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Zito=Overrated?

By knuckleballerMC, Section MLB
Posted on Thu Apr 06 2006 at 8:32 PM EST
More on: (all tags)

By Mark Cooper

In his opening start of 2006, Barry Zito didn't look prepared.  He wasn't following through on his pitches, his control was terrible, and at times he just looked lost on the mound.  The climax of his night was his final pitch, a hanging curve over the center of the plate that reigning AL MVP Alex Rodriguez walloped over the left center fence for a grand slam.  Michael Kay said it best for both the ball and for Zito; "Seee Ya!".  Zito's final stat line provided some gaudy numbers; in 1 1/3 innings pitched, he gave up 7 runs, all earned, on 4 hits, 4 walks, and 1 home run, the grand slam by A-Rod.  Although Zito was out there a long time (59 pitches), it was the shortest outing of his career in terms of innings.  This start brings up the question, is Zito overrated?  There are many people who take him as ace, which he isn't.  He also is mistaken for a Cy Young caliber pitcher because of his 2002 season, where he won the trophy.

Let's do a background check of Barry Zito's career to start this discussion.  In Zito's first 3 seasons, he was brilliant, a 47-17 record with a 3.04 ERA.  His 3rd season was his best, he went 23-5 with a 2.75 ERA in 2002 to take home the Cy, as said previously.  Now let's take a look at his last 3 seasons.  A drastic change is obvious, only a 39-36 record, and a 3.86 ERA.  You can't even blame the record on the team; in Barry's entire career Oakland has been a contender in the AL West.  This means that the drop-off has to do with him.

Looking at a bunch of miscellaneuous stats, the first one to jump out is K/9.  In those first 3 seasons, Zito averaged 7.75 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched.  In his last 3, it has dropped to 6.43 K/9.  Maybe the hitters got used to his famous curve, or maybe he lost something on his pitches.  Taking another look at his game last night could provide some answers.

As said earlier in the article, Zito had what might have been the worst start of his career last night.  Michael Kay, Bobby Murcer, and Ken Singleton provided a reasonable explanation of what Zito was doing wrong, while they called the game on the YES network.  Zito's release point was off on most of his pitches, to explain the bad control.  After a couple of walks, he lost his confidence, which is one of the worst things that can happen to a pitcher.  In at at-bat with Derek Jeter, he threw 4 straight 87 mph fastballs, all for balls.  Zito's explanation is that he was trying to be too fine with his pitch placement and he just kept missing with his fastball.  However, another way to look at it is Zito is susceptible to these outings.

Taking a more in-depth look at the past seasons of Barry Zito, he seems to have these tough starts a few times a season.  Usually, at least one of these will be in April.  Let's look at how 2005 went.  His 2nd start of the season was against Tampa Bay.  Tampa dropped an atomic bomb on him, he allowed 8 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings.  However, he proved he can bounce back the next game, allowing just 2 runs over 8 innings against the Angels.  In a game later last season, the Yankees tagged him for 6 runs in 3 1/3 innings.  He was able to win his next start.  He also allowed 5 runs over 6 innings to cleveland in a loss, but threw 6 1/3 shutout innings against Minnesota next start.  

Maybe that could also be the best explanation for Zito's rough start.  When he is going really good, he is a very good starter.  When he gets into trouble early, he tends to snowball into a terrible outing.  His changeup was hanging every time against the Yankees, and his slider was all over. This is the reason Zito can't be an ace.  Aces can make adjustments during the game, and Zito has never done that.  So to the people that consider Zito a front of the rotation starter, he is overrated, but he makes a solid #3 starter.  Zito doesn't get fazed by the media either, he has never had cable or satelite television, and has never seen SportsCenter.