I wrote this quickly and I think at times I started to confuse my power ratings and my polls so it probably led to confusion.
I am not counting almost winning as winning. I look at the truth of the team. Wisconsin was #18 at that point BECAUSE they were 9-0. If they were 7-2, they'd be #30 or something. I gave them extra benefits for winning. But they were a horrible team. The Big Ten as a whole, all 11 teams included, are average or terrible. Wisconsin is borderline (i.e. lucky).
If Wake was 8-1 instead of 4-5 at this point, the'd be #10 or something. I do take into effect winning.
But to argue your 0-12 point (which I discussed with someone before you posted this; i missed this comment until now).
If a team is 0-12, losing all games by 1-point to 12 of the best teams in the country, I'd rate them ahead of a 12-0 team that won their 12 games over 1-AA opponents or other lousy teams (i.e. Lousiana-Monroe) by 1 point. The polls, on the other hand, would rate this crappy team in the Top 25 because they are 12-0.
Winning and losing does matter, but it is overrated by the pollsters. If Wisconsin won those final 2 games, I would have had NO choice but to move them up a lot. However, I thought that up to that point, despite being 9-0, they had failed to prove themselves and, in fact, had done more to prove that they were average than to prove that they were good.
Now, 6 years ago we had a similar situation to what is happening this year. #1 was Tennessee (11-0), #2 was Kansas State (11-0), and #3 was UCLA (10-0). However, UCLA lost 49-45 to the resurgent Miami Hurricanes and Kansas State lost in overtime(?) to Texas A&M in the Big XII championship game, while Tennessee managed to win a tough one from upstart Mississippi State in the SEC championship game.
Can we have a repeat?
#1 is USC (11-0), #2 is Oklahoma (11-0), and #3 is Auburn (11-0). USC plays long-time rival UCLA (6-4), Oklahoma plays in the Big XII championship game against lousy Colorado (7-4), and Auburn plays in the SEC title game against lucky Tennessee (9-2). They probably will all win, but hopefully Oklahoma loses so that Auburn gets their deserved spot in the National Title Game. I don't care that they played less of a nobody schedule than Oklahoma. Oklahoma played in a shitier conference. The SEC is a much better conference than the Big XII. The North Division is horrible, as is Baylor. Texas Tech eeked out a non-defeat against SMU. Texas A&M matured throughout the year, but was a hot and cold team. Oklahoma State fell apart when the meat of their schedule arrived. That leaves 2 arguably good teams. The SEC had Auburn and Georgia who both were proven winners, even though Georgia had two slip-ups. Florida played tough in every game and should have arguably won every game but the Georgia game. Georgia was hands-down better. Florida beat a BCS-possible Florida State team on the road. Georgia beat Georgia Tech. Tennessee is no slouch, but Florida and Georgia were both better. LSU was a quality opponent as well. Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State all sucked. Ole Miss was horrible as well. Arkansas nearly beat Texas, and they were misserable. Texas is unquestionably the second best team in the Big XII. Victory: Auburn. It isn't even close, on paper or statistically. Oklahoma should be #3.
-----------------------------
Sportscolumn.com's Resident Asshole
[ Parent ]
