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The tender state of `tenders

By newfoot, Section NHL
Posted on Sun May 07 2006 at 2:05 AM EST
More on: (all tags)

NHL pundits have traditionally relied on the old adage that the key to winning the Stanley Cup is solid goaltending.  "Build the Cup winner from the goalie out" is commonly heard as color commentary.  Well, this first year of the "new NHL" may put that generally accepted assertion to the test.

To state the obvious, NO goaltender wants to have more goals scored.  Each time the twine is rippled, a goaltender runs through a mental process that either builds or erodes their confidence.  

"Was that one my fault?"  
"What could I have done differently?"
"Was it stoppable?"
"Focus on playing my game."
"Shake it off."  

Goaltenders are a special breed and whatever mental tricks and techniques they use to get back up after a goal is scored depends on the individual.  Suffice to say that their success is critically linked to their self-confidence which is in some part based on their ability to stop their nemesis - goals.

The mental state of a goaltender is critical to their confidence - that fragile thing upon which great goaltending is based.  More goals erode confidence.  So, the rule changes that enable more goal scoring in the NHL may shake the foundations of how to build a Stanley Cup Champion.

It is no secret that experience and confidence are linked.  

If we examine this year's NHL playoffs, we see that there are two vintages of goaltender.

The 2006 NHL playoffs are rapidly becoming a potential showcase for young up-and-coming goaltenders.  Buffalo's Ryan Miller (3 yrs), Ottawa's Ray Emery (3 yrs), Anaheim's Ilya Bryzgalov (3 yrs), Carolina's Cam Ward (rookie) and even San Jose's Vesa Toskala (4 yrs) are among the many formerly unfamiliar names that are gaining notoriety as the playoffs progress.  In the first round we also saw Montreal's Cristobal Huet (3 yrs) and New York Rangers' Henrik Lundqvist (rookie).  Five remaining - two gone.

On the other hand, New Jersey's Martin Brodeur (14 yrs), Edmonton's Dwayne Roloson (8 yrs), Colorado's Jose Theodore (9 yrs) and Anaheim's JS Giguere (8 yrs) are all experienced goaltenders who made it through the first round.  We also had some "well-knowns" who are out after the first round: Tampa Bay's Sean Burke (18 yrs) and John Grahame (7 yrs), Dallas' Marty Turco (5 yrs), Philadelphia's Robert Esche (7 yrs) and Detroit's Manny Legace (7 yrs).  Four remain - five gone.

So far, it looks as if the younger goaltenders are faring better than more experienced goalies.

A few years ago, we had an example of a young puck-stopper that went deep into the playoffs in Jean-Sebastien Giguere.  When JS and the Mighty Ducks made a valiant run in 2003 they fell barely short in the finals.  At the time, Giguere had only 4 years experience in the NHL.  In the final, the winning Devil's were backstopped by Marty Brodeur.  Brodeur is one of the best of all time and has had no shortage of playoff experience.

In 2004, the last time the Cup was warred over, the Flames' Miikka Kiprusoff (at the time 4 yrs experience) was a relatively new name.  He played off against a more familiar name, Nikolai Khabibulin (at the time 9 yrs experience).  When the grinding Flames ran into the Lightning's `Bulin Wall, his experience won out.

So, good goaltending is essential in the playoffs, but experienced, good goaltending trumps just being good and gives a team a leg up to drink from Lord Stanley's Cup.  

To start the second round we have witnessed the 7-6 overtime win of Buffalo (Miller) over Ottawa (Emery); the 6-0 trouncing of the Devils (Brodeur) by the Hurricanes; and, the lacklustre Avalanche (Theodore) 3-0 loss to Anaheim.  Three games: 22 goals.  This speaks volumes.  Meanwhile Bryzgalov and Ward are flying high after shutouts.

So combined with this apparent changing of the guard in terms of great goaltending, there is a new possible strategy for building a Cup winning team.

Generally, the teams that have made it to round two with the less experienced goaltenders have a strong offensive orientation.  Buffalo, Carolina and Ottawa are highly explosive offensively.  Of the teams remaining in the playoffs, these three have the highest Goals for - Goals against (GF-GA) differential during the regular season.  These are three of the four teams that scored the highest number of regular season goals of all the teams remaining.  

Meanwhile, the teams with the more experienced goaltenders are playing less offence-oriented system.  New Jersey and Edmonton have the lowest GF-GA differentials and had lower regular season GF overall.  

So perhaps another way to build a Cup contender in the New NHL is emerging based on another old sports adage:  "The best defence is a good offence".  

We are still a long way from watching the hoisting of Lord Stanley's silver over the winner's heads and plenty can happen - especially if some experienced goaltender's confidence is solid.  Can you hear me Marty?