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Week 4 2008 NFL Picks and Podcast

We’re nearing the quarter pole of a very entertaining NFL season. However, the schedule makers must have needed a break as this is one of the worst slate of games we’ve seen in a while. Nevertheless we trudge on and pick the week 4 games. The featured games this week are Cardinals @ Jets, Vikings @ Titans, Redskins @ Cowboys, and Ravens at Steelers, which we pick against the spread. Good luck in your office pools.

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NFL Week 4 2008 Picks

MATCHUP  Vegas  Vinny  BostonMac  Trevor  RJ Warner
Niners @ Saints Saints Saints Niners Saints
Broncos @ Chiefs Broncos Broncos Broncos Broncos
Cards @ Jets Cards Jets Jets Jets
Falcons @ Panthers Panthers Panthers Panthers Panthers
Vikings @ Titans Titans Titans Titans Titans
Packers @ Bucs Packers Packers Packers Packers
Texans @ Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars
Browns @ Bengals Browns Bengals Browns Browns
Chargers @ Raiders Chargers Chargers Chargers Chargers
Bills @ Rams Bills Bills Bills Bills
Redskins @ Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys
Eagles @ Bears Eagles Eagles Eagles Eagles
Ravens @ Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers
Prev Week 11-5 (.688) 10-6 (.625) 12-4 (.750) 8-8 (.500)
Overall 30-17 (.638) 32-15 (.681) 31-16 (.660) 29-18 (.617)
LOCKS 2-1 1-2 2-1 0-3

Featured Games Against the Spread

MATCHUP  Vegas  Vinny  BostonMac  Trevor  RJ Warner
Cards @ Jets (-1) Cards Jets Jets Jets
Vikings @ Titans (-3) Titans Titans Titans Titans
Redskins @ Cowboys (-3) Redskins Redskins Redskins Redskins
Ravens @ Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers Ravens
ATS 2-2 3-1 2-2 1-3

Locks of the Week

[Editor’s Note: This year, we’re making the Locks of the Week a little more interesting as we have a side bet amongst the four experts. The person with the most money at the end of the year in Locks betting takes home all the money. Disclaimer: The amounts discussed are for illustrative and entertainment purposes only. Gambling may be illegal in your locale.]

Vegas Vinny: Most of you punters (that’s British for gambler) already know that the spread isn’t set by how much better a team is but in order to get the most even betting on both sides. Which is the only way I can explain the 9.5 points that the Broncos are giving to the Chiefs. The Chiefs are the worst team in the NFL (and Larry Johnson gets the award for FF Most Precipitous Fall 2008) and judging by their efforts in recent games should be relegated to Serie B.

The Broncos are at least 2 TDs better than the Chiefs. So why the relatively low spread? Partly because of the return of Damon Huard (oooooh) but mostly because of the “Arrowhead Mystique”. Bettors have gotten it into their heads that the Chiefs are unbeatable at Arrowhead. And this was true… in the 90s. We’re talking about a team that won 2 games at home last season. Let’s see, the #1 scoring team in the NFL (38ppg) vs the #30 (10.7 ppg). Jay Cutler vs Damon Huard. Mike Shanahan vs Herm Edwards. The Broncos’ achilles heel is their defense but luckily the Chiefs have nobody to exploit that. I love this game, even at Broncos (-9.5) and I’ll put $110 to win $100 on it. (Balance= $1045)

More betting tips (love this 4 team parlay):
* Chargers (-7.5) over Raiders
* Titans (-3) over the Vikings
* Eagles (-3) over Bears

BostonMac: I’m doing it, I’m jumping on the bandwagon. I can’t let Trevor have all the fun on the Tennessee train. The Titans D isn’t going to allow the Vikings offense near the end zone. Gus Frerotte may have played a decent game last week, but let’s see him do it two weeks in a row, especially against the #3 pass defense in the league, featuring two guys (Greg Hope and Cortland Finnegan) who have four interceptions in three games. AP hasn’t been able to really get off track so far this year, and it won’t happen this week. Vegas is still sticking it to the Titans so let’s keep jumping aboard. I’m putting $110 to win $100 on the TITANS (-3).

Other lines I like: New Orleans giving 5 to San Fran, Green Bay getting 1 at Tampa Bay, Denver giving 9.5 to Kansas City and hitting the over of 46.5.
(Balance = $950)

Trevor F: My friend and I have come up with our “Tennessee Theory” as to why they
are so undervalued and are year in and year out giants against the spread.
Since they are from the South where college football is king and aren’t
from a large media center like New York, Boston, Dallas or San Francisco
or from a town that eats, sleeps and breathes NFL football like Green Bay
or Kansas City they don’t have an overwhelming amount fans wagering on
them because “homer” ties. This leads to their line constantly being bid
the other way. Two years ago, Tennessee went on their monumental
eight-game winning streak against the spread and it stunned people. Last
season while they did not string together eight straight wins against the
line, they won way more than they lost. This season they are a fat 3-0
against the spread and are moving to 4-0 this week. I cannot believe they
are only giving three points at HOME to the Vikings. That defense is
going shut down Adrian Peterson and force Gus Frerotte into a multiple
interception day. Tennessee (-3) wins and they win going away. $110 to win $100. (Balance = $1105)

RJ: In the shitheap of games that we’ll call Week 4 of the NFL season, we have to lean on an old NFC Central Division rivalry, Tampa vs. Green, as the best game of the week. The Bucs are high right now coming off their late rally against the Bears and Brian Griese’s 407 yards on 67 attempts at Soldier Field; meanwhile the Pack (why do we have to use nicknames of nicknames?) came back down a little against the ‘Boys (dammit) on SNF. Aarron Rodgers did not play poorly (290 yds, no INT) and won’t get rattled on the road. TB can’t expect to win every week throwing the ball like that. Green Bay (-1) will control this game and win by 3-5 points in the shadow of that stupid pirate ship. $110 (Balance = $835)

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