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By sign arenas, Section NFL
If you're a football fan right about now, you've probably grown so delirious waiting for the NFL to come back you've convinced yourself that your team has a shot. Never mind all those faults you couldn't help but notice as last season wore on; those have slowly been pushed out the back of your head, replaced with reasons why your team has "it" this year. Well, chances are, your team doesn't have "it". In fact, your team has only a 1-in-32 shot of having "it", and that's if you give the Niners the same odds as the Patriots.
NFC West 1) Seahawks: "Seriously, what the hell is a Seahawk?" Webster's defines a seahawk as: (noun) 1. an imaginary, flightless bird native to the imaginations of Pacific Northwest residents; 2. a member of an overrated football team that can't win a big game to save its life. Sounds about right to me. For some reason, people keep taking the Seahawks seriously as a playoff contender, despite the fact that they've done nothing to earn such a reputation. They're great when it comes to beating up on the 49ers and Cardinals, but Seattle hasn't won a playoff game since 1984 (think about where you were in 1984) and has shown an impressive ability to trip over themselves in big moments. The excuse for the Seahawks this year is that people are counting them out, and this team plays much better when expectations are low. This is the team people are picking as contenders? A team that seizes up any time someone tells them they're good? Seattle will win the NFC West, but they're one-and-done again in the playoffs. 2) Rams: "Haven't we seen this before?" The Rams are stacked on offense and can't play defense. Mike Martz continues to draft players on offense at the expense of his defense, and expects that it will all just work itself out. This is getting old. A little stale, even. There's no reason to think that the Rams will fare any better in 2005 than they did last year, or the year before, or the year before that, and so on. The Kurt & Brenda Warner Magic is gone, and it's never coming back. The Rams offense can't compensate for this defense anymore, no matter how great a schemer Martz may be. It's too bad, too, because Torry Holt is still one of the most exciting players in the league. Unfortunately, he'll be relegated to the regular season this year. 3) Cardinals: "Can they take advantage of their surroundings?" Much like the NL West in baseball, the NFC West is the most underwhelming division you'll see this year, one which will be won by default. The Seahawks and Rams have been the "class" of the division for a while now, and the Cardinals have been the team that helped pad their win totals. But now, the Cardinals are starting to put together a team, and there's talk that the Cardinals might be a sleeper in the race for the division championship. That's a bit premature, but the Cards certainly have everything they need to compete. They have a shaky QB, terrific receivers, a good young running back, and a suspect defense, all of which puts them in the same boat with Seattle and St. Louis. The division may come down to a QB challenge between Matt Hasselbeck, Marc Bulger, and Kurt Warner, which promises to be a race of epic proportions. If the 49ers could somehow trade for Kerry Collins, defensive backs throughout the division might pull a muscle running to re-negotiate their contracts. 4) 49ers: "Who's coming out in the draft this year?" The only real question facing the 49ers is which collegiate players will be able to help them in 2006. Even in the parity-driven NFL, San Francisco is one of the few teams that has absolutely no shot at competing this season. It's easy to blame owner John York for the Niners' recent suckitude, but he's actually done a pretty good job of imploding a team that had no shot at winning. The Jeff Garcia-Terrell Owens-Garrison Hearst squad had reached its peak, and rather than try to squeeze a few extra 9-7 or 8-8 seasons out of that group, York pulled the plug and went into his rebuilding bomb shelter. His main motivation may have been financial, but it was actually a pretty shrewd evaluation of his team, and it showed guts that most owners lack. It's the moves that have followed the 2003 nuclear treatment that have placed the once-proud 49ers in the NFL's wasteland. The Dennis Erickson hire, suspect drafting, and an astonishingly inept PR department have managed to turn the Niners into just another team, even among their most die-hard fans. Hiring Mike Nolan as coach and selecting Alex Smith as the quarterback of the future were great moves, but this team needs 2 more solid drafts before it can regain its footing. NFC Central 1) Vikings: "How about you and your friends against me and the Revolution?" Daunte Culpepper has to practically be begging teams to come to Minnesota this year, because most of them don't know what's going to hit them. Ever since the Vikings landed in North America, they've been notoriously weak on defense. Leif Eriksson's crew could pillage with the best of them, but they were poor at defending their home turf. The Minnesota Vikings followed suit, always ranking near the top of the league in offense and piling up regular-season wins like they were going out of style, only to collapse in the playoffs because they couldn't stop anyone from scoring. But the Vikings have finally learned their lesson, and they've assembled one of the best defenses in the league. Because most of the players are new, it will take a little while before they start playing well together, but by Week 9 or 10, the Vikes should be rolling. Maybe the most dangerous team in the league come playoff-time. 2) Lions: "Can this season still be a success if they miss the playoffs?" Yes, it can. Yes, it will. And yes, they will. Joey Harrington enters his fourth season as the Lions starting quarterback this year, though it feels like it's been a lot longer than that. Detroit fans have been aching for a good team for what seems like forever (the Lions haven't won a playoff game since 1992), which has resulted in too much pressure being placed on Harrington's shoulders too soon. But Joey finally has some talent to play with, and this should be the year when Detroit's offense finally begins to click. Roy Williams, Mike Williams, Charles Rogers, and Kevin Jones are the best group of young skill players in the NFL, which should prevent Harrington from feeling like he has to do everything. If the offense can get rolling, this season will be a success for the Lions. But drafting so many offensive players in the early rounds has created a sieve on the defensive side of the ball, meaning the people of Detroit will have to wait another year before they get to watch their team in a postseason game. 3) Packers: "Why should we care?" The Packers aren't quite good enough to make the playoffs, and they aren't quite bad enough to get a top draft pick. This is the worst kind of season for sports fans, because there's really nothing to hope for. The only reason to watch the Pack this season is to see Brett Favre, if only to watch one of the all-time great QB's before his skills turn to dust. This isn't Jerry Rice struggling to get open for the Seahawks; Favre's not what he used to be, but he can still make great plays, and he makes every game interesting. He's worth watching only because there aren't many sure Hall of Famers left in the NFL, and once he's gone, you'll miss him. 4) Bears: "Has a team's defense ever outscored its offense for an entire season?" We may see it happen in Chicago. The Bears offense was hideous even before Rex Grossman went down with a broken ankle; now, it's just sickly. Cedric Benson decided to hold out and lost his job to Thomas Jones (there's something you don't want on your resume), and Muhsin Muhammed needs a good QB to succeed, which means that Chicago's defense will also double as its offense in 2005. For Bears fans, this may not be as bad as it seems; after all, it was only a few years ago that Brian Urlacher was Brian URRRRR-lacher, running around, making plays, saving babies, slaying dragons, and dating socialites. He's still a great player, and the Bears have some good players around him on D. But if you're looking for the Bears to score touchdowns, it may be time to pop that Sweetness tape back in the VCR. NFC South 1) Panthers: "What size rings do they wear?" What's not to like? The Panthers return nearly their entire Super Bowl team from 2003, they have a great coach, a great defense, a great running game, and they've got playmakers everywhere (Peppers, Morgan, Smith). They have depth where they need it most (running back, defensive line, defensive backfield), and they've come as close to a championship as you can get. This year, the trophy doesn't escape them. That defense is just too good and too fast, and the offense can win through the air or on the ground There's no defensive player in the NFL better than Julius Peppers right now, and watching him chase Michael Vick around the field twice a year is one of the best parts of the season. 2) Falcons* (* = Wild Card): "Why aren't all their games on national TV?" This one I don't have an answer for. Michael Vick is the single most exciting player in professional sports, and every NFL fan wants to watch him play. He hasn't even learned how to play his position yet, and he's already one of the most dangerous players in football. There's a nervous energy that comes with watching Vick drop back to pass, because you don't know what he's going to do, but you know there's a chance it'll be something you've never seen before. On a scale of enjoyment, it's below motor-boating, but slightly ahead of listening to Marky Mark's angel dust stories on Inside the Actor's Studio. Just a sight to behold. 3) Buccaneers: "Where did they go?" Used to be, the Bucs were good for 2 things: great defense and highlight reel tackles. The defense isn't great anymore, though a lot of the players you associate with Tampa's D are still around (Rice, Brooks, Barber). This team is becoming centered around offense now, which you knew would happen as soon as they hired Jon Gruden. It took a few years to transition the team's focus, but Michael Clayton and Cadillac Williams lead this team now, which is great in the long-term but not so great this season. The Falcons are just a bit better than the Bucs, though Tampa Bay may be only one Vick injury away from jumping into second place. 4) Saints: "Can they stay sane?" Imagine this for a second: you have to go on a weeklong business trip, during which your entire home city is destroyed. You don't know for sure whether your friends and family are OK, and not only are you uncertain whether you have anything resembling a home to come back to, you don't know if there will be an alligator waiting for you in the living room upon your return. Not to mention the fact that your entire city has turned into a real-life version of "Grand Theft Auto". You'd handle that pretty well, right? Now imagine going on another business trip the following week, but instead of filling out TPS reports and picking out cornflower blue PowerPoint graphics, you have to play football against 300-pound men who'd like nothing more than to catch you worrying about what's going on back home. Oh yeah, you also have to start preparing for the possibility of 16 road games this year, because your stadium might be torn down before the season is even over. I'm sure the Saints are anxious to actually start playing football, if only to get Katrina off their minds for a few hours, but it's tough to see how they can focus on football right now. I'll say this, though: the Saints are everybody's second-favorite team in 2005. NFC East 1) Eagles: "What's their backup plan?" Trust me, they'll need one. The Eagles can't win the Super Bowl with T.O., and they can't win the Super Bowl without T.O. There's no appearing in the Big Game if Owens causes problems for his team (which he always does), and they can't get there if Owens gets hurt or decides to sit out. Unfortunately, he's the only one who can take Philly's offense where it needs to go. Somehow, the Eagles have to figure out a way to wean themselves off of Terrell Owens, before he brings the entire season down with him. At this point, Owens is more interested in being a celebrity than a football player (who works out in their driveway?), even hiring Drew Rosenhaus to act as his Jimmy "Mouth of the South" Hart. Things have gotten so bad recently that every sports highlight show in America must now report something about Owens in the first 20 minutes of air time, sort of like how Morgan Freeman or Samuel L. Jackson have to appear in every single movie released in theaters. Philly's best option may be just to let Owens sit out the entire regular season, come back for the playoffs, and part ways after the Super Bowl. 2) Cowboys*: "Who is Julius Jones?" Is the Cowboys' 2nd-year running back simply a statistical freak who had a good half-season to finish the 2004 campaign, or is he the full-time workhorse Bill Parcells needs him to be? Only time will tell, but it's likely that Jones is the latter, a rock of a back who can withstand the punishment that comes with being an every-down runner. It usually takes Parcells a few years to construct a team in his image, and he finally has has his squad in place now, a team with a solid running game and punishing D. This group isn't quite as good as his old Giants, Patriots, or Jets teams, but his competition isn't as good, either. Depending on how strong Big D's defense proves to be, the Cowboys could be one of the toughest teams in the NFC to knock out of the playoffs. And don't forget: (281) 330-8004, hit Julius Jones up on the low, 'cause Julius Jones about to blow. 3) Giants: "Is Eli the brain-dead hick I think he is?" Probably not, but he's also not ready to start in the NFL just yet. Eli's gotten by on his last name so far, but that will only last so long in New York. The papers out there probably already have 4 or 5 stories about Eli's struggles all ready to print, lying in wait for the chance to skewer the young QB as soon as he slips up. He's got enough talent on offense to prevent this season from becoming a complete wash, but the Giants are stuck in neutral for at least another year while they wait for Manning to grow up. 4) Redskins: "Who's the man?" The Redskins are a dog chasing their own tail, with no idea of what kind of team it wants to be. Owner Daniel Snyder wants an exciting, vertical passing team, while coach Joe Gibbs wants a strong, power running team. But Gibbs' approach is in direct conflict with the talents of his running back, Clinton Portis, who's better at using his speed to get outside the tackles. The team also has 3 different quarterbacks (Ramsey, Brunell, Campbell) at 3 different stages of their careers, all of whom could make a case to be the starter. And this entire mess takes the focus away from the defense, which is the best unit on the team and should be receiving most of the attention in Washington. The 'Skins are playing 52-card pickup with their roster right now, and they're stuck in last until they figure out what they want to do. AFC West 1) Chiefs: "Why isn't anyone paying attention to these guys?" The Colts are getting most of the kudos right now for being the offensive juggernaut that finally wised up and improved its defense, thanks to their signing of Corey Simon. But the Chiefs didn't wait until the last minute to upgrade their D like Indy did, adding Kendrell Bell, Patrick Surtain, Derrick Johnson, and Sammy Knight to a defense that ranked among the worst in the league. Other than the rookie Johnson, all 3 newbies have playoff experience and are proven playmakers. Kansas City's offense is still as good as ever, and Larry Johnson's emergence means they don't have to rely entirely on Priest Holmes to get the running game going. This was the 2nd highest scoring offense in the league last season, behind only Indianapolis, and the Chiefs now have a better defense than Indy. Don't be surprised to see the Chiefs snatch postseason home-field away from the Colts. 2) Raiders*: "Are Randy Moss and Lamont Jordan worth a defense?" The Raiders seem to think so. By signing Jordan and trading linebacker Napoleon Harris and the #7 overall pick for Moss, the Silver and Black bastardized their defense in an attempt to build the best offense possible. In other words, Al Davis is still Al Davis. Big Al played "Pimp My Team" again in 2005, a strategy that's brought Warren Sapp and Jerry Rice to Oakland in recent years, and has almost landed Ricky Williams and Deion Sanders. Moss' arrival should mean single coverage and big numbers for Jerry Porter, Ronald Curry, and Doug Gabriel, and should also open up the field for Jordan to run. As long as Kerry Collins doesn't turn the ball over 7 times per game like he did in 2004, the Raiders should be able to ride their offense to a playoff spot. As the Rams, Colts, and Chiefs of recent years have shown, you usually can't get far in the playoffs without some semblance of balance, but that's missing the bigger story: the Raiders went from a 5-win team to a 10-win team in one offseason, and that's a gamble worth taking. 3) Chargers: "Was it all a dream?" Strange things were afoot last season in the Whale's Vagina, and they've yet to be explained. Things like Drew Brees becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Or a tight end who didn't play football in college becoming the best non-Gonzalez player at his position. Or the worst team in football in 2003 going 12-4 and making the playoffs only a year later. The Chargers aren't a significantly worse team than they were last year, outside of losing Doug Flutie, but then again, they aren't that much better on paper than they were 2 years ago. The real Chargers are somewhere in between, an 8-8 or 9-7 team disguised as an actual contender, ready to fall back to the pack where they belong. 4) Broncos: "What's changed?" I really have nothing to say about the Broncos. They still have a quarterback in Jake Plummer who makes too many stupid mistakes, they still have a defense that can't make stops when they need them, and they still have a coach who's been unable to pick up the pieces of this franchise since losing John Elway and Terrell Davis. The Broncos can still churn out big-time rushers or quick linebackers, but they can never put together a team solid enough to make a run. So they get last place in the AFC West, just for their inability to improve while every team in their division has made itself better. AFC Central 1) Steelers: "Did they miss their chance?" The Steelers had a dream season in 2004, propelled by the success of their rookie quarterback and the resurgence of their power running game. They put up an insane 15-1 record and secured home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, only to let the Patriots come in and pee on their rug. The Steelers need to come out this year and prove that this aggression will not stand, but it's not going to be easy. Big Bennie Roethlisberger is bound to struggle a bit in his second year as a starting QB, both of the team's running backs are already hurt, and there's no proven second receiver anymore. Which raises the question: did the Steelers miss their shot last year? Yeah, they did. Runs like that don't come along often, and when they do, you don't let someone come in to your house and pee on your f*cking rug. That rug really tied the room together, did it not? 2) Bengals: "Who's the guy in the orange shoes?" That's Chad Johnson, the best receiver in the NFL that most people don't know about. The lack of attention paid to Johnson certainly isn't for his lack of trying, from his gold teeth to the bright orange shoes to the touchdown celebrations that land him in trouble with his coach. Johnson 's entering his 5th season, and he's increased his number of receptions every year he's been in the league. With Carson Palmer throwing him the ball, and a solid running back and second receiver to complement him, Johnson should be ready for a breakout season. It may be a little hard to "break out" when you put up 1274 yards with 9 TD's last year, but Chad will find a way. And then he'll find a way to tell us about it. 3) Ravens: "How will Jamal Lewis respond to his offseason troubles?" Outside of Martha Stewart and Tony Yayo, no celebrity's release from prison was more anticipated than that of Jamal Lewis, running back for the Baltimore Ravens. Lewis was sentenced to four months in prison during the offseason for attempting to set up a deal for 5 kilos of cocaine for a friend. While this may be a slow night for Lindsay Lohan, it's a big deal in the NFL, and Lewis' play suffered last season as a result of the pending charges. Baltimore's offense relies almost exclusively on the running game, as quarterback Kyle Boller is still living the life of a passer who knows he's not getting paid by the completion. 4) Browns: "Is there a reset button?" Seriously, where is the hope for Browns fans? Romeo Crennel? He's a defensive mastermind, but you can't coach what you don't have. Braylon Edwards? Potentially a great receiver, but he's still relying on Trent Dilfer to throw him passes- and Dilfer is no longer the All-Pro superstar he was back when he was winning Super Bowls. Kellen Winslow? No one likes to place too much emphasis on brains in this league, but there has to be something there in order to become a successful player. What in the world happened to Cleveland? Was it always this bad? The league needs to get a great running back in this city before they burn the stadium down. AFC South 1) Colts: "Is this finally their year?" Well, if they have a year, this is it. Edgerrin James is playing for a contract, Marvin Harrison is getting up there in age, and you can only keep a great team together for so long. Picking up Corey Simon was big for the Horseshoes, but their defense still isn't good enough to win on the road. If they can just avoid playing on the road in cold weather during the playoffs, they'll be fine. Which is another way of saying, no, this probably isn't their year. 2) Jaguars: "Can Byron Leftwich lead this team?" The Jags' third-year QB has proven that he can be good, but not great. The great's coming, though, even if it is a year or two away. Anyone who plays a championship game on a broken leg and has to be carried around the field by his teammates is someone who can take control of a team. If the Jaguars can sneak into the playoffs, they're taking somebody out with them. 3) Texans: "Is David Carr still alive?" It's not often that a QB taken #1 overall in the draft goes relatively unnoticed. But that's the situation David Carr finds himself in, now that Houston has become a city of superstars, with Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady, Roger Clemens, and Paul Wall all calling H-Town home. The problem is, Carr could use a little more attention, especially from his own team. The Texans passer was sacked 49 times last year, most in the NFL, though it was a far cry from the seventy-six sacks he suffered in 2002 as a rookie. Last year, Carr was so out of sorts that he showed up with a slicked-back Euro haircut, which introduced the term "metrosexual" to the city of Houston for the first time. Carr's back to normal this year, but that may not last long. If Houston can't find better ways to protect their investment this season, Carr's career may be over before it ever really begins. 4) Titans: "Is Billy Volek the real deal?" Unfortunately, the Titans may need him to be. QB Steve McNair is essentially the NFL's version of Frankenstein at this point, and the superglue and duct tape holding him together won't last forever. Volek put up good numbers in McNair's stead last season, even managing to make Drew Bennett look like a #1 receiver. Neither Volek nor Bennett are as good as they played last season, but with Norm Chow now calling the plays, they won't need to be. Travis Henry is the new back up to Chris Brown, so the running game should be good enough to take pressure off whomever happens to be under center for Tennessee. All the Titans need is for Volek to become a better backup than Neil O'Donnell was (before he left to play the dad on "The OC"). AFC East 1) Jets: "Did we forget anything?" A few months after the 2004 season ended, I was talking to a buddy of mine who's a diehard Jets fan, and told him the J-E-T-S needed four things: a playmaker in the secondary, a new kicker, a backup running back, and a tight end. Then New York went out and picked up Ty Law, Mike Nugent, Derrick Blaylock, and Doug Jolley, addressing each of the 4 needs. Add it all up, and the Jets are the best team in the AFC. Chad Pennington's shoulder injury is healed, which means he should no longer throw like Johnny Damon. And he has Laveranues Coles to look to again, which means the Jets actually have a #1 receiver who knows how to get open. The defense has playmakers at every level of the field (Abraham, Vilma, Law), and the fans in New York can finally stop searching for "Jets Kicker Home Address" on Google. Is there anything they forgot? 2) Patriots*: "Just how smart is Bill Belicheck?" Yer' about to find out. The Patriots have won 3 of the last 4 Super Bowls, but they've lost their offensive and defensive coordinators, an All-Pro corner and 2 starting linebackers, one of whom happened to be the heart of their defense. Brady, Dillon, and those 8,000 no-name receivers are all back on offense, and the Pats shouldn't have any problems scoring points. The biggest questions come on D, where we'll find out just how well New England deals with losing Romeo Crennel and Tedy Bruschi. I'm breaking my own rule this year and I'm picking a team other than New England to win the Super Bowl, even though I'll probably regret it on Super Bowl Sunday. I just think there's too many things going against them this season, and there's too many competitors who can play with them. If the Patriots manage to win it all this year, just go ahead and name Belicheck "God of All Things Football", and start delivering trophies to his house until he retires. 3) Bills: "How easy is it to relocate?" There's nothing wrong with Buffalo, per se. In fact, the fans are great, and the city provides great football weather. But the Bills are stuck in what is perennially the toughest division in football, and usually end up the bridesmaid. This year is no exception, as Willis McGahee is ready for his ascension to the top tier of NFL running backs, and the defense is stacked. Buffalo's D actually proved to be the highlight of my fantasy draft, as I was able to pick them up in the 8th round of a 14-team draft, when my only remaining options were Dexter Carter, Dexter Manley, and Dexatrim. In most divisions in the NFL, the Williams would be good enough to win 10-11 games and make it to the playoffs. But playing a quarter of your games against the Jets and Patriots tends to put a damper on any postseason plans. 4) Dolphins: "What position does Nick Saban play?" The bad news for Miami is that their biggest offseason acquisition can't score and can't tackle, which guarantees them another top-10 draft pick. The good news is that their new coach will prove to be more important than any player they could have picked up. There's some talent to work with here, from Chris Chambers to Ronnie Brown to a defense that's still capable of being one of the league's best. But the Fins have 3 quarterbacks who should be selling insurance, and you can only run the ball so many times when your top 2 running backs are a rookie and a pothead. Looks like Ray Finkel's going to be kicking a lot of field goals this year.
Super Bowl Pick: Panthers 27, Jets 17 Story writing contestLog in or create an account to vote for this story!
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