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Into the Great Wide Open – 2010 AFC Preview

By Ryan McGowan

The AFC this year is quirky—so many teams, so few clear-cut favorites.  There isn’t even a clear-cut worst team in the conference, as the Raiders shouldn’t be quite as horrid as past years.  In fact, the conference title is wide open, pretty much for whichever team can conceal its flaws long enough to grab it.

Let’s get right to it.

16. Cleveland Browns – LAST YEAR: 5-11, 4th AFC NORTH, MISSED PLAYOFFS.

Someone has to be last.  As bad as the Browns were last year, how are they going to be any better this year?  Seriously, this is a team that decided that it was time to give up on Brady Quinn (after the Mangenie in a Bottle traded what eventually became Mark Sanchez to the J-E-T-S) and Mike Holmgren thinks the answer is Jake Delhomme.  Delhomme was so bad last year that the Panthers improved a hundred-fold after he was benched.   I officially feel really bad for Cleveland fans.

PREDICTION: 4-12, 4th AFC NORTH.

15. Buffalo Bills – LAST YEAR: 6-10, 4th AFC EAST, MISSED PLAYOFFS.

It has gotten so bad in Buffalo that kids entering sixth grade this fall have never seen a Bills playoff team in their lifetime.  The last time the Bills were in the playoffs, Sisqo was the next big thing in hip-hop and Varsity Blues was making adolescent boys salivate over the whipped cream in their parents’ fridges.  Chan Gailey’s hiring should help slightly, but the Bills’ roster is so lackluster and uninspiring, it’s beginning to make me wonder whether management is trying to pull a Major League, intentionally making the team so bad that they can bolt for Toronto or Los Angeles as soon as the ageless Ralph Wilson dies.  As if it weren’t bad enough to live in western New York.  Something must be in the water in Lake Erie.

PREDICTION: 5-11, 4th AFC EAST.

14. Oakland Raiders – LAST YEAR: 5-11, 3rd AFC WEST, MISSED PLAYOFFS.

The Raiders have lost seven consecutive home openers, so they’re not great at getting off to a good start.  That’s a bit of an understatement, since they’re not great at anything except inspiring their rabid fan base—and, of course, by “rabid” I mean actually has rabies.  It’s a good thing Jason Campbell has a ridiculously hot girlfriend, but I hope she will still love him with the 1,200 body bruises he should sustain this year playing behind that offensive line.  I’ll give Oakland some credit though; at least they kept the incredibly level-headed and not-physically-abusive-at-all Tom Cable on as head coach, to keep some stability in the organization.  It’s refreshing to see a team that actually practices what it preaches.

PREDICTION: 6-10, 4th AFC WEST.

13. Kansas City Chiefs – LAST YEAR: 4-12, 4th AFC WEST, MISSED PLAYOFFS.

This should be a big year for Patriots West, who now feature Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel on Todd Haley’s staff, as well as former Pats player personnel director Scott Pioli as GM.  Unfortunately, Weis won’t be dialing up offensive formations for Tom Brady, but for Matt Cassell—and if Cassell goes down, the job falls to Brodie Croyle.  So little margin of error here, but I think with another year under their belts, the Chiefs could surprise a few people.

PREDICTION: 6-10, 3rd AFC WEST.

12. Jacksonville Jaguars – LAST YEAR: 7-9, 4th AFC SOUTH, MISSED PLAYOFFS.

I wouldn’t have expected it out of a Jack Del Rio team, but the Jaguars have become really bland.  This used to be one of the more exciting teams in football, a team that was never quite at the top of the pack but always had enough to keep everyone on their toes.  Now, they’re a team without any kind of identity.  Quick—name three Jaguars.  And no, Byron Leftwich, Mark Brunell, and Fred Taylor are not acceptable answers.

PREDICTION: 6-10, 4th AFC SOUTH.

11. Miami Dolphins – LAST YEAR: 7-9, 3rd AFC EAST, MISSED PLAYOFFS.

A lot of people are saying that the Dolphins might be a playoff team again, but I’m not seeing it.  When Tony Sparano brought in the Wildcat in 2008, it was new, innovative, and impossible to defend, at least for a while.  (Even though it’s a formation that harkens back to the days of the single-wing attack in the 1940’s.)  Now the Wildcat is stale, and the Dolphins’ lack of an above-average drop-back passer will hurt them in a division with both Tom Brady and Mark Sanchez.  Chad Henne is good, but he’s not good enough to carry the team to the playoffs.  A great Dolphins-related stat is that a different quarterback has led the team in passing yards for seven consecutive years.  Bonus points if you can name all seven.

PREDICTION: 7-9, 3rd AFC EAST.

10. Cincinnati Bengals – LAST YEAR: 10-6, 1st AFC NORTH, LOST 1st ROUND OF PLAYOFFS.

I’ve always liked Marvin Lewis back to his days with the Ravens as the only likeable thing about that franchise at the turn of the century, but I am starting to fear that the Bengals have become more of a prop for their players’ media projects than an actual football team.  It’s a shame that management has surrounded Carson Palmer with such airheads during the prime years of his career, and the karma fallout from the back-to-back season-ending drubbings at the hands of the Jets might sink this team this year.   If a team’s character is defined by how it plays when the adversity is at the highest, then the Bengals put their tails between their legs and let the overachieving Jets mop the floor with them.  It was an embarrassment of the highest order, and I don’t see this franchise recovering.  In fact, it seems to be going in the opposite direction.

PREDICTION: 8-8, 3rd AFC NORTH.

9. Pittsburgh Steelers – LAST YEAR: 9-7, 3rd AFC NORTH, MISSED PLAYOFFS.

When will Steelers fans demand the team get rid of Ben Roethlisberger?  His youthful transgressions were somewhat cute and endearing before they cost him a multi-game suspension to start the season.  It’s amazing that only four Steelers offensive players from the Super Bowl win over the Cardinals will be starting in Week 1.  You can’t have that much roster turmoil that fast, but in the meantime we get to see Charlie Batch or Byron Leftwich run the team for a few weeks.   Meanwhile Troy Polamalu is taking out a million dollar insurance policy on his hair.  When did the Steelers become the Bengals, 300 miles east?

PREDICTION: 8-8, 2nd AFC NORTH.

8. Denver Broncos – LAST YEAR: 8-8, 2nd AFC WEST, MISSED PLAYOFFS.

Losing Elvis Dumervil for the season will hurt, as will the constant chatter in Denver to play Tim Tebow, which will probably go down as one of the most idiotic draft picks in the history of the league.  What the Broncos have going for them, though, is that the three teams behind them in the rankings all have more extensive flaws, be they character flaws or personnel issues.  We’ll see how Josh McDaniels’ decision to abandon the zone-blocking rushing attack in favor of a drive-blocking approach will play out, but with another year under his belt as a head coach, the Belichick protégé should be able to manufacture some wins somehow.

PREDICTION: 9-7, 2nd AFC WEST.

7. Tennessee Titans – LAST YEAR: 8-8, 3rd AFC SOUTH, MISSED PLAYOFFS.

Last year’s Titans season was this close to being the most miraculous comeback in NFL history, but fell a bit short down the stretch.  Still, after that infamous October snow-capped drubbing in New England, for the Titans to finish .500 was a major victory.  With Vince Young established as the starter, and with Chris Johnson carrying fantasy teams everywhere, the Titans will be really close to the playoffs.  It’s going to be a battle royale between them, the Texans, and the Colts—unfortunately, Tennessee will pull a 2002 Patriots and lose a three-way tie for a playoff spot.  The defense needs to tighten up some more before they can get back to their elite status.

PREDICTION: 10-6, 3rd AFC SOUTH.

6. Houston Texans – LAST YEAR: 9-7, 2nd AFC SOUTH, MISSED PLAYOFFS.

If the Texans could somehow learn how to beat the Colts, they might have a shot to win some playoff games.  As it is, they have never been to the dance, but their offense is damn sharp.  Last year the Texans, believe it or not, had the #1 passing attack in football, and they were beating the Colts 17-0 before choking it away.  A little bit more of a rushing attack would be nice (ranked 30th in the league last year).  This might be the year, though, that they can beat the Colts at least once and make a play for the division, but they will come up short on tiebreakers for the title.

PREDICTION: 10-6, 2nd AFC SOUTH.

5. Indianapolis Colts – LAST YEAR: 14-2, 1st AFC SOUTH, LOST SUPER BOWL.

I don’t put much stock in preseason football, but still, when you lose 59-24 as the Colts did to the Packers last week, it raises some eyebrows.  Then you read about how Manning and Polian are back bitching about the rules, this time complaining about how the NFL moved the umpire behind the line of scrimmage.  Peyton, you have to be kidding me.  Peyton, I try so hard to respect you, and you’re a hell of a quarterback.  But how can I take you seriously when you moan about any minor disruption to your OCD-dominated delicate routine?  And then there’s the pathetic way they ended last season by throwing in the towel at 14-0.  What a bunch of losers.  Expect karmic retribution this year, especially with them being the Super Bowl losers.

PREDICTION: 10-6, 1st AFC SOUTH.

4. New England Patriots – LAST YEAR: 10-6, 1st AFC EAST, LOST 1st ROUND OF PLAYOFFS.

The Patriots just jumped up a few spots in my ranking because of the alleged Brandon Spikes chat roulette sex tape.  Wes Welker’s early return is a big boon to the offense, and with Randy Moss in a contract year, he should either be highly motivated to perform for a new deal or go completely in the tank mentally.  I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt, but if the defense can’t play better than it did last Thursday against the Rams, then it might be a long year of 36-32 CFL-style shootouts.  Bill Belichick will be pulling a Bugs Bunny this season, serving as the head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator.  Why not just coach the entire team by himself?  Did Vince Lombardi have assistants?  Did he need them?  Apparently Bill doesn’t, which is another reason why he is superior.  The Pats will make a playoff run out of the wild card spot, but won’t make the big game this year.  Maybe in 2011 when the defense has one more year to mature, but this isn’t their year.

PREDICTION: 10-6, 2nd AFC EAST.

3. New York Jets – LAST YEAR: 9-7, 2nd AFC EAST, LOST AFC CHAMPIONSHIP.

There is a lot of potential for a fall off a cliff here—a somewhat overachieving season last year, which was basically gifted to them by the Colts’ and Bengals’ lack of stones, and being the beneficiaries of the Chargers’ annual January collapse.  Still, the Jets are pretty talented.  They’re probably not as good as they think they are, but that bastard Rex Ryan just might convince them that they’re good enough to win the division.  I’d say Mark Sanchez is in line for a sophomore slump, but he pretty much sucked for most of last year, so that wouldn’t really apply.  The Jets have looked very unimpressive in the first few weeks of the preseason, but you can chalk some of that up to the Hard Knocks hoopla, but with the expectation level being what it is, and the New York media and fans looking for a way to christen that brand-new stadium, the pressure will get higher and higher as the season goes on.  They might win the division, but they won’t get as far as last year.

PREDICTION: 11-5, 1st AFC EAST.

2. Baltimore Ravens – LAST YEAR: 9-7, 2nd AFC NORTH, LOST DIVISIONAL ROUND.

The Ravens are pretty stacked, and they are coming in as under-the-radar as a team that smoked the Patriots in Foxborough in last year’s first round can.  Baltimore can pound the ball, they can throw deep, they now have Anquan Boldin as the go-to receiver they have lacked for pretty much the entire history of their franchise, and they can still play defense.  They don’t have quite the firepower of the Chargers or the Colts, but their head coach is balls-to-the-wall and they are ready to take the next step.

PREDICTION: 12-4, 1st AFC NORTH.

1.San Diego Chargers – LAST YEAR: 13-3, 1st AFC WEST, LOST DIVISIONAL ROUND.

At times, the Chargers can look downright scary, especially on offense.  They did the best thing they could have done in the offseason is cutting LaDainian Tomlinson loose—it was obvious he was bringing the team down, and his very presence had a negative karmic influence on the locker room.  Addition by subtraction will be the rule here.  Unfortunately, when it comes to the postseason, the Chargers are still going to be the whiny, sackless little bitches that they’ve always been, which will make watching them cough up the #1 seed at home in the divisional round all the more entertaining.

PREDICTION: 13-3, 1st AFC WEST.

PLAYOFFS

Wild Card Round:

Patriots 30, Colts 27

Jets 16, Texans 10

Divisional Round:

Patriots 24, Chargers 21

Ravens 42, Jets 7

AFC Championship:

Ravens 32, Patriots 28

By BostonMac

Ryan is a teacher, writer, journalist, basketball coach, sports aficionado, occasional real estate agent, and political junkie. He graduated from both the College of the Holy Cross (bachelor's) and Boston College (Master's), and knows anyone who has never heard of Holy Cross probably would never have gotten in there anyway. He is an unabashed Boston sports fan and homer who, according to lore, once picked the Patriots to win for 25 straight weeks on the "NFL Picks Show," which he co-hosts with Vin Diec, R.J. Warner, and Burton DeWitt. He is also an original co-host of SportsColumn's "Poor Man's PTI." He is married, lame, and a lifelong Massachusetts resident (except for a brief sojourn into the wilds of Raleigh, NC) who grew up in North Attleboro and currently lives and works in Everett.

5 replies on “Into the Great Wide Open – 2010 AFC Preview”

Green Bay. Maybe the Lord will be merciful and will never make us hear from Brett Favre again.

I’m not big on the Bengals. Of course, after they inevitably thump the Patriots this weekend, I’ll probably have them as SB favorites.

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