
21. Pitt- A nice reward for this young team.
    
20. Michigan- Lloyd Carr will really be feeling the heat after this 3 loss season, maybe even the fire.
    
19. Tennesee- Phil Fulmer has to make this team rebound this year, or else he and all of his staff will be on the chopping block. A new offensive coordinator will have to bring the talent back out of QB Erik Ainge.
    
18. South Carolina- They have young, somewhat experienced talent at the skill positions in a trio of sophomores headlined by WR Sidney Rice. The Quarterback is Blake Mitchell for now, but the more talented Cade Thompson will likely take that spot.
    
17. Louisville- Brian Brohm is back, Michael Bush is returning. Their offense is loaded, and I think they will beat West Virginia. Actually, they have a shot at Miami. But a good defense, like South Florida could spoil their season.
    
16. Miami- Kyle Wright is going to get his hat handed to him by any good defense they come across.
    
15. Florida State- They will hand Kyle Wright his hat, proceed to go undefeated until they lose two in a row to Florida and then the ACC Championship game.
    
14. Iowa- Actually the third best team in the Big 10 this season. That conference isn't loaded or anything.
    
13. Texas- They will beat Oklahoma, but lose to Texas Tech and Ohio State.
    
12. LSU- The schedule really isn't nice to LSU. They play Auburn, Florida and Tennessee on the road. I think they are bound to lose at least one of those, I say they lose two.
    
11. Notre Dame- I think they just miss out on a BCS bid in a year where they are supposed to win it all. Maybe if they didn't schedule as if they were an All-Star team on an American tour they could fulfill expectations.

Rose Bowl
#5 California over #9 Texas Tech
The Texas Tech passing game will be sniffed out by a very intelligent defense of Cal, headlined by experienced corners Tim Mixon and Daymeion Hughes.

Fiesta Bowl
#6 West Virginia over #10 TCU
In what some might call the small market bowl, the spread gets the better of the Horned Frogs, who lose their undefeated record, but show that a mid-major can make the BCS.

Orange Bowl
#3 Ohio State over #6 Virginia Tech
Here we go. I see this playing out somewhat like the Sugar Bowl against Auburn. Ohio State will definitely be able to hold our offense back. The game will be determined on how well we contain their offensive skill players. I think we will almost have to completely shut them out, so I don't think we pull it out against the third best team in the nation.

Sugar Bowl
#4 Florida over #7 USC
I think Chris Leak gets the better of John David Booty in this matchup. The Gator defensive line ought to be one of the best around, and that will cause problems for USC's offense, especially with a solid secondary to back it up.

BCS National Championship Game
Glendale, Arizona
January 8th, 2007

#1 Penn State over #2 Auburn
The Nittany Lions will come in the underdog and leave with another national title for Joe Pa. Paul Posluszny, Dan Connor and Tim Shaw, the Penn State linebackers, will contain Kenny Irons and Brandon Cox.  Penn State QB Anthony Morelli and his stellar wide receiving unit will manipulate one of Auburn's only weaknesses, the lack of depth at the cornerback position. After not being exposed by a receiving short SEC schedule, Auburn will not be able to cover Penn State's multiple wide receivers. Derrick Williams is big and fast. He will likely be contained by Auburn's one good corner, David Irons. However, Deon Butler and Jordan Norwood will run free for the Nittany Lions.

Penn State 31 Auburn 20