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By Garrett Rudolph, Section MLB
In an offensive era, where records and milestones are continuously coming into question, few eyebrows are raised suspiciously toward the achievements of pitchers. So, where the top offensive player of this generation stands on shaky ground with regards to his future Hall of Fame induction, the top two pitchers-- Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux-- are already booking hotel reservations for Cooperstown and scheduling tee-times at the Leatherstocking Golf Course. For the next eight top pitchers... they'll have to read this article before they start making flight plans. Who's Going to the Hall, and Who's Watching the Ceremony on Baseball Tonight, by Garrett Rudolph.
The Big Unit has lead the league in ERA four times, strikeouts nine times, recorded three 20-win seasons, and won five Cy Youngs. Oh, and he's 3rd in career strikeouts and has 270 wins. This isn't much of an argument, is it? Verdict: In The only real question is which hat he'll be wearing on the plaque.
Tom Glavine Glavine's two Cy Youngs, five 20-win seasons, and World Series MVP should guarantee him to be a first-ballot entrant. If any doubt remains, he shouldn't have any problem reaching the 300 win mark (he needs 15). Verdict: In The only stat that can guarantee a pitcher to get into the Hall of Fame is 300 wins, but no modern-era pitcher has ever recorded four 20-win seasons and not gotten in. Glavine has five.
John Smoltz Smoltz's career is similar to Dennis Eckersly's in that they both began their careers as starters, but switched to closers toward the end, but comparing Smoltz to Eck is impossible. Eck was a freak of nature. He threw for 24 seasons, almost 3,300 innings. He racked up over 170 wins (Smoltz has over 180), and 380 saves (Smoltz only has 154). From his debut in '88, until his elbow surgery in '99 Smoltz wasn't the best or second-best pitcher in the league--in fact, he wasn't even the second-best pitcher on his team. If you use 300 wins as a bench-mark, Smoltz would never be in the Hall of Fame conversation--300 wins requires the equivalent of twenty 15-win seasons. In twelve seasons that he's been a full-time starter, he's only topped 15 wins five times. The only reason he's even included in the discussion is the three dominant years in which he was the Braves' closer. And those three years were dominant, averaging 48 saves per season, at a success rate of 92%. Even with those numbers, though, you must remember, that there are currently only 4 closers in the Hall of Fame, a list which does not include Goose Gossage or Lee Smith. Verdict: Out Until the Hall voters start putting a greater emphasis on closers, Smoltz will be one of the great pitchers on the outside, looking in.
Curt Schilling Curt Schilling is a great example of the importance of the five-year rule between retirement and Hall of Fame eligibility. If it weren't for the five-year rule, Schilling could retire tomorrow and be inducted for the class of 2007, simply based on his popularity stemming from his 2001 World Series performance, Red Sox Nation and the bloody sock incident. Two seasons later, and he's still regarded as a mythical hero in Boston; five years later, and Arizona wants him to replace John McCain in the senate; thirteen years after he helped the Phillies make it to the World Series and they're still ruing the day he left the City of Brotherly Love. But let his career dwindle back down into the stratosphere, wait five years after his retirement and then evaluate his career as a whole and without emotional attachment. So far, in 20 seasons he has 201 wins, an ERA of 3.41, and a career winning percentage a shade over .600. Good numbers, but well short of greatness. Certainly, his stellar postseason achievements (7-2, 2.06 ERA, 4 CG, 2 shutouts) lend some benefit-of-the-doubt to his sub-Hall numbers, but all things considered he's only conquered the hearts of 1/10 of the major league cities. Verdict: Out Go back to the stat used in conjunction with Tom Glavine: No pitcher in the modern era has ever recorded four 20-win seasons and not gotten into the Hall of Fame. Schilling, so far, has three and this season he's on pace to go 20-5.
Mike Mussina Mussina has had the misfortune of constantly being the second or third best pitcher in the American League, typically behind either Clemens or Johnson. Nine times he has been in the top 10 in ERA and eight times he's been in the top 10 in wins. His career winning percentage of .642 is higher than Hall of Famer Jim Palmer's, but at only 232 wins, he is short of Palmer by 36 wins. The bottom line with Moose is that although he was very good for a long time, he never had a stretch where he was the dominant pitcher in the league--he never won 20 games in a season or a Cy Young (although he placed in the top 6 eight times). Verdict: Out Unlike some of his contemporaries, Moose is pitching better than ever this year. It would only take averaging 15 wins per season until the age of 40 for him to reach 300, so these next few years are critical to his Hall chances.
Mariano Rivera Although there are currently only four closers in the Hall of Fame, this is bound to change rapidly, just as the game itself has changed. And what better pitcher to revolutionize this trend than Mariano Rivera. Rivera currently ranks 5th all-time in saves with 392. He is currently working on his 11th consecutive season with an ERA under 3.00 (an accomplishment unmatched by any other modern-era pitcher). His postseason numbers alone might be enough to get him into the hall of fame: 34 saves and a 0.81 ERA. Verdict: In Rivera might not end his career at the top of the all-time saves list or ever win a Cy Young (how he didn't win it in '05 is beyond me), but in my opinion he is the greatest relief pitcher of all-time.
Trevor Hoffman Hoffman, on the other hand, should be the career leader in saves by the time he retires. Currently, he only trails Lee Smith by 26. And more than his sheer number of saves, is the percentage of his opportunities in which he is successful. When Hell's Bells starts blasting over the loudspeaker, the game is over. Hoffman has converted 90% of save opportunities over his career. Compare that to Rivera at 88%. Hoffman's 1998 season is one of the great single-season performances ever by a relief pitcher, when he saved 53 of 54 chances with a 1.48 ERA. Verdict: In I just hope they play Hell's Bells as his name is announced to go up to the podium for his acceptance speech.
Pedro Martinez At a glance, Pedro's numbers look quite a bit like Schilling's. Pedro has 2 more wins (203), and a similar amount of strikeouts (2,963). However, Pedro also has the hardware to back him up when his stats appear to be lacking. He has a career winning percentage around .700 (3rd all-time). He has five ERA titles, and his career mark of 2.73 is lowest among active starters. He's won three Cy Young awards and in 1999 he came in 2nd place in MVP voting, when he went 23-4 with an ERA of 2.07 and 313 strikeouts. Verdict: In Vote for Pedro, he'll make your wildest dreams come true.
The next generation of Hall of Fame candidate pitchers and early predictions:
Eric Gagne (In); Kerry Wood (Out); Mark Prior (Out); Mark Mulder (In); Tim Hudson (In); Barry Zito (Out); Johann Santana (In); Bartolo Colon (In); Roy Halladay (Out); Josh Beckett (In); Roy Oswalt (In); Andy Pettite (In); Billy Wagner (Out).
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