In 2005, the AFC West was home to three clear cut playoff-caliber teams. Unfortunately, only one of them, Denver, actually reached the postseason. This is probably the deepest division in the AFC and may be at risk to beat each other up all year, causing another couple of playoff-worthy teams to be cut down again. Find out in the fourth part of the series…Denver Broncos
Key Additions:
Javon Walker, WR; Kenard Lang, DE; Kyle Koiser, OT; Nate Webster, LB; Willie Middlebrooks, DB; Jay Cutler (Draft), QB
Key Losses:
Trevor Pryce, DE; Mike Anderson, RB; Jeb Putzier, TE
Strengths:
Much like last year, the major strength of the Broncos is their veteran experience and consistency. Their team growth went with Jake Plummer’s growth and the Broncos finally met their potential last year. The quarterback situation looks even better this year, as the addition of Jay Cutler gives them a guy to look for in the future. Plummer will again have great protection from his offensive line and a great weapon to throw to with the addition of Javon Walker. Many question whether Walker will fully recover from his knee injury, but, while I don’t have a crystal ball to predict such things, I can tell you that Walker is a great receiver when healthy. The defense also looks really good again this year. As if Denver hadn’t plucked enough of Cleveland’s d-line, in 2006, they finished the job this off season by nabbing DE Kenard Lang. This should fill the hole left by Trevor Pryce, keeping the front seven steady. The secondary is also solid, led by Champ Bailey and John Lynch.
Weaknesses:
In past years, the “my grandmother could rush for 1500 yards behind the Denver o-line” jokes have flown freely. However, Denver may not have a back who can do that this season. Neither Ron Dayne nor Tatum Bell has ever shown that they have the ability to carry the rock twenty times a game and may be left to spell each other all season. While Ron Dayne has shown flashes of brilliance over the course of his career, I don’t trust him to be a reliable back week in and week out. Tatum Bell has crazy speed and agility, but lacks the ability to successfully run between the tackles. This leaves Bell with two or three 20-yard runs per game, but 10-15 one- or two-yard runs as well. The defense, while it looks solid, is not enough to carry a team with a one-dimensional offense. Yes, Denver will be a one-dimensional offense. Don’t forget that the offense won’t be run by Gary Kubiak this year and, without a dominant back, the offensive line schemes won’t seem as ingenious as it has been in previous seasons.
Prediction:
10-6, second in AFC West
Denver looks good on paper, but they just didn’t make enough improvements to keep up with this rapidly growing division and conference. This is another near miss for an AFC West team.
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Kansas City Chiefs
Key Additions:
Ty Law, DB; Quentin Griffen, RB; Chris Johnson, DB; Tamba Hali (Draft), DE; Brodie Croyle (Draft), QB
Key Losses:
Tony Richardson, FB; Todd Collins, QB; Gary Stills, LB; Marc Boerigter, WR; Chris Horn, WR
Strengths:
The Chiefs’ offense will be the best in the NFL in 2006 and it all lies on the shoulders of Larry Johnson. LJ has the ability to far and away become the best back in the league. He’s fast, he’s powerful, he possesses great vision, and he’s durable as far as we know. Granted we haven’t seen LJ start a full season, we also haven’t seen any reason to believe that he’ll break down, even after 5 games with 30+ carries in ’05. The loss of Tony Richardson might hurt the running game, but Kansas City still has a great offensive line and will be good in both run blocking and pass protecting. And speaking of the pass, don’t forget about the game’s best quarterback who nobody pays any attention to. Trent Green has silently compiled three straight 4000+ yard seasons from 2003-05. The only other guy who reached the 4000 mark in ’05 was Tom Brady. While it doesn’t seem like Green has solid weapons around him, he has the best tight end in the league in Tony Gonzalez, the consistency of Eddie Kennison, and the deep threats of Samie Parker and Dante Hall to turn to.
Weaknesses:
The defense is still a major weakness in Kansas City. The addition of Ty Law certainly helps the secondary, allowing them to cover most number one receivers one-on-one and leaving a safety open to help out in other ways, but great defense starts with the front seven and KC didn’t do much in the off season to help that out. Without a front seven, the secondary needs to work harder to cover their guys as quarterbacks have more time to throw the ball. Obviously, this will also lead to the Chiefs having difficulty stopping the run; not a good sign in a division that includes LT, LaMont Jordan, and the Dayne/Bell combo.
Prediction:
11-5, first in AFC West
The Chiefs’ defense may have some problems, but the offense is good enough to cover for them. Last year the team should’ve made the playoffs, so imagine what they’ll do after the improvements made in the off season to the defense and the growth of LJ and the offense.
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Oakland Raiders
Key Additions:
Aaron Brooks, QB; Tyrone Poole, DB; Duane Starks, DB; Lance Johnstone, DE; Michael Huff (Draft), DB
Key Losses:
Charles Woodson, DB; Ted Washington, DT; Ed Jasper, DT; Renaldo Hill, DB; Tim Johnson, LB
Strengths:
New head coach Art Shell may be the best thing this Oakland team has going for them. Shell has already come in looking to set a new standard for the Raiders’ players. He demands discipline and consistency, something Oakland has lacked for years. Shell wants to change the image of the Raiders, but this may take some time. Certainly, this team already has some bad habits and won’t be able to adapt to the new style this season. However, in two or three years, look for the Raiders to be back in form. As far as the players go, the running back situation will be the lungs of this offense. LaMont Jordan should improve on his good 2005 numbers and bring some sort of consistency to the team. On defense, the secondary might be alright with the additions of Poole, Starks and the rookie, Huff.
Weaknesses:
The addition of Aaron Brooks to throw to Randy Moss may have those in the Bay Area excited about 2006, but it doesn’t have anybody who really knows Aaron Brooks doing cartwheels for Oakland. Brooks is extremely inconsistent (inconsistency seems to be a motif with this team) and is known for making way too many bad decisions at key times. Brooks mixed with Randy Moss, who only plays when he feels like it, doesn’t exactly sound like a winning combo to me. The defense also looks bad with one of the worst front sevens in the league. Those of you fantasy owners out there should mark your calendar for the Sundays when your running back goes against the Raiders. He’ll be a great start on those days.
Prediction:
5-11, last in AFC West
While it won’t show this season, the Raiders have taken a step in the right direction by hiring Art Shell. I truly believe he’s going to be the savior of this organization, so don’t be surprised to find an overhaul of poor character players, followed by a winning team within 3-4 years.
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San Diego Chargers
Key Additions:
Marlon McCree, DB; Aaron Shea, TE; Antonio Cromartie (Draft), DB; Charlie Whitehurst (Draft), QB
Key Losses:
Drew Brees, QB; Ben Leber, LB; Reche Caldwell, WR; Bob Hallen, C; Justin Peele, TE
Strengths:
Any time you have LT on your team, the running game is a strength. He’s the most versatile player in the NFL (excluding WR/HB/DB/KR/PR Troy Brown) with his ability to run or catch passes out of the backfield. Antonio Gates is also a great target for young Philip Rivers to throw to, though his numbers may not be so great this year. The defense is also pretty good. They made some key additions to the secondary to support an already solid front seven. Of course, they aren’t a top five defense in the NFL, but they have enough to scare their opponents and give them something to think about.
Weaknesses:
Quarterback is by far the biggest problem in San Diego right now. Rivers is very inexperienced and that will affect the entire team around him. Other positions can afford this type of inexperience, but not quarterback. Yes, Rivers has spent a lot of time around Drew Brees, holding a clipboard, but that is nothing like actual game action. The entire offense is going to struggle because of this, as teams will simply put 8 or 9 men in the box to stop LT and just make Rivers try to beat them. The receiving corps is also pretty weak outside of Antonio Gates. Keenan McCardell leads the wideouts, but he’s 36 years old and you have to wonder how long he can play at the top of his game.
Prediction:
8-8, third in AFC West
By letting Drew Brees slip away to the Saints, the Chargers set themselves back at least 2 years in achieving their ultimate goal, a Super Bowl. They had all the pieces in place. They just needed to retain Brees and add a few more playmakers on defense and you could have been talking about a Super Bowl contender. Now they’re just another .500 team.
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Final Standings
Kansas City 11-5
Denver 10-6
San Diego 8-8
Oakland 5-11
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Stay tuned for the upcoming NFC East preview…
(Note: This article was originally written for The Bet Doctor.)