March Madness: This Year’s Sleepers

By David J. Cohen

It’s that time of year again. It’s the time of year where the true passion of basketball takes center stage. It’s a time where buzzer beaters, big plays, and upsets captivate us all.

It’s also that time of year where millions of Americans try to create the perfect bracket and take home the cash from various tournament pools. And as the tournament tips off everyone feels that they have the winning combination of teams to get a little richer. Then Valparaiso hits a half-court shot and, well, better luck next year.

Picking the upsets in the big dance is tough enough as it is, but this year promises to be especially difficult. It is truly wide open for the first time since 2000. After UConn, Villanova, Memphis, and Duke there is a noticeable decline of dominance. It seems as if anyone can win, and thus, there should be upsets all over the place in this year’s big dance. Oh yeah, and all four #1 seeds won’t make the final four. That never happens. As a matter of fact, usually one of them is bounced in the second round (last year was an exception).

One of the keys to picking a good bracket is knowing the teams before Selection Sunday. Here’s a little description of six teams that may wreck your bracket if you’re not careful.Kansas (21-7), BIG 12 – They are young, athletic, and are turning it up at the right time. In essence, they are the opposite of last year’s team which fell to Bucknell in the opening round last year. They are 2nd in the Big 12 and are a dangerous team to watch. They are extremely young for a college team, with over 2/3 of their rotation consisting of freshmen and sophomores. Their starting guards are both freshman and are their offensive playmakers. Brandon Rush is averaging 14 points and 6 rebounds a game. Mario Chalmers is averaging 11 points and 4 assists a game. The Jayhawks have a great deal of size in the frontcourt and get solid scoring and rebounding from the bunch. They also have a deep bench, going 11 deep. They have enough athletes to play an overly big lineup or a small guard-oriented lineup. They are uncharacteristic of a young team in some aspects, particularly in their defensive play. They hold their opponents to an average of 37% shooting, which is #1 in the nation. Also, they average 10 steals a contest, 13th best in the country, and block 6 shots a game, which is 18th best. They score about 75 points a game, which leads to a wide margin of victory. The Jayhawks average a 15 point win, which is impressive when you look at their schedule. They have played Arizona, Nevada, Kentucky, Arkansas, and California in their non-conference schedule in addition to their conference games. They are very good at dribble penetration and dishing it to the open man. They are 7th in the country in assists per game. Their size allows them to dictate the boards, forcing their opponents to have one shot a possession while giving themselves second chances. They are 14th in the nation in rebounding margin. The Jayhawks have also overcome adversity. There were high expectations for the team at the beginning of the year. They hit rock-bottom for the year after losing at Missouri, falling to 9-4 and looking like a team that would fade away. Since that game the Jayhawks are 12-1, with their only loss coming at Texas. If Kansas has a prevalent weakness it is related to their youth in turnovers and fouls. Overall, this is a team that should easily reach the Sweet 16 and appears to be poised to make a possible final four run. They match up well against Duke and are one of the only teams in the tourney that has the talent at guard to match up with Villanova. If all of the statistics match up and Kansas can overcome their inexperience they may pull a 2000 Syracuse and cut down the nets.

Marquette (20-9), BIG EAST – They are ranked 6th in the toughest conference in the country. A little side note for picking close games this year: if the game is a toss-up and one of the teams is from the Big East (other than Syracuse) take that team. The teams in this conference have virtually been in March Madness since January. As for Marquette, they are very talented and have defeated UConn, Pittsburgh, and Georgetown this year. They are led by senior F Steve Novak, who averages 17 points and 6 rebounds a game. They are a young team, with their top 3 guards being freshman. This group is led by Dominic James, who averages 15 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists a game. The other four forwards in the rotation get about equal playing time. Their production as a unit could determine how far the Golden Eagles soar. They are a shooting team and need to outscore their opponents. Novak is one of the best 3 point shooters in the nation. He is 6th in made 3 pointers and 11th in 3-point percentage in the country. As a team Marquette is in the top 20 in 3-pointers. Their weaknesses are rebounding, turnovers (because the guards are freshman), and fouling (why they have to rotate 4 forwards). They will be in the area of a 6th seed and could be this year’s West Virginia as far as style of play if they end up in the right region.

Michigan State (20-10), BIG TEN – This team clearly has the talent to win it all. However, this year has been unfulfilling of that potential. They were supposed to win the Big Ten conference and be a contender for a #1 seed this year. They are led by a talented backcourt. Senior G Maurice Ager is one of the best in the country when he shows up. He is averaging 19 points and 4 rebounds a game. Junior G Shannon Brown averages 18 points and 4 rebounds a night. They are anchored inside by one of the best big men in the country in 6’11” C Paul Davis, who averages 18 points and 9 rebounds a contest. For the talent of these three, they have underachieved this season. They’re a great rebounding team and a great shooting team. They’re 13th in shooting percentage and 17th in rebounding. They also move the ball incredibly well, ranking 16th in assists. The weakness and the true crutch of the team this year has been the defense. They foul way too often, allowing teams to hang around at the line. Also, they are 162nd in field goal percentage defense. This is the key for the Spartans. If they can apply their athleticism on the defensive end and impose their physical inside presence while getting the play from their starting guards, they could do exactly what they did in last year’s tournament. They came in as a 5 seed and reached the final four, busting many brackets in the process. That squad should have improved this year. Head Coach Tom Izzo has a knack for getting the most out of his team in March. If they figure it out they have a great chance to return to the final 4.

Bucknell (24-4), PATRIOT – They were the initial Cinderella of last year’s tourney, knocking off a reeling Kansas team. They have kept it going this year and have dominated their conference. They are undefeated in conference play. They come into the tournament with a good chance to improve on last year’s success and reach the Sweet 16 if they get the right matchups. They played Villanova and Duke in non-conference play and were crushed. Teams with a lot of athleticism create problems for the Bison because they cannot contain these types of teams with their style of play. Bucknell plays a suffocating half court game that can create problems for teams that cannot push the floor. They hold opponents to about 38% from the field and around 55 points a game, both which are top 5 marks in the nation. They do not score a lot because of the system but shoot a high percentage, shooting 47% from the field. Three guys are the cornerstone of the Bison offense. Junior 6’11” C Chris McNaughton is a solid mid-range shooter and averages 13 points and 5 rebounds a game in just 27 minutes a contest. Senior G/F Charles Lee is a solid playmaker and very aggressive on the boards, averaging 13 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists a game. G Kevin Bettencourt is the outside sharpshooter, averaging 12 points and 3 assists a game. Bucknell is very tough to beat when all three of these guys are on their game. The weaknesses of the Bison are size and playing from behind. Also, they are not great from long range, as Bettencourt is their only great consistent 3-point threat. Bucknell has a great chance to reach the sweet 16 in the right bracket with their style of play. They could blow up brackets with an elite 8 appearance if the right upsets fall in place.

UAB (21-5), CONFERENCE USA – This team will create fits for whoever runs into them in the tournament. They are a unit that returns several players from the previous two teams. They reached the Sweet 16 in 2004 and won a tournament game last year. They are a quick team led by their guards. The guards are offensively headed by Marvett McDonald, who averages 15 points a game. Another guard, `Squeaky’ Johnson is the spark plug, leading the fast break and generating steals. He averages over 6 assists and close to 3 steals a game, which both rank 8th in the nation. They get good play out of their forwards, led by G/F Wen Mukubu. They are a small team up front, which suits their fast, up tempo style. They can run up the score and can string points in bunches. They are playing extremely well of late, highlighted by an 80-74 win over Memphis on the 2nd of March. They only lost by 7 at Memphis earlier this season, which proves that they can hang around with any team in the country. However, they have the weaknesses of a fast-break team. They have a tendency to let you score too; they have to outscore you to win. They are not that physical inside defensively and are terrible on the boards. Out of 326 teams statistically ranked by the NCAA (from which all team statistical rankings have been taken) the Blazers are 324th in rebounding margin. They whether their defensive lapses by creating turnovers that parlay into points. They are 2nd in the country in steals per game. They do not turn it over much either, which is impressive given their style of play. They could go very far in the right region. They might run into Memphis again, and that would decide how far they may go. If they get past Memphis, it’s quite possible they may go to Indy. A game against Villanova would be interesting since UAB has the quickness and guards to keep up with them. I am hoping the people creating the brackets generate a possible Tennessee – UAB or George Washington – UAB 2nd round matchup. The scoring would reach triple digits in regulation. Overall UAB us a true threat to many teams in the tourney but could also lose in the opening round against a well-balanced, physical team.

These teams could go deep into March and mess up thousands of brackets. This final team probably won’t make a run at Indy but could destroy thousands of brackets on day 1 of the big dance. They have a very good chance to be in a position to create the biggest upset of the tournament in the eyes of the media. If projections hold up they will become the first 15 seed to advance since Hampton in 2001 and could be the first 15 seed to make the Sweet 16. Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the Pacific Tigers.

Pacific (22-7), BIG WEST – They won a game last year in the big dance, beating Pittsburgh as an 8 seed. The majority of the unit returns to the tournament a highly experienced team. The reason for the low seed would be their pushover schedule. They have only played two teams all year that could appear in the tournament: Western Kentucky and Texas A&M (Pacific won both games). Most of their rotation consists of juniors and seniors. Their best player is F Christian Maraker, who averages 17 points and 9 rebounds a game. He is a great mid-range shooter and can shoot the three, stretching out opposing man defenses. They have 3 solid guards led by Johnny Gray, who averages 15 points and 3 assists a game. As with most veteran teams the Tigers have a short rotation, heavily relying on just 8 players. They can push the ball at times but like to run a structured offense. They are 11th in the nation in shooting percentage at 49%. They have held their opponents to just 41% shooting. They are able to get their rebounds but will be overpowered on the glass by bigger or highly physical teams. They are a balanced team that usually has beaten weaker competition by a good margin. If they are indeed a 15 seed they will probably play Gonzaga. The ‘Zags are stumbling into the tourney despite the winning streak (their last loss was on December 27th against Memphis), winning by a combined 8 points against San Francisco, San Diego and Loyola-Marymount (who would have won if not for a missed lay-up). These three teams are a combined 41-47. This Gonzaga team, despite the 27-3 record, is not like previous teams in that there is not much of a supporting cast. F Adam Morrison, F J.P. Batista and G Derek Raivio are most of their offense. Morrison scores on average 28 a night and Batista gives an average of 19 points and 10 rebounds a night. Raivio is a solid outside shooter but is terribly inconsistent. Gonzaga doesn’t play great defense, which is a crutch to this team and is the reason teams like Loyola can play with them. In a game with Pacific, Maraker’s outside shooting would likely draw Batista out of the paint (since Morrison is a defensive liability at times). This could put Batista in foul trouble, which has been a problem for him at various points this season. It would also allow Pacific to get second chance opportunities as Gonzaga’s best rebounder is drawn out of the paint. With Pacific’s high percentage shooting they would easily score 80 points. They would allow Morrison to get his points and concentrate on stopping the other players. The Tiger guards should be able to shut Raivio down. This should make the game a half court battle which would further aid the Tigers. Morrison may score 40 points but Gonzaga would lose the game, since this Pacific team has won in the tournament and would not choke in the closing minutes. Historically, only 4 15 seeds have beaten a 2 seed but all 4 of those teams had this in common entering the tourney: 1) They had won 9 of their last 10 games and at least three in a row, 2) They all have regular-season records below .800, and 3) They averaged 37% to 58% of their scoring from guards. There have been 12 teams that were 15 seeds and shared these qualities – they are 4-8 in tournament play against the number 2 seeds. Pacific fits the mold of the winning 15 seed. If they draw Gonzaga they will be the upset story of the first round. This would put them in great position to advance to the Sweet 16, which would make them the first 15 seed to do so. Pacific has the ability to make it all happen. Add to it the fact that Gonzaga has suffered early exits in the last 2 years and it seems destined for Pacific to shock the nation. Just make sure to remember me when you win the office pool.

These six teams are the best candidates to be the bracket busters in this year’s tourney. These teams should help to make the 2006 tournament one for the ages. All that’s left is to fill out the brackets, sit back, and enjoy the greatest competition in all of sports.
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SOURCES
www.espn.com
-player stats, history of 15 seeds
www.ncaasports.com
-team stat ranks